Knowledge is power. Or so they say.

That might be the case in most walks of life. But when it comes to the NBA Draft, the more teams know about a player, the less powerful he usually becomes.

It’s the reason the top half of most mock drafts are dominated by a collection of Euros and teenagers with 1 or fewer seasons of college experience.

They have plenty of “upside” potential. And the scouts haven’t seen enough of them yet to identify any perceived flaws in their game.

So while it’s customary for fans and the media to celebrate when players with 1st-round projections eschew the draft and return to their college teams for a 2nd, 3rd or even 4th season, it isn’t always in their best interest to do so.

There’s a reason draft prospects are often compared to the stock market.

While values often rise, they’re just as likely to drop. And if you gamble by holding onto a commodity too long, you’re liable to get burned.

Exhibit A is Duke’s Kyle Filipowski.

Had Fillipowski decided to join Blue Devils’ teammates Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead in the 2023 draft following his ACC Freshman of the Year performance, there’s a good chance he would have been a lottery pick.

Even though FanDuel Sportsbook still gives him odds at being taken among the top 10 picks of this week’s draft, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday in Brooklyn, he’s a longshot at +3500. He’s more likely to go somewhere in the mid-20s. At least one pre-draft prediction has him falling as far as No. 30 to the newly crowned champion Boston Celtics.

Why has his stock dropped?

It’s not because of anything he’s done.

In fact, the 7-foot forward is actually better physically now than he was a year ago thanks to double hip surgery that has helped improve his strength and mobility.

His sophomore averages of 16.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.5 blocks per game are about the same or slightly better than the previous season. And his overall shooting percentage of .505 and 3-point accuracy of .348 are significantly higher.

There are some legitimate question marks surrounding his game. He’s not overly athletic or physical, despite possessing a solid 248-pound build. His perimeter shooting touch is inconsistent and he’s not a great defender, especially since he’s not a natural rim protector.

Filipowski has also shown a tendency to sulk when things don’t go his way, causing him to go into periodic funks.

None of that should come as a surprise. All of that was already on his scouting report.

He just stuck around long enough for NBA executives to start picking over his profile with a fine-tooth comb and obsessing over his flaws while they fall in love with other, younger prospects they’ve had less time to scrutinize.

Filipowski’s stock isn’t falling as much as others are rising.

That’s illustrated by the fact that his Duke teammate Jared McCain and Pitt’s Bub Carrington – both freshmen – are projected to be drafted before him. And there’s a realistic chance that Miami’s Kyshawn George, a project who started only 16 games and averaged less than 8 points in his only college season, could go higher as well.

That uncertainty is a reason Filipowski would be wise to turn down the NBA’s invitation to be in Brooklyn to hear his name called in person.

As thrilling as that experience has the potential to be, it could just as easily turn into a nightmare if things don’t go according to plan.

Who can forget the agony on the faces of Kentucky quarterback Will Levis and his family as teams continued to pass on him and he plummeted down the board at the 2023 NFL Draft?

It’s bad enough going through that experience in the privacy of your own home. But doing it in the green room with ESPN’s cameras staring you down and recording your every expression is even worse.

Levis was projected as a top-5 pick but ended up falling completely out of the 1st round. That’s unlikely to happen to Filipowski because ironically, the same liability that’s likely to drop him out of the lottery will suddenly become an asset once teams in the bottom half of the 1st round begin making their picks.

He’s a known quantity.

According to his profile on, Filipowski is still considered one of the “safest” picks in the 2024 draft class. That would make him attractive to a contending team looking to improve its depth or fill a specific need.

Getting taken later than sooner would obviously be a disappointment and would cost him money on his rookie contract, but it wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing in the world for the former Duke star.

He’ll come into the league with considerably less pressure than someone being counted on to be the immediate face of a franchise struggling at or near the bottom of the standings. And if he adjusts quickly and plays well, he’ll be hailed as one of the biggest steals of the draft.

Which is a lot better than the alternative.