One of the more curious bubble situations is developing in Winston-Salem. We start this week’s ACC notebook with a look at Wake Forest’s NCAA Tournament case.

For the 2nd consecutive season, Wake Forest sits on the bubble, and despite another strong ACC campaign most brackets aren’t including the Demon Deacons in the Field of 68.

A season ago, Wake Forest missed the field despite finishing 23-9 in the regular season. When the bracket was released, the Demon Deacons were the 2nd team out, with the committee opting for Notre Dame as the final ACC team instead, even though the Deacs had defeated the Fighting Irish in late February.

A year later, the ACC is stronger, but Wake Forest (17-9, 9-6 ACC) appears headed for a repeat omission. In fact, the Demon Deacons are worse off right now than a year ago. In 2021-22, they finished 35th in KenPom; this season, they sit 75th, well behind the bulk of the projected Field of 68. Wake Forest is also 75th in the NET, largely due to a disappointing 0-5 record in Quad 1 games.

These numbers could still improve.

Wake Forest plays 3 more Quad 1 games down the stretch: at Miami, at NC State and at Syracuse. There are chances to bolster its profile, to be sure. But what is clear is that a 2nd consecutive season where Wake Forest played a soft non-conference slate is hurting the Demon Deacons as Selection Sunday nears. Down seasons by Wisconsin, which Wake Forest beat on the road, and North Carolina, which Wake Forest routed last week, have also not helped the Demon Deacons’ case.

In the days of the “eye test,” though, Wake Forest would be in the field with room to spare.

Sure, the Demon Deacons lost to LSU on a neutral floor, hardly an inspiring defeat. But LSU was unbeaten at the time and playing excellent basketball. Consider Wake Forest’s other losses, and there aren’t really bad ones. In fact, Wake Forest has lost 3 games in the past 3 weeks by a total of 6 points: at Pittsburgh, at Duke and at Joel Coliseum to NC State. Those are 3 NCAA Tournament teams, and Wake Forest was more than competitive in each of those games.

In between, the Demon Deacons manhandled North Carolina, another ACC bubble team, clobbered Notre Dame in South Bend and avoided a letdown upset against Georgia Tech.

Wake Forest is playing good basketball and likely belongs in March Madness. Whether the Demon Deacons can grab the types of wins that move the metrics — rather than just passing the eye test — remains to be seen.

ACC’s top transfers, revisited

The transfer portal giveth and the transfer portal taketh away.

Prior to the season, we knew that Miami, which brought in Kansas State star Nijel Pack along with Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Norchad Omier, had done well in the transfer portal.

We thought that North Carolina had done well, too, grabbing Northwestern’s outstanding 4-man, Pete Nance, to replace Brady Manek.

Elsewhere?

There were questions, especially at places like Pitt, which took a flier on a host of players who had plenty of talent but plenty more to prove at the collegiate level. As March approaches, it’s time to revisit what we got right — and wrong — about the ACC’s adventures in the transfer portal.

Here’s a list of the top 5 ACC transfers in the 2022-23 season:

5. DJ Burns Jr., NC State: The big man from Winthrop took some time to acclimate to Power 6 college basketball, but he’s been a force in ACC play, scoring in double figures in all but 2 of the Wolfpack’s conference games. He’s also played over 25 minutes a night just twice in the past month, which might be the difference between the 1st round and the Sweet 16 next month. Burns is averaging 12 points and 5 rebounds on the season and has posted 2 double-doubles on the campaign.

4. Nijel Pack, Miami: Was the big-time NIL investment worth it? One of the season’s biggest NIL stories was the million-plus package the Hurricanes put together for Pack. To date, the Coral Gables orange juice has been worth the squeeze. Pack took a little time to get going, but he’s been sensational over the past month, scoring 20-plus points in wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson.

He heats up like a microwave, too — his 17 points in 6 minutes sealed a come-from-behind win over Virginia Tech that started this tremendous February run for the Hurricanes.

3. Norchad Omier, Miami: The Arkansas State transfer has given the Hurricanes the balance inside that last season’s Elite 8 outfit lacked. Omier ranks 12th nationally at 10.4 rebounds per game, and he’s 15th in offensive rebound percentage (16.0). He’s also picked up his offense of late, scoring in double figures in 4 of Miami’s current 5-game win streak, including 17 points in its win over Duke. Omier is averaging a double-double per night, with 13.8 points and 10 rebounds per contest.

2. Blake Hinson, Pittsburgh: Pitt is chasing its 1st ACC championship, largely due to the surprising brilliance of Hinson. A big-time recruit at Ole Miss, Hinson couldn’t stay healthy for Kermit Davis. A fresh start and a clean bill of health have made all the difference. Hinson is averaging a team-high 15.9 points and has added 6.3 rebounds per tilt for the Panthers, creating constant mismatch problems on the wing while playing a career-high 31.5 minutes per game.

Hinson has also been 1 of Pitt’s best defenders, grading out as “excellent” in on-ball defense, per Hoops Lens.

1. Tyree Appleby, Wake Forest: The Florida transfer may give Wake Forest its 2nd consecutive ACC Player of the Year. Appleby leads the ACC in both scoring (18.6 points) and assists (6.2) as the conductor for 1 of the league’s best offenses. The Demon Deacons rank 29th in the nation in KenPom Offensive Efficiency as a result, and Appleby has been, as you’d expect, brilliant in all of Wake’s biggest wins, scoring 18 points and dishing out 8 dimes in its win over Duke and dropping 35 points, with 11 assists, in a rout of North Carolina last week. Appleby was excellent in the NCAA Tournament with Florida and may get a chance to play in another 1 as a super senior with the Demon Deacons.

Bubble games to watch

Another week on the bubble in the ACC means big-time bubble matchups to watch. Last week, we wrote that North Carolina needed a 3-0 week to feel good about its NCAA Tournament hopes. The Tar Heels went 1-2 and find themselves hanging by a thread as a “Last Four In” team in BracketMatrix.  Another loss this week could knock them out altogether.

Here’s the Tar Heels’ week, along with other key bubble matchups in the ACC:

Saturday, Feb. 18

Wake Forest at No. 15 Miami (2 p.m., ACC Network Extra): A better television destination would have been nice for this game, which features the best team in the ACC against 1 of the most desperate. The backcourts will be must-see television, so find a stream.

Pitt at Virginia Tech (5 p.m., ACC Network): The Hokies don’t have much business being in the NCAA Tournament conversation but somehow keep showing up on “under consideration” and “next four out” lists. Any at-large hopes require a home win over Pitt on Saturday night.

Duke at Syracuse (6 p.m., ESPN): Was Syracuse’s win over NC State on Tuesday night the start of something or too little, too late? Our guess is too little, too late. The Orange have just 2 Quad 1 or 2 wins after the victory, although a Quad 1 win over Duke would be a sign that we should ignore Syracuse at our own peril at the ACC Tournament in Greensboro next month. A victory for Duke would give the Blue Devils their 1st quality road win, a potentially key thing come Selection Sunday.

Sunday, Feb. 19

North Carolina at No. 23 NC State (1 p.m., ESPN): A must win for the Heels? A chance to all but eliminate the Tar Heels from at-large consideration for State? Terquavion’s revenge? The storylines are rich after Carolina’s win over the Pack late last month featured a scary injury to Smith, a Leaky Black ejection, and Armando Bacot wearing shades to throw shade. This rivalry rules.

Tuesday, Feb. 21

No. 15 Miami at Virginia Tech (7 p.m., ESPNU): If the Hokies manage to upset Pitt at home on Saturday, their narrow path to an at-large bid will also require a win over the Hurricanes on Tuesday. Virginia Tech has been great in Blacksburg this season and nearly won in Coral Gables. Which Hokies team shows up? The 1 that felled Duke and fought toe to toe with the Canes in Coral Gables or the 1 that laid an egg against Boston College? We shall see.