Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball preview series continues today with Virginia. We’ll preview every ACC Coastal team this week.

The Cavaliers were rolling along at 6-2, already bowl eligible and heading for what appeared to be a special season last October when they headed to Provo, Utah, to play BYU. They gave up 66 points to coach Bronco Mendenhall’s former team that night and everything went downhill from there.

The team didn’t win again, its Fenway Bowl date against SMU was canceled because of COVID and then, to the surprise of everyone in college football, Mendenhall announced that he was stepping away from coaching – the apparent victim of burnout.

It’s a decision that threatened to set the program back to square one after 6 seasons of building. Instead, it brought about a new jolt of energy with the arrival of Mendenhall’s replacement, long-time Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott.

“Getting Coach Elliott has been electric, honestly,” senior linebacker Nick Jackson said. “You can feel the buzz around campus on the grounds and just having him, he has changed a lot. He has brought a different energy to the program that I’m excited to keep doing. Coach Elliott has been great for us and I’m really glad that we got him.”

While Elliott may have won his new players over initially with his youth and energy, it’s his championship experience at Clemson that will likely have a more substantive impact over the long haul.

The new coach spent 11 seasons with the Tigers, his alma mater, including the past 7 as offensive coordinator. That background, combined with the return of quarterback Brennan Armstrong and other key elements of the ACC’s best passing attack, put the Cavaliers in a strong position to continue building on the foundation Mendenhall set and win right away.

Now if only he can figure out how to get his defense to stop somebody.

Getting defensive

John Rudzinski must love a challenge. Either that or the bar is set so low when it comes to UVA’s defense that any improvement the Cavaliers’ new coordinator can bring about will enhance his already-solid résumé.

No matter what, he has a big job ahead of him.

The Cavaliers ranked next-to-last in the ACC and 121st nationally in total defense last season while allowing 466 yards and 31.8 points per game. But that doesn’t even come close to telling the full story of their struggles.

UVA couldn’t stop the run – allowing an ACC-worst 225.8 yards per game – had the fewest sacks in the league (19) and allowed 21 pass plays of 30 or more yards. But given the explosiveness of the Cavaliers’ offense, even a small improvement to those numbers might be enough to spark a giant leap up the Coastal Division standings.

Enter Rudzinski.

He comes to Charlottesville after spending the past 12 seasons at Air Force, his alma mater, where he helped the Falcons to a 10-3 record and a win against Louisville in the First Responders Bowl last December.

His 2021 defense allowed only 19.7 points per game while ranking No. 4 among FBS teams in total defense at 296.5 yards allowed, No, 9 against the rush at 102.2 and in the top 20 in pass defense and sacks.

Although his top early priority will be finding enough capable players to execute his multiple 3-4 scheme among a unit with only 5 starters returning, his arrival has at least given holdovers such as linebacker Jackson hope that a fresh start might produce better results.

“What Coach Rud has been doing has been great,” said Jackson, the ACC’s leading tackler last season (117). “He has been getting everyone on the same page. Last year was last year and now that we have Coach Rud, he is just pushing the envelope. He is making us better every single day – a lot of individual work, a lot of tackling work, just helping us get better at our craft individually and collectively with the team teaching segment.”

Slash no more

After 5 seasons of college football, Keytaon Thompson finally appears to have found a position.

He started as a quarterback at Mississippi State, where he led the Bulldogs to a win against Louisville in the 2017 TaxSlayer Bowl that spoiled Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson’s farewell with the Cardinals. After transferring to Virginia and suffering a shoulder injury, he became an effective slash – a hybrid running back/receiver/change-of-pace quarterback who gave ACC defenses fits because of his versatility.

He led the Cavaliers in receiving with 78 catches for 990 yards while amassing 247 rushing yards and scoring six touchdowns last season.

But now with the arrival of Elliott – the 5th head coach of his college career – Thompson is transitioning to a more specialized role as a wide receiver.

“I just really want to be prepared to play wherever the coaching staff needs me to play,” the 6-5, 216-pound graduate student said. “Right now I’m focusing on wide receiver and just really developing my skills there, but I’m definitely working athletically just to be ready for whatever the coaching staff throws at me.”

And it’s thrown a lot at him.

Because of Elliott’s background as a receivers coach working with some of the nation’s best at Clemson, the new Cavaliers coach is pushing Thompson hard in an effort to refine his skills and transform him from a great athlete to an elite pass catcher.

“The biggest area I’ve seen grow is just accepting the challenge to become a technician at the position,” Elliott said. “I already know he’s a great football player. He has a great football mind. He just has that sense, that knack. Now can we add the technical aspect of it to complete his game?”

Hit the ground running

Armstrong and his fleet of talented receivers, led by Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks, were fun to watch last season while averaging nearly 400 yards per game through the air and ranking No. 2 nationally in passing offense. But because those impressive statistics only added up to a .500 record, Elliott has set his sights on creating more balance this year.

UVA ranked dead last in the ACC on the ground in 2021 and its top returning rusher is Armstrong with just 235 yards, although he did score 9 touchdowns. The second-leading returner is Thompson, who is now exclusively a receiver.

That leaves Mike Hollins, who carried just 49 times for 213 yards and 2 scores, as the most experienced player in the running back room.

There are high hopes that incoming freshman Xavier Brown, the Kentucky Gatorade Prep Player of the Year, can step in and make an immediate impact and with former running back coach Des Kitchings now serving as offensive coordinator, there’s realistic hope for improvement.

It would also help if the new coaching staff can shore up the offensive line that was a major Achilles’ heel last season. But if all else fails, there’s always a wing and a prayer with the aptly named Armstrong.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Richmond (W)

Elliott gets an opportunity to make a positive first impression against an FCS opponent that barely finished above .500 last season. But the Cavaliers better not take the Spiders too lightly or they may bite, as they did with a 37-20 win at Scott Stadium in 2016.

Week 2: at Illinois (W)

UVA handled the Illini easily at home last year, winning 42-14 on a 405-yard, 5-touchdown passing effort from Armstrong and one of the season’s most complete defensive efforts. While winning on the road is never easy, especially now that Illinois coach Bret Bielema is now in the second year of his rebuild. But with Armstrong and all his receivers back, it’s hard to imagine the Illini making enough of an improvement to change the outcome of the rematch.

Week 3: vs. Old Dominion (W)

A sneakily tricky game against an in-state opponent. The Monarchs won 6 games and played in the Myrtle Beach Bowl last season, but if the Cavaliers stay focused and don’t turn the ball over, they shouldn’t have any trouble putting another notch in the win column.

Week 4: at Syracuse (L)

Former UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae and quarterbacks coach Jason Beck were members of Mendenhall’s staff at UVA and know Armstrong and his tendencies well. They’re now at Syracuse, and their scouting report and a defense that ranked No. 2 in the ACC against the pass last year will be enough to give the Cavaliers their first reality check of the new season.

Week 5: at Duke (W)

The Cavaliers go on the road for the second straight week but bounce back against a team they’ve beaten 7 straight times, including a 48-0 shellacking last season. This could be a game in which Elliott and Kitchings turn young back Brown loose against a defense that ranked 13th in the ACC against the run in 2021.

Week 6: vs. Louisville (L)

This should be an old-fashioned offensive shootout featuring two of the ACC’s best quarterbacks. Armstrong and Malik Cunningham should have a field day putting up big numbers, just as they did in last year’s 34-33 Cavaliers win. Neither defense is a world beater, but Louisville’s is just a little bit better and that should be enough to pull out the W.

Week 7: Open

Week 8: at Georgia Tech (L)

Another high-scoring game the Cavaliers were able to hold on and win in 2021. The difference this time it will be played on a Thursday night on the road against a Yellow Jackets team looking to take advantage of a rare toss-up on their brutally difficult schedule.

Week 9: vs. Miami (L)

Two programs with first-year coaches go head-to-head. The difference is that the Hurricanes’ Mario Cristobal has more to work with in his debut season than Elliott, especially on defense.

Week 10: vs. North Carolina (L)

You want to talk about a home-field advantage? Try Scott Stadium when UNC comes to town. The Cavaliers were so dominant winning 14 straight at home against the Tar Heels from 1983-2008 that the folks in Chapel Hill referred to it as “the Charlottesville Curse.” If not for Mike London, who went 0-3 against UNC in Charlottesville, the streak might still be going. If this game had been scheduled earlier in the season, the dominance might have continued. But the Tar Heels, quarterback Drake Maye and their defense under new coordinator Gene Chizik have had time to grow and improve, and their results show it.

Week 11: vs. Pittsburgh (L)

The defending ACC champions are making another run at the title and even though they’ll be without their top offensive weapons from last season – quarterback Kenny Pickett and receiver Jordan Addison – their defense is still elite and their ground game is among the best in the conference. That is bad news for a UVA defense that had trouble stopping the run.

Week 12: vs. Coastal Carolina (W)

The Chanticleers are no pushover. They’ve knocked off a Power 5 opponent in each of the past 3 years, including an upset of then-undefeated BYU, and have one of the best young coaches in the country in Jamey Chadwell. But the Cavaliers will be motivated to break a 5-game losing streak and reach the 6-win mark and earn bowl eligibility. They’ll avoid being Coastal’s latest victim.

Week 13: at Virginia Tech (W)

The Hokies have won 21 of the past 23 meetings in this lopsided rivalry, including 15 straight from 2004-18, and the past 2. But the dynamics of the series have changed with the arrival of new coaches Elliott and Pry. The Cavaliers have by far the deeper, more experienced roster. If they’re going to turn the tide and win in Blacksburg for the first time since 1998, this is the year to do it.

2022 projection: 6-6 (2-6), T-4th in ACC Coastal

#GoHoos

Elliott’s work at Clemson made him a hot commodity in the coaching profession, but he wasn’t about to leave until the time and the opportunity were right. The moon and stars finally aligned last winter after the Tigers’ run of 6 straight ACC championships ended.

The former offensive coordinator, who had turned down head coaching offers in the past, had his pick between ACC rivals Virginia and Duke.

From a football standpoint, the decision should have been a no-brainer. But just in case there was any doubt, the deal was sealed after a series of what Elliott described as off-the-record conversations with UVA athletic director Carla Williams.

“There’s a lot of similarities between where I was coming from and UVA,” he said. “It’s a college-oriented town. It’s in the ACC and I believe that is the best conference in college football.

“I’ve experienced it at the highest level, so I knew I had a chance to compete. I wanted to be somewhere where I could build what I believe is the model program that shows you can win at the highest level, but you don’t have to compromise anything from a character standpoint, an academic standpoint and a player development standpoint.”

His predecessor Mendenhall appeared to have the Cavaliers headed in that direction with an Orange Bowl appearance in 2019 before COVID, then burnout, slowed the momentum.

Now it’s up to Elliott to get it back.