The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.

Here’s how things stand after 11 weeks:

  • Spenser Davis: 59-47-4
  • Ethan Stone: 56-50-4
  • Paul Harvey: 52-54-4
  • Derek Peterson: 51-55-4

Let’s dive in.

No. 3 Michigan (-19) at Maryland

Spenser Davis: Maryland played Michigan close last season, but that was the first time the Terps have covered vs. the Wolverines since 2014. I’m seeing a highly motivated and focused Michigan squad that has matchup advantages all over the field. Even in a classic look-ahead spot with Ohio State looming next week, I think Michigan covers easily here. PICK: Michigan

Paul Harvey: I understand the turmoil at Michigan, but I think it helps the Wolverines this week. Week 12 is traditionally a trap scenario for Michigan and Ohio State – and Maryland could always pull off a special performance. But with everything going on in Ann Arbor, the only option for the program is to come out intensely focused on the road. PICK: Michigan

Derek Peterson: I don’t think Maryland can win this game, but I also don’t think it’s absurd to suggest the Terps — at home — can get a garbage-time score to cover these 19 points. Maryland has an excellent quarterback. Michigan has been weaponizing emotion for weeks and that can be draining. And there’s a pretty big game after this one for the Wolverines. (I’m also in last place and won’t make up the difference by going with the consensus, so I, like the Terps, am going to play with reckless abandon this week.) PICK: Maryland

Ethan Stone: Ask me earlier in the year and I’d roll with Maryland to cover, but Mike Locksley’s group has looked dreadful the past few weeks, even despite a win over Nebraska. Michigan should win big here. PICK: Michigan

No. 10 Louisville (-1) at Miami

SD: Miami does not have enough of a home-field advantage to warrant this kind of respect. The Hurricanes are better than their record shows (at least defensively), but they have a rattled quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke who has 11 interceptions in his last 5 games. I think Louisville is locked in and will be ready for this test. PICK: Louisville

PH: Jeff Brohm traditionally had some head-scratching stumbles while at Purdue, but I’m not sold Miami gets much of a bump (if any) being at home for this game. PICK: Louisville

DP: Since the shared document our team works in each week for our picks was set up, the line for this game has actually flipped. I’m still taking Louisville. PICK: Louisville

ES: This feels like the perfect chaos loss for Louisville, right? Conventional wisdom tells me to pick Brohm and Co., but it feels like we’re in for a crazy week. This is one that could come back to bite me, but I’ll roll with Miami. PICK: Miami

No. 22 Utah at No. 17 Arizona (-1)

SD: We saw a pretty similar game (stylistically) play out last week with Utah vs. Washington. Like the Huskies, the Wildcats have an elite offense and a suspect defense. An inexplicable fumble on a pick-six made the final score look a bit closer than it should have. I’m taking the Wildcats to win their fifth game in a row. PICK: Arizona

PH: I have been very high on Arizona for a while now, particularly at home. But, I think Utah had a great showing last weekend vs. Washington, and I think the defense will be primed to go in Week 12. PICK: Utah

DP: The battle between Utah’s uber-efficient defense and Arizona’s hyper-efficient offense will be wonderful theater. Does Bryson Barnes make a mistake when Utah has the football going against Arizona’s defense? That’s the matchup to watch. I think the Wildcats can get at least a turnover in a crucial spot. I wonder if, with no Pac-12 title left to play for, we see some Utes who have been gutting it out in recent weeks see a reduced workload. PICK: Arizona 

ES: Arizona just keeps winning and they’re at home. All respect to the Utes and what Kyle Whittingham has done over there, but I just can’t shy away from the Wildcats right now. PICK: Arizona

No. 1 Georgia (-10) at No. 18 Tennessee

SD: Neyland Stadium might genuinely be the best homefield advantage in the country. Tennessee has five ATS wins at home this season, which is second to only Kansas State (six). But I don’t see how the Vols can keep this close for all four quarters. Tennessee’s defense has been leaky in its last three SEC games and Georgia has a truly elite offense. PICK: Georgia

PH: I’ve seen this story too many times to count. Georgia looks questionable in the early-season games, turns it on late after the entire country thought they would peak at 7-5 and rolls into the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs are already heading to Atlanta, but this is a rivalry game, so don’t doubt Kirby Smart’s team being focused. PICK: Georgia

DP: You know what we haven’t had this season? Chaos. Vols party like it’s Oct. 15, 2022. PICK: Tennessee

ES: The Vols are a different team at home and I don’t think this will be a 5-score blowout like what the Dawgs did to Ole Miss. But I’ve watched enough Tennessee to know these Vols can’t keep it within 10. There’s just not enough left on a battered defense. Georgia by 3 touchdowns. PICK: Georgia

UCLA at USC (-6.5)

SD: It’s tough to pick UCLA in this spot given the rumors surrounding Chip Kelly’s future. It’s also senior night for USC — and a chance for the Trojans to make a statement in their last regular season game of the year. PICK: USC

PH: I’m not sure how to pick this game in what could be the final straw for Chip Kelly’s tenure at UCLA. Rivalry games produce wild results, but I’ll go with the Trojans here simply because I don’t believe the noise surrounding the Bruins helps them rally. PICK: USC

DP: UCLA is trending in the wrong direction. Rumors of major discord in the locker room have me thinking USC can make this ugly. The Bruins don’t have a good offense, and Caleb Williams could very well be playing his last game for USC in this one. (He hasn’t revealed anything publicly yet.) I’ll take USC to generate some positive momentum and close on a strong note. PICK: USC

ES: UCLA is in disarray and USC at the very least has kept games close. I think the Trojans can win by a touchdown here. PICK: USC

Wake Forest at No. 19 Notre Dame (-24.5)

SD: Notre Dame is coming off of a bye and I’m not sure Wake Forest has much left to fight for. It will surely be an emotional game with Sam Hartman going through Senior Night festivities with his old program in town. It’s a massive number, but I’m going to lay it. PICK: Notre Dame

PH: I’m not sure Sam Hartman is looking for a massive statement against his former program, but it’s bound to be an emotional game. Ultimately, Wake Forest ranks 113th in the country for scoring offense, so ignore the big number and go Irish. PICK: Notre Dame

DP: The Sam Hartman bowl. I don’t know if I even trust Notre Dame to clear 25 points. The Irish have done so twice since Sept. 16 — against USC when the Trojans turned it over five times and Notre Dame gained 251 total yards, and against a horrendous Pitt team. Wake has six losses, but only one has been by more than 20 points. PICK: Wake Forest

ES: Notre Dame will win this convincingly, but that spread is… a lot. I still think I’ll roll with Notre Dame to cover. PICK: Notre Dame

No. 21 Kansas State (-8) at No. 25 Kansas

SD: Chris Klieman is 4-0 against the spread in this rivalry as Kansas State’s head coach. KU’s defense is awful and the Jayhawks don’t have much of a homefield advantage. I think there’s some blowout potential here for the Wildcats. PICK: Kansas State

PH: If you look beyond Kansas’ win against Oklahoma, none of the other wins for the Jayhawks scream quality win to me. Sure, rivalry game on the road and all that, but Kansas State looks better in this one. A lot better. PICK: Kansas State  

DP: Give me the Fighting Bill Snyders. PICK: Kansas State

ES: It sounds like Jason Bean is back to practicing after suffering an injury against Texas Tech. Will Howard is playing great football, but I always love the home team in this scenario. Give me Kansas. PICK: Kansas

No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State (-2.5)

SD: Both of these offenses have pretty big advantages in the running game, but the Beavers’ edge is especially worrisome for Washington (99th percentile in rushing offense success rate vs. 2nd percentile rushing defense success rate). Despite being an undefeated underdog in mid-November, I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom of the market yet for Washington. PICK: Oregon State

PH: Oregon State – even if unlikely – has a shot to roll down the stretch toward the CFP, even with 2 losses. The Beavers have also been better at home. So, is the pick OSU in this? “Not so fast, my friend,” as Lee Corso would say! If Michael Penix wants the Heisman, he can get back to the top of the list with another win here. PICK: Washington

DP: This could potentially be a venomous environment inside Reser Stadium. Biggest game for Oregon State in a decade. The Beavs need this to stay in the Pac-12 title race. College GameDay won’t be in town and Oregon State fans are in their feelings about that (rightfully so). Add in the recent legal fight between the Pac-2 and the departing 10 and this game pretty quickly becomes a battle for respect. Oregon State makes a statement about its program. Washington has been flirting with its first loss for weeks. Damien Martinez and DJ Uiagalelei are the perfect tandem to punish a leaky defense. PICK: Oregon State

ES: This is when I think Washington will finally fall. The Beavers have a strong defense and will have the home crowd on their side. This could be a statement game for the Huskies if they pull it off, but I’ll roll with the Beavers. PICK: Oregon State

Florida at No. 9 Missouri (-11.5)

SD: Here’s something worth noting: Florida’s defense this season is in the 73rd percentile in success rate, but in just the 11th percentile in EPA. That sort of discrepancy suggests Florida’s defense gives up an astronomical number of explosive plays — which is true. UF has given up 21 plays of 40+ yards this season, which is by far the most in the SEC. Only Vanderbilt (17) is even close to Florida in this regard. Missouri’s offense is more than capable of taking advantage of Florida’s porous defense, especially at home. PICK: Missouri

PH: I think Mizzou is for real as a top-10 team, and the Tigers will probably go down as the SEC team to give Georgia its best shot in back-to-back seasons. I know that doesn’t have anything to do with Florida, but I really do not believe in anything Billy Napier is doing. PICK: Missouri

DP: Missouri wins. Florida is faced with the threat of its first season without a bowl game since 2017. PICK: Missouri  

ES: Florida is fighting for something, a chance at a bowl bid. That just makes me think this will be a tougher battle than the Tigers are expecting. I think Mizzou still grabs the win but give me Florida to cover. PICK: Florida

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-4.5)

SD: Wisconsin’s offense has been dreadful this season, mostly because it doesn’t run the ball enough. The Badgers are in the 92nd percentile nationally in rushing offense success rate. That number drops to the 23rd percentile when they throw the ball. Luckily for the Badgers, Nebraska’s offense is among the least efficient in the Power 5. PICK: Wisconsin

PH: This game ultimately hinges on Braelon Allen being ready for Wisconsin, and the fact Nebraska doesn’t have a functioning QB that doesn’t turn the ball over. Sure, the Badgers probably win outright at home, but I don’t see either team pulling away in this one. Nebraska’s defense keeps the team in this one all game long. PICK: Nebraska

DP: This is going to be the Disgustingtons Bowl with bowl eligibility on the line for whoever can manage to win. Wisconsin cannot move the football. Nebraska cannot hold onto the football. The Huskers have 27 turnovers! Twenty-seven!! Four more than any other team in the FBS. You just cannot trust that. PICK: Wisconsin

ES: The winner gets bowl eligibility, and although both are playing truly disgusting football right now, I’ll roll with the home team to get the win at Camp Randall. PICK: Wisconsin