ESPN’s Football Power Index has updated Miami’s win probability vs. Louisville.

The Hurricanes are coming off of a crushing loss to Florida State over the weekend. Miami also lost quarterback Emory Williams in that game, clearing the way for Tyler Van Dyke to return to the starting lineup vs. the Cardinals.

Louisville is coming off of a narrow win over Virginia last week. The Cardinals haven’t been as good on the road as they’ve been at home this season. Their lone loss this year came on the road at Pitt.

FPI is projecting this as an even game, but gives the edge to the Hurricanes at home. The model says Miami has a 53.9% chance to win this week.

If that result plays out, it would have significant implications for the ACC Championship Game. Louisville is one win a way from clinching a berth in that game alongside Florida State. However, a loss would give Louisville its second loss of the season and would create some complicated tie-breaker scenarios. North Carolina and Virginia Tech are still mathematically alive for the title game berth entering Week 12.

Miami is 11-3-1 all-time against the Cardinals.

Miami and Louisville will kick off at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.