Game-by-game predictions: ESPN's FPI projects Florida State's 2022 season
Florida State is looking for a big season in Year 3 under coach Mike Norvell, but ESPN’s Football Power Index isn’t projecting a significant leap for the Seminoles.
FPI is projecting Florida State to win 6.8 games this season, which would be FSU’s 6th straight season to fall short of at least 8 wins. FPI gives the Noles a 80.2% chance of reaching bowl eligibility and a 5.1% chance of winning the Atlantic.
Here’s FPI’s game-by-game projections, along with the model’s percentage chance of FSU winning each game:
- Aug. 27: vs. Duquesne — 99.5%
- Sept. 4: vs. LSU (in New Orleans) — 29%
- Sept. 16: at Louisville — 47.6%
- Sept. 24: vs. Boston College — 79%
- Oct. 1: vs. Wake Forest — 57.1%
- Oct. 8: at NC State — 38%
- Oct. 15: vs. Clemson — 19.9%
- Oct. 29: vs. Georgia Tech — 82.1%
- Nov. 5: at Miami — 25.5%
- Nov. 12: at Syracuse — 61%
- Nov. 19: vs. Louisiana — 82.4%
- Nov. 26: vs. Florida — 55.7%
That’s a difficult state of games that includes 10 contests vs. Power 5 opposition and 2 games vs. SEC teams. Florida State is favored to win 4 ACC games, per FPI: vs. Boston College, vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse and vs. Georgia Tech.
The toughest part of the schedule is the first 7 games of the season. Florida State is underdogs vs. LSU, Louisville, NC State and Clemson in the first part of the season. FSU is only an underdog to one opponent — Miami — in the month of November.
Florida State is looking for its first bowl-eligible season since 2019.