North Carolina is gearing up for a must-win game vs. Syracuse on Monday evening.

It’s the home finale for the Tar Heels, who will end their regular season on Saturday in Durham. North Carolina has won three straight games and is on he cusp of an NCAA Tournament berth.

However, a win on Monday night vs. the Orange is likely a requirement to reach that goal.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi said on Monday that UNC needs a win in order to avoid falling to the “Last Four In” section of his bracket projection. Teams in that section are projected to face off in play-in games in Dayton before the start of the Tournament.

Here’s Lunardi’s full take on the NCAA Tournament bubble:

North Carolina has an interesting résumé. The Tar Heels have just one loss outside of Quad 1 this season, which is exceptionally rare for a bubble team. Unfortunately for the Heels, they also just have one Quad 1 victory.

The ACC having a down year means North Carolina isn’t getting a ton of credit for going 13-5 — so far — in conference play. UNC’s two best wins have come vs. Michigan and Virginia Tech, who are behind UNC on the bubble.

UNC and Syracuse tipoff at 7 p.m. ET on Monday night.