ESPN’s FPI has a prediction for Duke’s Birmingham Bowl matchup against Troy.

Both programs will play this game after losing their head coach this offseason. Mike Elko left Duke for the Texas A&M job while Troy lost former coach Jon Sumrall to Tulane. The Blue Devils will also be playing without starting quarterback Riley Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame.

FPI is giving Duke an edge in this game. The model gives the Blue Devils a 57.2% chance to win.

Trooper Taylor is slated to serve as Duke’s interim head coach for this game against the Trojans. The Blue Devils hired Manny Diaz to replace Elko on a full-time basis earlier this month. Diaz has been working to finalize his staff and build out Duke’s roster for 2024.

Duke will have a decision to make at quarterback for this contest. Grayson Loftis and Henry Belin IV both made starts in 2023 as Leonard dealt with injuries for much of the season.

Duke is 2-0 all-time against Troy. The programs last met during the 2014 season.

Kickoff of the Birmingham Bowl is set for 12 p.m. ET on Dec. 23.