FiveThirtyEight projects outcome of Duke-North Carolina Final Four game
Duke and North Carolina are slated to meet in a highly-anticipated Final Four matchup on Saturday in New Orleans.
It’s the first-ever meeting for these two arch rivals in the NCAA Tournament. According to FiveThirtyEight’s projection model, Duke has the slight edge.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Blue Devils a 62% chance of victory. The projection also give Duke a 31% chance of winning the National Championship, which is second to only Kansas (41%). UNC has a 15% chance of winning the tournament, per the model.
While 62% may seem like it’s tilted convincingly in Duke’s favor, there’s still plenty of room to imagine a North Carolina victory. According to KenPom’s projection, Duke has a 62% chance of winning. KenPom predicted a final score of 79-75.
These teams split the regular season series, with each team winning on the road. Duke won by 20 in Chapel Hill back on Feb. 5 after Armando Bacot got into early foul trouble.
UNC then shocked the world on March 5 with a 13-point victory. That was Duke’s only regular season loss by more than 5 points.
Duke and UNC will tipoff shortly after the conclusion of Villanova-Kansas on Saturday night.