Florida State has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 college football season, according to one analyst.

Although FSU began the year as a consensus top 5 team, the Noles have out-performed most preseason win projections this season. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Noles were projected to win 8.9 regular season games this season.

The updated projection is now at 11.8 wins as Florida State prepares for its final two regular season games. The gap between win expectations between now and the preseason is 2.9 wins, which is the fourth-biggest increase of any team in the country per Connelly’s numbers.

Here’s his analysis on FSU being amongst college football’s biggest surprises entering Week 12:

The Noles have underachieved against projections the past couple of weeks, even with the return of injured star receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. But it would take a pretty massive upset to take them out of the CFP running.

Amongst FBS teams, only Arizona, Kansas and Mizzou have out-performed their preseason win expectations by more than the Noles in 2023.

FSU is in the midst of its best season since 2014. The Noles are 8-0 on the season in ACC play and will be favored to win the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 2 in Charlotte.

FSU will try to move to 11-0 this weekend against North Alabama before facing Florida in its regular season finale.