Florida State has a well-earned open date in Week 2 after upsetting LSU in New Orleans back in Week 1.

The victory over the Tigers means FSU is 2-0 for the first time since 2016. It also sets up the Noles with plenty of momentum as it begins conference play.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, FSU’s season-outlook has improved significantly since picking up that win over LSU.

At the start of the year, FPI was projecting Florida State to win 6.8 games. Now, that number has grown all the way to 7.6 as Week 2 begins. Florida State’s last 8+ win season came in 2016. FSU also now has a 93.8% chance of reaching a bowl game, per FPI.

Here’s FPI’s game-by-game projections for FSU over its final 10 games, along with the percentage change since the preseason.

  • Sept. 16: at Louisville — 62.8% (up 15.2%)
  • Sept. 24: vs. Boston College — 82% (up 3%)
  • Oct. 1: vs. Wake Forest — 69.9% (up 12.8%)
  • Oct. 8: at NC State — 42.9% (up 4.9%)
  • Oct. 15: vs. Clemson — 17.7% (down 2.2%)
  • Oct. 29: vs. Georgia Tech — 83.6% (up 1.5%)
  • Nov. 5: at Miami — 23% (down 2.5%)
  • Nov. 12: at Syracuse — 45.1% (down 14.9%)
  • Nov. 19: vs. Louisiana — 84.7% (up 2.3%)
  • Nov. 26: vs. Florida — 51% (down 4.7%)

Florida State’s win probability went up in 6 of its 10 remaining games. It did go down in 4 of those games — Clemson, Miami, Syracuse and Florida.

However, FSU is now a favorite over Wake Forest and Louisville after being preseason underdogs, per FPI.

Florida State and Louisville kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 16.