North Carolina’s stunning loss to Pitt on Wednesday night has made its path to the NCAA Tournament significantly more difficult.

The Tar Heels now have a Quad 4 loss, which will be an uncomfortable stain on their résumé come Selection Sunday. To make matters worse, UNC doesn’t have a Quad 1 victory to its name yet this season. 

However, North Carolina does have a couple silver linings over the final few weeks of the regular season. 

For one, UNC still has two opportunities to earn a Quad 1 win — at Virginia Tech on Saturday and at Duke on March 5. Neither of those games seems particularly winnable following UNC’s loss to the lowly Panthers, but that’s the level of victory that UNC now needs to boost its résumé. Again, the good news is that those chances are still available to them. 

The other thing to keep in mind is that this year’s NCAA Tournament bubble seems weaker than usual. North Carolina is in the mix with teams like Oklahoma (4-9 in Big 12 play), Creighton (No. 71 in KenPom) and San Diego State (fourth place in the Mountain West. It’s not exactly a murderer’s row of candidates. 

With that in mind, here’s a few things to note about North Carolina’s path to the Big Dance:

No more margin for error

North Carolina is 18-1 against Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4 opposition. That sort of dominance vs. lesser — or even equal — opponents shouldn’t be taken lightly. But the one loss to Pitt on Wednesday night is an example of something that cannot happen again this season. 

UNC has two Quad 3 games (vs. Louisville, vs. Syracuse) and one Quad 2 game (at NC State) remaining on its schedule. All three of those games are must-win games for the Tar Heels. 

Win at Virginia Tech

North Carolina needs a Quad 1 win. Since the selection committee began using NET rankings, no team has ever earned an at-large bid without a Quad 1 victory. The Tar Heels just have two opportunities remaining: at Virginia Tech and at Duke. 

A win over the Blue Devils would be ideal, but beating the Hokies in Blacksburg seems like a more attainable goal. It could be the difference in whether or not UNC goes dancing.

Root for Michigan

Speaking of Quad 1 wins — the Tar Heels do have another potential top-tier victory over the Wolverines. Michigan was briefly a Quad 1 win for UNC after it beat Purdue last week, but Juwan Howard’s team dropped back into Quad 2 after losing to Ohio State at home.

As of Thursday morning, Michigan is ranked No. 37 in the NET. It needs to get into the top-30 for UNC to get credit for a Quad 1 win. The Wolverines are also on the NCAA Tournament bubble, so they should be desperate for wins down the stretch. 

Teams to watch out for

It’s almost impossible to project the full NCAA Tournament bubble at this point in the season, but we have enough information now to make an educated guess. 

For simplicities’ sake, let’s use the 15 other teams on Joe Lunardi’s bubble following Wednesday night’s games. UNC is essentially one of 16 teams fighting for 8 spots — four berths into the Field of 64 and four play-in spots. There’s likely to be more movement over the next couple weeks, but here’s how that situation breaks down going into this weekend’s games:

San Fransisco (Trending up)

San Fransisco has two Quad 1 wins, but it also has a brutal loss on its résumé — at home against Portland earlier this month. The strength of schedule is a concern here — the Dons have only played in six Quad 1 games this season. To their credit, they’ve won three of them. 

Key game: At Saint Mary’s on Feb. 17

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 2
  • Quad 2 games: 0
  • Quad 3 games: 1
  • Quad 4 games: 1

Oklahoma (Trending down)

If the Sooners get in, it will likely be because of the Big 12’s reputation as the nation’s best conference this season. They’ve struggled to string together wins in conference play, but a pair of SEC victories early in the year really helps their résumé. They’ve already played 11 Quad 1 games and still have four remaining on the schedule. 

Key game: At Iowa State on Feb. 19

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 3
  • Quad 2 games: 2
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Iowa State (Neutral)

Iowa State came out of the gates hot, but have really struggled to sustain any success in Big 12 play. The Cyclones have a staggering seven Quad 1 victories, but little else about their résumé makes sense. This late February stretch will make or break their NCAA Tournament case. 

Key game: At Kansas State on Feb. 26

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 2
  • Quad 2 games: 3
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Rutgers (Trending up)

The Scarlet Knights are trending toward making the Field of 64. They’ve put together four straight ranked wins in Big Ten play and look capable of beating anyone on any given night. At this point, it would be a surprise if Rutgers doesn’t earn a spot. 

Key game: At Michigan on Feb. 23

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 4
  • Quad 2 games: 0
  • Quad 3 games: 1
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Creighton (Trending down)

Creighton has been solid in the Big East this season, but it has fallen outside the top-70 in the NET. However, the Bluejays have three Quad 1 wins and zero Quad 4 losses. They could be a problem for North Carolina in that regard. 

Key game: Vs. UConn on March 2.

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 2
  • Quad 2 games: 4
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 0

BYU (Trending down)

The Cougars have had a good year in the West Coast Conference, although they aren’t part of that league’s elite tier with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. BYU’s loss to Pacific in late January could be a real issue on Selection Sunday.

Key game: At Saint Mary’s on Feb. 19

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 1
  • Quad 2 games: 0
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 2

Memphis (Trending up)

What a rollercoaster season the Tigers have had. They hit rock bottom in January with three consecutive losses to UCF, East Carolina and SMU. Since then, Memphis has won six straight games and is trending toward an at-large spot despite Emoni Bates’ absence. Memphis already has four Quad 1 wins and two more opportunities on its schedule.

Key game: Vs. Houston on March 6

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 2
  • Quad 2 games: 1
  • Quad 3 games: 2
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Oregon (Neutral)

The Ducks have been one of the more disappointing teams in the Pac-12 this season, but they still have a chance to make it into the field. They face UCLA, Arizona and USC in consecutive games down the stretch. If Oregon can steal a win or two, it will probably make it to March.

Key game: Vs. USC on Feb. 26

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 4
  • Quad 2 games: 2
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Michigan (Trending up)

The Wolverines have failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations, but a postseason appearance is still within reach. They’re No. 37 in the NET and have six Quad 1 games remaining. Note: If they can get into the top-30 of the NET, UNC’s win over the Wolverines converts to a Quad 1. 

Key game: At Iowa on Feb. 17

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 6
  • Quad 2 games: 1
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 0

San Diego State (Trending up)

San Diego State is one of six Mountain West teams who are still hunting for an at-large berth. That’s a remarkable feat for that league, but the Aztecs will need a strong finish to the season for their résumé to stand out. The opportunity is there with four Quad 1 games remaining. 

Key game: At Wyoming on Feb. 28

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 4
  • Quad 2 games: 2
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 1

SMU (Trending down)

The Mustangs also suffered a bad loss on Wednesday night, dropping a game at Temple. It’s a Quad 2 defeat, though, so it’s not nearly as damaging as UNC’s home loss vs. Pitt. Still, SMU has some work to do down the stretch. It has only played in four Quad 1 games so far and has losses to Quad 3 and Quad 4. 

Key game: At Houston on Feb. 27

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 1
  • Quad 2 games: 1
  • Quad 3 games: 2
  • Quad 4 games: 1

Kansas State (Neutral)

The Wildcats have played one of the most difficult schedules in the country this season, which is why they’re still on the bubble with a 14-11 record. They haven’t played a game outside of Quad 1 or Quad 2 since before Christmas. That’s life in the Big 12, and it’s not going to get any easier this season. K-State still has to go to Lawrence and Lubbock. 

Key game: At Oklahoma State on Feb. 19

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 3
  • Quad 2 games: 2
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Florida (Trending down)

Florida’s only Quad 1 win came way back in November against Ohio State. The Gators are just 4-9 against the top two quadrants and haven’t won a Quad 2 SEC game in almost a month. Barring a late season surge, Florida’s résumé isn’t a concern for North Carolina.

Key game: Vs. Arkansas on Feb. 22.

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 3
  • Quad 2 games: 1
  • Quad 3 games: 1
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Virginia Tech (Trending up)

Virginia Tech has stayed respectable in the eyes of the analytics community even in the midst of a 2-7 start in the ACC. The Hokies have performed well since then, winning six straight games. Still, they don’t have a Quad win 1. Their last chance at one is on Feb. 26 at Miami. 

Key game: Vs. North Carolina on Feb. 19

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 1
  • Quad 2 games: 2
  • Quad 3 games: 2
  • Quad 4 games: 0

Belmont (Trending up)

Belmont is the last team on Lunardi’s bubble. The Bruins are 21-5 overall this season, but just 2-3 vs. the top two quadrants. They’ll need a win over Murray State on Feb. 24 — and probably a deep conference tournament run — to be taken seriously.

Key game: At Murray State on Feb. 24.

Remaining schedule

  • Quad 1 games: 1
  • Quad 2 games: 0
  • Quad 3 games: 0
  • Quad 4 games: 3