Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Louisville. We’ll stay with the ACC Atlantic all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every ACC Coastal team.

Louisville is home to the Kentucky Derby, so it’s appropriate that we use a horse racing analogy to summarize the Cardinals’ performance last season.

Coach Scott Satterfield’s 2021 team was like a rabbit that bursts out of the starting gate and sets a blistering early pace, only to fade down the stretch and finish out of the money at the wire.

Louisville was either ahead, tied or within a point of the opposition with 10 minutes or fewer remaining in 4 of its 6 losses. But instead of finishing strong and closing out those games, 3 of which were against Atlantic Division rivals Wake Forest, Clemson and NC State, they spit the bit and were outscored by a combined 65-23 in the fourth quarter.

Those late struggles were the difference between a breakthrough season for Satterfield and a disappointing 6-7 mark. They also turned the temperature on the coach’s saddle up to blast furnace hot.

Satterfield raised hopes and expectations by posting a surprising 8-win season in 2019 after being hired from Appalachian State to clean up the mess left by Bobby Petrino. But the momentum has stagnated following back-to-back losing records in the 2 years since.

If this is a win-or-else season for Satterfield – and with a relatively low buyout in the neighborhood of $5 million there’s a good chance it is – he at least has the horses to make a strong run at surviving.

The stable is led by redshirt senior Malik Cunningham, a thoroughbred of a dual-threat quarterback often overlooked in a competitive Atlantic Division that returns all 7 starters at his position. (Or did, anyway, before Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman was sidelined indefinitely.)

Cunningham rushed for 1,031 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry last season while also completing 62% of his passes for 2,941 yards and 19 touchdowns. He ran for 20 touchdowns, most in the ACC and ranked No. 4 nationally.

The Cardinals’ defense got a boost with the addition of 6 transfers in the secondary and the decision of top cover corner Kei’Trel Clark to return rather than enter the NFL Draft after missing the final half of last season with a torn ACL. Linebacker Yasir Abdullah is also an All-ACC caliber performer.

But the unit as a whole is going to have to be significantly better, especially late in games, for Louisville to make a jump in the standings and keep its coach from getting put out to pasture.

The race is about to begin.

Pounding the portal

Give Satterfield credit for understanding his situation and doing whatever he can to improve it. Instead of sitting back and hoping for the best with his job likely on the line, the Cardinals coach hit the transfer portal with the ferocity of a 300-pound defensive lineman taking his frustration out on a quarterback.

He brought in a baker’s dozen of transfers, including 6 who play in the defensive backfield. He also gave Cunningham some help with significant additions in both the passing and running game.

The biggest addition to the roster, in terms of size and impact, is 6-3, 324-pound nose tackle Jermayne Lole from Arizona State.

A first-team All-Pac-12 selection named to the Outland Trophy watch list in 2020, Lole missed all last season with a triceps injury. Although he got off to a slow start this summer while getting back into playing shape, Satterfield said recently that “he’s really shown up.”

Linebacker MoMo Sanogo from Ole Miss also projects to be a starter, as do cornerbacks Quincy Riley, who recorded 5 interceptions for Middle Tennessee State a year ago, and MJ Griffin from Temple.

Offensively, running back Tiyon Evans – Tennessee’s leading rusher until he injured an ankle last season – has been an early standout in camp while wide receivers Tyler Hudson, an FCS All-American at Central Arkansas, and Miami transfer Dee Wiggins have helped ease the blow of losing top receivers Tyler Harrell to Alabama and Jordan Watkins to Ole Miss.

The rest of the incoming transfer class consists of defensive backs Jarvis Brownlee (Florida State), Nicario Harper (Southern Miss), Jalen Alexander (Duke) and Jayden Williams (Southern Cal), plus kicker Cole Hussung (Michigan) and long-snapper Shai Kochav (Arkansas State).

Staff changes, too

Satterfield didn’t just overhaul his roster since the end of last season. He also gave his staff a new look with two significant changes. They include hiring Lance Taylor as offensive coordinator and Wesley McGriff as co-defensive coordinator.

Taylor brings an extensive background in college and pro football, having been a wide receivers coach for the NFL’s Carolina Panthers before spending the past 3 years working with running backs at Notre Dame.

“Lance is a great young coach,” Satterfield said. “He’s brought some new ideas, some new things that we can do.”

McGriff, who led some of the SEC’s best secondaries during previous tenures at Auburn and Florida, will continue to work with the defensive backs at Louisville while sharing the play-calling responsibilities with holdover Bryan Brown.

Like Taylor, he also has NFL experience, having spent 3 seasons with the New Orleans Saints.

“With his experience, he will come to Louisville and make an immediate impact on our defense and our program,” Satterfield said.

In addition to the new coordinators, the Cardinals also brought in Ben Sowders from national champion Georgia to serve as strength coach, a move designed to improve the team’s conditioning and prevent some of the late-game collapses it experienced a year ago.

Channeling his inner Lamar

Cunningham is quick to admit that he’s no Lamar Jackson. At least not yet. But that doesn’t mean he’s ready to shy away from the frequent comparisons he draws to the former Louisville Heisman Trophy winner and current Baltimore Ravens star.

He even fed into the hype himself by showing up at last month’s ACC Kickoff media event in Charlotte wearing a similar red suit to the jacket Jackson sported at his Heisman ceremony in 2016. Not that he’ll admit to purposely channeling his inner Lamar.

“I really didn’t channel it,” he said. “Two weeks ago I just walked into Men’s Wearhouse and I saw the red suit. I was like, yeah, I’m going with that one.”

Cunningham said that he’s learned a lot from watching Jackson and there are some obvious similarities beyond their wardrobe. But like a Corvette and a Lamborghini, which might look similar, there’s a big difference once the accelerator gets punched to the floor.

In the case of the quarterbacks, the biggest difference is Jackson’s arm strength.

Still, Cunningham is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback capable of winning games with both his arm and legs. He passed for almost 3,000 yards and rushed for better than 1,000 last season while accounting for 39 touchdowns – including an ACC-leading 20 on the ground.

As for those comparisons, he admits that there’s an added level of pressure in having to live up to such a high standard. At the same time, he finds it flattering to be mentioned in the same sentence as the most decorated player in program history.

“Who wouldn’t want to be compared to Lamar Jackson?” he said. “The great Lamar, in my opinion, is the best college football player ever to play the sport.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Syracuse (W)

The Cardinals begin the season with an ACC game that could easily dictate the direction of the season for both teams. The Carrier Dome was the scene of Lamar Jackson’s most memorable Heisman highlight moment, when he hurdled a Syracuse defender en route to the end zone. Cunningham probably won’t do anything that spectacular, but he’ll still be hard for the Orange to stop in leading his team to victory.

Week 2: at UCF (L)

The Knights were on the verge of winning last year’s meeting in Louisville when they intercepted a Cunningham pass inside Cardinals territory with just under a minute to play. But one play later, Jaylin Alderman intercepted a tipped pass and returned it 66 yards for a touchdown and a stunning victory with just 13 seconds remaining. This year’s game will be at the Bounce House in Orlando and UCF isn’t going to let one get away again.

Week 3: vs. Florida State (L)

One of several toss-up games and yet another matchup that could have season-long implications for both sides. The Seminoles finally seem to have figured out their quarterback issues with the emergence of Jordan Travis and, even with the loss of ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jermaine Johnson, their defense is good enough to keep Cunningham in check. Mike Norvell’s seat is the one that gets a little less hot after this one.

Week 4: vs. South Florida (W)

The Bulls’ new quarterback — transfer Gerry Bohanon — helped Baylor improve from 2 wins in 2020 to 12-2 last year. Bonahan transferred to USF after losing the starting job in the spring. It’s just a coincidence that USF won only 2 games a year ago. Lightning isn’t striking twice as the Cardinals finish their 3-week “tour” of Florida with a win.

Week 5: at Boston College (W)

Eagles’ star Phil Jurkovec was injured and didn’t play in Louisville’s win last season. He’ll provide a stern test for the Cardinals’ newly restocked secondary. Yet another coin flip. This time it comes up heads.

Week 6: at Virginia (W)

Two road wins in a row, as Cunningham outduels the Cavaliers’ Brennan Armstrong in a high-scoring offensive shootout.

Week 7: Open

Week 8: vs. Pittsburgh (L)

The Cardinals return home for the first time in 21 days and run into a Panthers team with designs on winning a second straight ACC title. A defense that returns 6 All-ACC performers from a unit that led the ACC and ranked No. 2 nationally with 54 sacks last season will have Cunningham running for his life the entire game.

Week 9: vs. Wake Forest (W)

The Deacons won last year’s game on a last-second field goal, but it was another field goal – on the final play of the first half, after officials put 1 second back on a clock that appeared to have expired – that turned out to be the difference. The Cardinals haven’t forgotten that and they’re eager to exact a little revenge.

Week 10: vs. James Madison (W)

Better get win No. 6 to qualify for bowl eligibility against the Dukes, who are playing their first season at the FBS level, because the rest of the schedule is going to be a royal pain.

Week 11: at Clemson (L)

The Cardinals could very well have earned their first victory against the Tigers last season had Cunningham not gotten banged up. But instead, they were outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter to fall to 0-7 all-time against the ACC’s resident powerhouse. This is a different Clemson team. And it’s at Death Valley. That first win in the series will have to wait.

Week 12: vs. NC State (L)

As the ACC’s preseason Player of the Year, quarterback Devin Leary garners most of the attention surrounding the Wolfpack. But the real strength of NC State’s team is its veteran defense. It’s a unit that held the Cardinals to just 13 points, their lowest offensive output in 2021. All but one starter is back.

Week 13: at Kentucky (L)

If this game is one Satterfield needs to keep his job, he might want to call the movers. He’s 0-2 against the rival Wildcats, losing 45-13 in 2019 and 52-21 last year (they didn’t play in 2020 because of COVID).

2022 projection: 6-6 (4-4), T-4th in ACC Atlantic

#GoCards

The Cardinals weren’t that far off from mounting a legitimate challenge in the ACC Atlantic last season. A bad bounce or a second put back onto the clock there was likely the difference between Satterfield getting a contract extension and having to fight to keep his job.

Four of their losses came by 6 points or fewer, with 2 others decided during the final period.

“We were so close,” Satterfield said. “Now the whole focus of the offseason has been how are we going to finish – finishing the drill, finishing the weight session that you have because, obviously, in football, the fourth quarter is the most important quarter and that’s the one that you have to finish.”

Because of the balance in the Atlantic Division below league favorite Clemson, the Cardinals will once again find themselves in games that could go either way virtually every week of the conference season. The return of star quarterback Cunningham, an influx of transfer talent, key staff changes and the memory of some painful late losses should better equip them to handle those situations.

If they don’t become better finishers, it’s their coach that could end up being finished.