Notre Dame is going on the road as a slight underdog this week in Chapel Hill.

However, ESPN’s SP+ is backing the Fighting Irish to get the win in a hostile environment. SP+ is projecting Notre Dame to beat UNC, 33-27.

If Notre Dame is able to score 33 points in this game, it would represent a season high for the Fighting Irish offensively — by a significant margin. Notre Dame has scored a combined 55 through its first 3 games of the year.

North Carolina’s defense, however, seems vulnerable to that kind of a scoring outburst. The Tar Heels gave up 61 points to App State and 28 points to Georgia State in their last 2 games.

It’s worth noting that SP+ isn’t necessarily taking Tyler Buchner’s injury into account for this projection. SP+ is also still factoring in preseason projections because it’s relatively early in the year.

ESPN’s other predictive metric, FPI, is also picking Notre Dame to pull off the upset. Notre Dame is 20-1 all-time against the Tar Heels.

Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.