Plenty to play for in Charlotte

Clemson and North Carolina cannot play their way into the College Football Playoff with a win in Saturday night’s ACC Championship game in Charlotte.

North Carolina’s stunning 2-loss homestand to close the regular season, coupled with Clemson’s rivalry game loss to South Carolina, extinguished any lingering hope.

What Clemson and North Carolina can do, of course, is win the ACC championship.

For Clemson, it would be Dabo Swinney’s 8th ACC title in 15 seasons, and the program’s 21st. Clemson fans may be having a minor meltdown over the Tigers’ third consecutive season with at least 2 losses, but if Swinney returns the program to the pinnacle of the ACC after last year’s brief hiatus, it’s hard to advance anything but a speculative argument that Clemson is a program in decline.

For North Carolina, it would be the program’s first ACC championship since Dick Crum’s 1980 team, and the 6th overall ACC title. For Mack Brown, winning North Carolina’s first ACC crown in over 4 decades would arguably be the second finest moment of his Hall of Fame coaching career, behind only the national championship he captured at Texas.

Add to these stakes a nationally televised football game (8:15 PM ET, ABC) and an Orange Bowl bid to the winner, and you have yourself an intriguing conference title game.

Who has the edge? We took a first look last week, focusing on whether North Carolina can slow the Clemson run game. 

This week, we evaluate two other key questions that will decide who leaves Charlotte as the ACC Champion.

Will Drake Maye find his magic again?

For the first time in years, the Clemson defense looks human.

Spencer Rattler was the latest quarterback to prove that, torching the Clemson secondary for 360 yards and 2 touchdowns in South Carolina’s 31-30 win in Death Valley. The Road respects Rattler, but he’s not even a top 5 quarterback in the SEC, let alone a player the caliber of Drake Maye. At least that’s what I would have told you a little over 2 weeks ago, when Rattler managed only 11 first downs against a woeful Florida defense and Maye was piling up video game numbers, throwing for at least 293 yards passing in 5 of his first 6 ACC contests and breaking the 300-yard mark in 7 of his first 10 games as a college starter.

What’s happened the past 2 weeks?

Maye threw for just 202 yards, with 0 touchdowns, in Carolina’s stunning home loss to Georgia Tech, and then threw for 233 yards, on only 4.8 yards per attempt, in the Tar Heels’ 30-27 double overtime loss to NC State.

Maye, whose big brother Luke helped the Tar Heels win the program’s 6th national basketball championship in 2017, was a Heisman candidate with a legitimate chance to win 2 weeks ago. Now, after 2 shocking home losses, he may not be invited to New York City for the ceremony. Even after Maye’s two-week slump, he still grades out as the nation’s 2nd best- and best Power 5- quarterback, per Pro Football Focus, with a 91.6 season grade. Maye’s 35 passing touchdowns trail only CJ Stroud of Ohio State among Power 5 throwers as well.

But he’s lost something the past 2 weeks. What is it?

The best explanation is defenses have simply stopped paying attention to North Carolina’s run game.

Georgia Tech had more pressures (11) than NC State (8) against Maye. But both teams elected to drop 7 or 8 into coverage on virtually every snap, trusting their defensive line to hold the edge and contain against North Carolina’s run game. The Tar Heels ran for over 100 yards in each game, but at just 3.8 yards per rush, with 45 of those yards coming from Maye, Carolina isn’t scaring anyone in the run game.

The impact has been to take 1-on-1 targets away from Maye, namely, Josh Downs. Maye targeted Downs 14 times against NC State, but had single coverage on only 7 of those throws, and connected on 6 of the throws for a paltry 51 yards. Maye still made big plays, like this game-tying touchdown pass, which came after a truly brilliant Maye TD pass was dropped.

He also remains perhaps Carolina’s best red-zone running threat:

But Clemson, which stubbornly refused to drop 7 or 8 into coverage against South Carolina despite bottling up an anemic Gamecocks run game, will surely not make the same mistake against Maye. Right?

Maye has torched good defenses this season, namely, Notre Dame (301 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Miami (309 yards, 2 touchdowns). The magic is there. But it’s time for the freshman to bounce back to his October and early November form if the Tar Heels want to win the ACC Championship.

Dabo and DJ to the bitter end

Clemson is going either going to win the ACC championship and play in the Orange Bowl –or fail to do so — with DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback. That much was made clear by Dabo Swinney Sunday on his media teleconference previewing the ACC Championship game.

Uiagalelei, who went 8-of-29 for 99 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in the 31-30 loss to the rival Gamecocks, will not sit in favor of Cade Klubnik, the latest 5-star freshman at Clemson and the apple of the fan base eye.

“DJ had some plays that he’d like to have back, but he was a long way away from being the reason we lost the game, that’s for sure,” Swinney told reporters on the teleconference. “He doesn’t return kicks and play safety and catch the ball. He can only control his part, but all of those things affect your psyche and the rhythm of the game.”

Swinney’s reference to kick returns was a reference to 1 of Clemson’s 3 turnovers Saturday, specifically, a lost fumble on a punt return with 2 minutes left that helped seal the win for South Carolina by giving the Gamecocks the ball instead of allowing Clemson to set up shop at midfield needing only a field goal to win. The Tigers also dropped 3 passes against the Gamecocks, which is why Swinney mentioned his receivers.

But 3 drops weren’t even a season-high for Clemson, and that, and the passing chart below, likely means there is one reality: Klubnik, while talented, isn’t ready. If he was, he’d be playing already.

Remember, when Klubnik has played, he’s mostly handed off, as he did in guiding Clemson to its comeback win over a then-unbeaten Syracuse team in October. Though a small sample size, the numbers bear this out: Klubnik is 11-22, with just 98 yards passing, and he’s yet to complete a throw of over 20 yards (0-4).

Those numbers aren’t even favorable to say, Uiagalelei backing up Trevor Lawrence. Remember, it was Uiagalelei who had to handle things for Clemson with Lawrence hurt in 2020, and DJ did just that, completing 78-of-117 passes for 914 yards, 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Uiagalelei’s freshman experience, coupled with Deshaun Watson’s, demonstrate Swinney will play a young quarterback if he has to and if he believes the young man is ready. Klubnik must not be, because Uiagalelei hasn’t been right for a month, yet Clemson is going to win, or lose, the ACC Championship with him under center Saturday night.

The Will-d Card: Will Shipley’s night to shine?

Even without much of a passing game, Will Shipley’s star turn this November is difficult to ignore. The sophomore surpassed 1,000 yards rushing in Saturday’s loss to South Carolina, running through a stacked box and running through a cheating safety on his lone touchdown run.

Shipley has also hurdled another human being this month, for good measure.

As The Road wrote last week, if Clemson can run effectively, it’s easy to envision a world where the Tigers run 50 times Saturday and simply bleed the game to death. Why not? It keeps the ball away from Drake Maye and simplifies the role of Uiagalelei, who can’t possibly be confident given his play over the last month. Shipley, who also has 30 receptions in the passing game and is an electric return man, will be the best non-Drake Maye player on the field offensively Saturday night. He also may hold the key to Clemson’s return to the ACC throne.

Rivalry Week rundown

No. 16 Florida State 45, Florida 38: Jordan Travis shined in this thriller, the highest-scoring game in the history of the Florida State-Florida rivalry. As good as Drake Maye, Hendon Hooker and Caleb Williams have been this year, has there been a single play by any of them as good as the one Travis made in FSU’s win Friday?

Travis accounted for 353 yards passing and rushing, along with 3 touchdowns, in Florida State’s win, which ended a 3-game losing streak to the hated Gators in the process. Florida State now waits to see if they sneak into the New Year’s 6, or have to settle for the Cheez-It Bowl, after a 9-win season, the program’s first winning campaign since the Jimbo Fisher era.

Credit Mike Norvell, who, despite plenty of outside noise that he wasn’t up for the job, has put out the Fisher/Willie Taggart dumpster fire and has FSU trending back toward national prominence again. And credit Travis, who is perhaps the ACC’s most valuable football player in 2022.

No. 1 Georgia 37, Georgia Tech 14: There’s an apocryphal story that in 1976, Lee Corso, years before his College GameDay fame and then a struggling head coach at Indiana, took a team photo early in a game against No. 1 Ohio State after the Hoosiers took a 7-6 lead in the first quarter. The photo, which reads Indiana 7, Ohio State 6, does exist, but it wasn’t Corso’s idea.

In any event, Georgia Tech’s opening drive, a 75-yard march to the Hedges in Athens that put Georgia Tech up 7-0 on Georgia on Saturday afternoon, reminded me of that story. The truth is, Georgia Tech should have taken a team photo reading Georgia Tech 7, Georgia 0, after Taisun Phommachanh’s touchdown. Brent Key may not get the Georgia Tech job, but at least he’d have that memory.

Instead, he has to spend the offseason wondering why Brock Bowers is allowed to pick up the ball off the ground and have it called a touchdown catch.

Georgia Tech looked vastly improved under Key, and while he may not get the job, he showed that with a quality CEO, the Yellow Jackets can win football games. They’ll just win more as Zach Pyron and Zach Gibson mature at quarterback.

Duke 34, Wake Forest 31: In a just universe, Mike Elko would win national coach of the year.

He won’t, but he’s hands down the ACC Coach of the Year, flipping the script on a Duke team that had won just 5 games the past 2 seasons and winning 8 in his first year in Durham.

Saturday’s win, a thrilling win at Wallace Wade Stadium over Wake Forest that featured yet another sensational game from the best quarterback you’ve never cared to pay attention to — Riley Leonard — may have been Elko and his staff’s finest hour. The back shoulder toss Leonard made to Sahmir Hagans to win the game? It was pure art.

Elko and the Blue Devils aren’t just bowling — they’ll be in a quality bowl, and have a great chance to win it — next month.

Kentucky 26, No. 25 Louisville 13: What do we make of Scott Satterfield?

Is 7-5 good enough to save his job? Certainly, Louisville played a tough schedule and did a terrific job down the stretch getting bowl-eligible after a borderline disastrous 2-3 start that included a loss to lowly Boston College. But the Cardinals’ loss to Kentucky– again– despite the fact that Kentucky was 6-5 and reeling, one of college football’s most disappointing outfits in 2022. Yes, the Cardinals were without Malik Cunningham– at least for the most part– as the senior played hurt, and sparingly, in the defeat. The real problem, though, was Louisville’s splendid defense didn’t play their best game, getting bullied by Kentucky on the line of scrimmage to the tune of 170 combined rushing yards from Chris Rodriguez Jr. and JuTahn McClain.

Satterfield seems likely to ride the late season momentum into a 5th season in Louisville, but make no mistake — there will be noise in the system — and there should be.

Pitt 42, Miami 16: The Panthers won 8 games for the 5th time in Pat Narduzzi’s 8 seasons in Pittsburgh, demolishing a hapless Hurricanes team 42-16. Israel Abanikanda won the ACC rushing title all but officially as well, getting to 1,431 rushing yards on the season with 111 yards on 15 carries and 2 touchdowns. Abanikanda’s 20 rushing touchdowns lead the country.

As for Miami, the Canes failed to advance to a bowl in Year 1 under Mario Cristobal, and managed to lose 4 home games to the likes of Duke, Middle Tennessee, Florida State and Pitt by the combined score of 177-60. Manny Diaz never lost games that bad, but hey, at least Cristobal is recruiting at a high level?

Syracuse 32, Boston College 23: The Orange rallied from a 10-0 deficit to hold off Boston College 32-23 and avoid a 6th consecutive loss after starting the year a torrid 6-0. The win assures Dino Babers of his first winning season since 2018, regardless of what the Orange do in their bowl game later this month. If All-American running back Sean Tucker opts out of the bowl game, he went out in style, rushing for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns in Syracuse’s win on Saturday.

Bowden Awards

Every week, The Road pays homage to the ACC’s best ever — Bobby Bowden — by honoring the ACC’s best over the weekend

Charlie Ward Award (Best Offensive Player): Jordan Travis, QB (Florida State)

Travis edges out Riley Leonard for the award after channeling his inner Charlie Ward in the Seminoles’ 45-38 win over the Gators. I mean seriously, how can you not love this guy?

Travis finishes the regular season with 2,796 yards passing and 22 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions, and he added 367 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. His 29 overall touchdowns produced trails just Drake Maye and Sam Hartman for the ACC lead.

Prior Winners: Garrett Shrader, QB, Syracuse (Week 1 and Week 2); Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State (Week 3); DJ Uiagalelei, QB, Clemson (Week 4 and Week 5); Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt (Week 6); Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (Week 7 and 9); Will Shipley, RB, Clemson (Week 8); Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (Week 10); Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State (Week 11); Sam Hartman, QB Wake Forest (Week 12).

Mickey Andrews Award (Defensive Player of the Week): Erick Hallett II, DB (Pittsburgh)

Hallett had 7 tackles and recovered 2 fumbles in Pitt’s dominant win at Miami. He also allowed just 2 completions in 7 1-on-1 coverage situations, per Stats Solutions. Hallett and the Panthers forced 3 Hurricanes turnovers and were dominant on third down, limiting Miami to just 3 conversions in 12 attempts. Hallett finished the regular season with 3 fumble recoveries, a forced fumble, and 3 interceptions.

Prior Winners: Shyheim Battle, DB, NC State (Week 1, Week 4), Brandon Johnson, DB, Duke (Week 2); Aydan White, DB, NC State (Week 3); Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson (Week 5); DeAndre Boykins, DB, North Carolina (Week 6); Akheem Mesidor, DL, Miami (Week 7); Ja’Had Carter, S, Syracuse, (Week 8); Momo Sanogo, LB, Louisville (Week 9); Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame (Week 10 and Week 12); Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami (Week 11).

Sebastian Janikowski Award (Special Teams Player of the Week): Christopher Dunn, Kicker (NC State)

Dunn, a Lou Groza award finalist, connected on 3-of-4 field goal attempts, including a game-winner in double overtime, to upset No. 17 North Carolina. Dunn did, shockingly, miss his first field goal of the season, but he finishes the regular season an incredible 24-25 on field goal attempts and perfect on extra points. In fact, the super senior is an absurd 200-200 on extra points in his career, nailing PAT number 200 in the 4th quarter Friday. It’s the game-winner against his archrival though, along with becoming the ACC’s all-time scoring leader, that Dunn will remember forever.

Prior Winners: Matthew Dennis, Kicker (K), Wake Forest (Week 1), PJ O’Brien, DB, Pitt (Week 2); Brendan Farrell, K, Virginia (Week 3), Andre Szmyt, K, Syracuse (Week 4); Gavin Stewart, K, Georgia Tech (Week 5); Sahmir Hagans, Returner, Duke (Week 6); Will Shipley, Clemson (Week 7); Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame (Week 8); Andres Borregalles, K, Miami (Week 9); Jordan Botelho, DB/Punt Team, Notre Dame (Week 10); Noah Burnette, K, North Carolina (Week 11); Jawhar Jordan, RB/Returner, Louisville (Week 12).