Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball preview series continues today with Duke. We’ll preview every ACC Coastal team this week.

DURHAM, NC — It can be done. You can win football games at Duke.

David Cutcliffe proved that by leading the Blue Devils to 6 bowls in a 7-year stretch from 2012-18, including a 10-win season and Coastal Division championship in 2013. But as the past 3 seasons have also proven, maintaining a high level of success is still a challenge and the margin for error remains as slim as ever.

Last year’s team finished 3-9, didn’t win an ACC game and finished dead last in the conference in scoring offense and scoring defense.

Duke may not have been the worst team in college football, as it was when Cutcliffe took over in 2008, but it was as bad as they come in what was considered a down year for the ACC.

That’s the challenge faced by Cutcliffe’s successor, former Texas A&M, Notre Dame and Wake Forest defensive coordinator Mike Elko.

There are so many areas to fix, including some that can only be addressed through recruiting, that Elko has spent more time talking about culture than wins during the months leading up to his first game with the Blue Devils.

“We know the stats and we know the results,” he said at the ACC’s preseason kickoff event in Charlotte in July. “I think we just kind of came in and started to establish our culture.”

From the sound of things, he’s already begun to make inroads in laying that foundation.

“They’ve just done an amazing job buying into what we’re trying to do,” Elko said. “We’ve asked them to do a lot of different things. Not necessarily better, worse. just different. I think they’ve kind of jumped at the opportunity. They have just kind of bought into the fact that we’re going to try to get this program as successful as we can be, as quick as we can be.”

How quickly can it happen?

It took Cutcliffe 6 years to record his first winning season with the Blue Devils, though he led them to a bowl in Year 5. This rebuild isn’t as extensive considering the improvements that have been made in facilities and increases in the program’s budget.

It’s not going to happen overnight. But it can happen.

Here’s how it starts.

Turning over a new leaf

The Blue Devils have a long laundry list of issues that need to be addressed in their effort to get headed back in the right direction. A good place to start would be turnovers.

They plagued Duke over the past 3 seasons, a stretch that saw the team post a combined minus-39 turnover margin while posting a 10-25 record overall and 4-22 in the ACC.

Not only are the Blue Devils giving the ball up too much – 28 times in 2019, 39 in 2020 and 23 last year – they’ve also had trouble taking it away.

Figuring out a way of reversing both those trends has been what Elko described as “an enormous point of emphasis” during the first few months of his tenure.

“I think we’ve done a lot to try to get our kids educated on not only how important it is, but also how they happen and how we can create them,” Elko said. “Turnovers, if you look year in and year out, are the single biggest factor in wins and losses.

“It’s just establishing a mentality of how important it is, how valuable those things are to not only not have them, but also to create them with your defense and to put yourself in more positions to have a positive turnover margin and be successful.”

So how do you create more turnovers?

According to junior defensive tackle DeWayne Carter, it’s all about effort. And he ought to know. Despite Duke’s dismal recent record with turnovers, he still managed to lead the ACC last season with 4 forced fumbles.

“Good things happen when you swarm to the ball,” he said. “One thing we do specifically is when we finish our warm-up drills, conditioning drills, whatever tests, if you don’t finish at least 2 yards behind the line, you’re going back and doing it again. That’s the standard we want to create. When you talk about forced fumbles and turnovers and things of that nature, it comes from extra effort on the field.”

Search for skill (positions)

Elko comes to Duke with a solid background in defense, which will certainly help considering that the Blue Devils ranked 127th out of 130 FBS teams by allowing an average of 39.8 points per game – a number that ballooned to nearly 50 per game against ACC competition.

But stopping the other team is only half his worry. Duke also ranked last in the ACC in scoring offense at just under 23 points per game. And unlike the defense he inherited, which at least has a few viable pieces around which to build – led by defensive tackle Carter and linebacker Shaka Heyward – the offense is a virtual start over from scratch proposition.

The Blue Devils must find replacements for all their top skill position players from a year ago. Quarterback Gunnar Holmberg is now at Florida International, 1,200-yard rusher Mataeo Durant is now in the NFL and top receiver Jake Bobo transferred to UCLA.

Although Elko has yet to make an announcement, the quarterback situation seems to be set with sophomore Riley Leonard winning the competition with classmate Jordan Moore, who could potentially be moved to wide receiver as a way of getting his speed and athleticism onto the field.

Redshirt junior Jordan Waters is the most experienced ball carrier with just 305 yards to his credit in 25 career games. Fellow junior Jaylen Coleman, sophomore Jaquez Moore and true freshman Terry Moore are also in the mix for carries in what is likely to be a running back by committee.

Among the receivers, senior Jalon Calhoun returns after recording 39 catches and a pair of touchdowns in 2021. But at just 8.9 yards a reception, Duke still needs a deep threat to emerge.

If there’s one ray of sunshine on offense, it’s that starting tackles Graham Barton and John Gelotte return as part of a line that was bolstered by some nice transfer portal pickups.

Feeding the Devils

When Elko talks about changing the culture of his program — a goal echoed by fellow Coastal Division newcomers Mario Cristobal of Miami, Virginia’s Tony Elliott and Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry — he’s not just referring to things such as practice habits, weight room workouts and facilities improvements. He’s also changed the way his players eat.

“The food is amazing now,” said 6-3, 298-pound offensive guard Jacob Monk. “We’ve got a lot more options. It used to be just dinner stuff and now we have breakfast and lunch. Guys are gaining weight and getting stronger.”

The biggest change has been the shift of the team’s training table from the evening meal to earlier in the day, so players can eat breakfast or lunch. Or in the case of some of the bigger Blue Devils, both.

Not only is there more of a selection, but according to 6-3, 298-pound defensive tackle Carter, the quality of the food has also improved.

“Honestly, the training table might be the best meal on campus now,” Carter said. “We tell them what we like. We get to cook a little there. It’s kind of interactive. My favorite training table meal is the chicken tenders. I don’t know what they do, but they are the best thing since sliced bread.”

While improving the menu might seem relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of trying to build a winning football program, Elko said it’s the little things that sometimes make the biggest difference when it comes to change.

“We told the guys that we’re going to ask a lot more of you, but we’re also going to try to provide you a lot more,” Elko said. “We talk about trying to build the best football program we can at the best academic school in the country, and that’s what we’re hoping to get done.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Temple (W)

The Owls averaged 8.6 wins per season for the 5 years between 2015-19 but have fallen upon hard times since. They’ve won just 4 times over the past 2 years, leading to the dismissal of coach Rod Carey. Like Duke, Temple will also be playing its first game under a new coach, in this case, Stan Drayton. Being at home will make the difference for the Blue Devils, who get to celebrate a winning debut for Mike Elko.

Week 2: at Northwestern (L)

The Wildcats have followed an interesting pattern over the past 4 seasons. In the even-numbered years (2018-20), they’ve won enough games to qualify for bowl eligibility. Heck, in 2020, they reached the Big Ten Championship Game. In the odd-numbered years (2019-21), they’ve gone 3-9. Duke won last year’s matchup in Durham. That’s the good news. The bad news for the Blue Devils is that this is an even-numbered year.

Week 3: vs NC A&T (W)

The Aggies from nearby Greensboro have made a habit out of upsetting FBS teams from North Carolina, with recent wins at East Carolina and Charlotte. But the Blue Devils are a step up from those teams. They beat A&T handily a year ago and this year’s rematch should be more of the same.

Week 4: at Kansas (L)

As was the case with Northwestern, the Blue Devils beat the Jayhawks in 2021. But this year’s game is in Lawrence and Holmberg, who ran for 4 touchdowns and threw for 328 yards and another score, is now at FIU. Advantage Kansas.

Week 5: vs. Virginia (L)

One of just 2 games on Duke’s conference schedule that could be considered a toss-up. It’s a matchup between the worst defenses in the ACC last season. Even though both teams figure to be better after coaching changes, count on a lot of points being scored. In the end, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Devils having enough firepower to outscore an offense led by Brennan Armstrong and his high-flying collection of big-play receivers.

Week 6: at Georgia Tech (L)

Here’s the other toss-up. It’s a tough one to call because the Yellow Jackets are liable to be beat up physically and mentally after playing 4 of their first 5 games against Clemson, Ole Miss, UCF and Pittsburgh, with the last two on the road before taking on the Blue Devils. But Tech has won the past 2 meetings and should be playing with a greater sense of urgency with coach Geoff Collins’ job reported to be on the line.

Week 7: at North Carolina (L)

The Victory Bell stays in Chapel Hill. And it won’t be close.

Week 8: at Miami (L)

The Hurricanes have won the past 2 meetings by a combined score of 95-10 and have their eyes set squarely on a Coastal Division championship. The only thing that will keep this year’s score from getting out of hand is if Miami decides to just show up and go through the motions against the overmatched Blue Devils. Even if it does, it won’t affect the outcome.

Week 9: Open

Week 10: at Boston College (L)

For some reason, the ACC Network chose this matchup to be televised as part of its Friday Night package. Must-see TV, it is not.

Week 11: vs. Virginia Tech (L)

Like Elko, new Hokies coach Brent Pry is also in the first season of a rebuild. The difference is that unlike Elko, who has to blow his program up to start over again, Pry has much more veteran talent to rely on, especially on defense.

Week 12: at Pittsburgh (L)

The Panthers get a scheduling break by drawing lowly Duke and its first-year coaching staff the week before taking on Miami for the Coastal Division title. Their game plan will be simple: Take care of business against the Blue Devils as quickly as possible and get all the starters out of the game in one piece.

Week 13: vs. Wake Forest (L)

A study in contrast to end the season. While the programs are very similar because of the size of their schools, stringent academic requirements and the numerous other challenges they face in competing with their larger ACC rivals, they are diametrically opposite when it comes to their performance on the field. While Duke will be putting the finishing touches on its 4th straight losing season and 2nd straight winless ACC campaign, Wake will be headed to its 7th straight bowl.

2022 projection: 2-10 (0-8), 7th in ACC Coastal

#GoDuke

Give some credit to whoever made Duke’s schedule. They clearly knew what they were doing.

The Blue Devils open the season with nonconference games against the worst teams in the AAC, the Big Ten and the Big 12 from last season and an HBCU program playing at the FCS level. It’s the kind of slate that lends itself to getting a new coaching staff off to a fast start and building some confidence within their new program.

The problem from that point on is that the Blue Devils don’t have any control over who they get to play once the ACC schedule kicks off.

There are at least a couple of winnable league games and fortunately for Elko and his team, they come early enough to still be riding that initial wave of optimism. They might even be able to pull off an upset or two later on.

Still, the success of the 2021 season for Duke won’t be measured solely on wins and losses.

The climb back up from the bottom takes time. And the journey has just begun.