ESPN’s FPI predicts ACC champion in 2023

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) views the ACC as a two-horse race in 2023.

Clemson is the overwhelming favorite to win the conference title this upcoming season. The predictive model gives the Tigers a 53.6% chance to win the ACC.

Florida State is the second-most likely champion. Despite entering the new campaign as a top-five team in most preseason polls, FPI gives the Seminoles only a 23.7% chance of winning the ACC.

North Carolina’s percentage chance of claiming the conference title sits at 7% while no other team is above 4%.

Clemson won the title last season with a 39-10 thrashing of the Tar Heels. After Pitt and Wake Forest played for the championship in 2021 — ending a string of six consecutive ACC championships for Clemson — the Tigers made it back to the game and won their seventh in eight years.

But, the question on the tip of every analyst’s tongue in 2023 is whether the balance of power is beginning to shift. With Clemson moving into a new offensive era (coordinator Garrett Riley, quarterback Cade Klubnik) and Florida State looking like a legitimate College Football Playoff threat, can FSU finally break through and win its first conference title since 2014?

The Noles are a trendy pick to do so. FPI seems to be sticking with the safer bet.

Each team’s percentage chance to win the conference title, via FPI, is below:

1. Clemson (53.6%)
2. Florida State (23.7%)
3. North Carolina (7.0%)
4. Pittsburgh (3.9%)
5. Miami (3.2%)
6. NC State (3.1%)
7. Syracuse (2.1%)
8. Louisville (1.9%)
9. Wake Forest (1.0%)
10. Duke (0.2%)
11. Georgia Tech (0.1%)
12. Virginia Tech (0.1%)
13. Boston College (0.0%)
14. Virginia (0.0%)