Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Wake Forest. We’ll stay with the ACC Atlantic all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every ACC Coastal team.

Next man up.

It’s the phrase every coach uses to stress the importance of having capable backups ready to step in and play any time a key performer goes down with an injury.

Wake Forest’s Dave Clawson knows it well.

In 2018, Jamie Newman stepped in at quarterback after starter Sam Hartman broke his foot late in the season to lead the Deacons to wins in 3 of their final 4 games. Last year, after starting wide receiver Donavon Greene was lost to a season-ending knee injury just before the start of fall camp, replacement AT Perry stepped in to become a first-team All-ACC performer.

So while the rest of the ACC began writing Wake off almost immediately after it was announced that Hartman would be sidelined indefinitely because of an unspecified medical condition that required a surgical procedure last week, Clawson has remained outwardly calm.

“These things can happen for a multitude of reasons,” Clawson told reporters after a recent practice. “You’re always preparing your twos to be a one. Clearly it happened last year with Atorian Perry. He was a two, (but in) his mindset, he was a one and look what he did.”

Perry’s performance was, in fact, impressive.

But comparing his impact to that of a fourth-year starting quarterback coming off a season in which he led his team to an Atlantic Division title is a little like comparing a flight attendant serving drinks in the cabin to a pilot flying the plane.

And yet, whoever ends up running the Deacons’ difficult-to-defend slow-mesh RPO attack will at least have the advantage of being surrounded by a wealth of offensive talent.

The receiving corps includes Perry, who caught 71 passes for 1,293 yards and a school-record 15 touchdowns in 2021, reliable slot man Taylor Morin and a healthy Greene, who is healthy and ready to return to action.

Holdover running backs Justice Ellison and Christian Turner combined for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns between them, easing the transfer of leading rusher Christian Beal-Smith to South Carolina.

Clawson said that while he believes Hartman will be back in action sooner than later, he expressed confidence that backups Mitch Griffis and Michael Kern are both capable of filling in without a significant dropoff.

Voters on the Associated Poll seem to agree. Given the chance to change their ballots in light of Hartman’s indefinite absence, they still selected the Deacons No. 22 in their preseason poll. It’s only the second time in school history that they’ve been ranked heading into a season.

Only time will tell if those high hopes are still warranted.

Who are Mitch Griffis and Michael Kern?

Clawson named Griffis as his QB1 in the immediate aftermath of Hartman’s situation, but hedged his bets by saying that Kerns also was getting practice reps with the starters and was still in competition for the starting job for the opener against VMI.

Griffis is a 5-11, 192-pound redshirt freshman who has seen action in 8 games in his first two college seasons, completing just 4-of-13 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown.

“He runs the offense well. He’s got savvy. He anticipates throws,” Clawson said. “He’s a little bit like Sam in terms of how important football is. He’s a compelled guy and our team knows how hard he’s worked and how hard he’s prepared.”

Kern, a 6-2, 190-pound redshirt sophomore who committed to Toledo before flipping to the Deacons, has slightly more experience than Griffis. He’s appeared in 10 games over the past three years, going 21-of-38 for 370 yards and a score. That includes a 58-yard completion to Perry in a mop-up role against Clemson last year.

Both Griffis and Kern were 3-star recruits. Neither has started a college game.

Their combined 42 passing attempts are 1,118 fewer than Hartman, who has thrown for 9,266 yards and 72 touchdowns while going 20-12 as the Deacons’ starter. But if there’s any truth to the widely-held belief that Wake is a system program and that its star quarterback is simply a product of that system, it’s not unreasonable to think that either backup is capable of putting up similar numbers.

“The confidence level in those guys is high. Michael, too,” Clawson said. “Michael can go out there and lead us down the field. That’s not just coach-speak.”

Welcome back, Brad

Inconsistent doesn’t begin to describe the performance of Wake’s defense last season.

The Deacons were good enough to win the Atlantic Division, offsetting averages of 29 points and 413 yards per game by forcing 29 turnovers, but they were so bipolar that Clawson admits he wasn’t sure which team would show up from week to week.

This is a unit that held Florida State, Virginia, Duke and Boston College to 17 points or fewer, but was also torched for 45 or more points 5 times – including 56 against Army in a game Wake won.

The elevators at Truist Field’s McCreary Tower didn’t go up and down so much.

The task of bringing more stability to the defense has become more urgent than ever, given the uncertainty surrounding the offense without Hartman. It’s a job inherited by new coordinator Brad Lambert.

New is a relative term when it comes to Lambert. He’s actually a throwback to the Jim Grobe era of Deacons football and was a member of the staff that led Wake to the ACC championship in 2006. He was brought back to fill the opening left when Lyle Hemphill moved over to ACC rival Duke to join the staff of another Wake assistant, Mike Elko.

Lambert has head coaching experience at Charlotte and most recently served as DC at Marshall and Purdue, where his defenses made significant immediate improvements. That experience was a major selling point for Clawson.

“Obviously, the work that Brad did at Wake Forest, at Marshall and at Purdue and as a head coach at Charlotte, he was a proven commodity,” Clawson said. “I think we’re capable of a lot of improvement on that side of the ball, and I’m very comfortable and confident that we’re going to get there with Coach Lambert and the staff that he brought in.”

Automatic, no more

No kick is automatic, especially with a game on the line. But for the past 4 seasons at Wake, it’s been as close to a sure thing as possible thanks to the dependable leg of Nick Sciba.

Sciba set an NCAA record by making 34 consecutive field goals and finished his career with the second-highest percentage ever at 88.9% while never missing an extra point as a Deacon.

But now he’s gone, leaving the unenviable job of replacing him to redshirt freshman Matthew Dennis.

You want to talk about pressure. Staring down a game-winning kick on the game’s final play is nothing compared to what Dennis will have to face this season.

The kid has plenty of kicking chops. He made all 9 of his field goal attempts at Myers Park High in Charlotte and was named North Carolina’s all-state kicker by Rivals.com. Now he has to prove he can get the job done at a higher level.

Wake led the ACC in red-zone conversions last season at 92.5% (scoring on 62-of-67 trips). A major contributing factor to that success rate was the faith Clawson had in Sciba’s ability to put points on the board. The coach might be inclined to be more aggressive in such situations this season, at least until – or if – he builds a level of trust in his new kicker.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. VMI (W)

Clawson couldn’t have picked a better opener under the circumstances. Griffis and Kemp would have gotten plenty of snaps against the Keydets even if Hartman was available. Now both will get even more of an opportunity to get their feet wet and build confidence against a defense that allowed an average of 33 points per game against FCS competition in 2021.

Week 2: at Vanderbilt (W)

This could be tricky, especially if Hartman is still sidelined. The Commodores might be among the dregs of college football and are coming off a 2-10 season that included a 20-point blowout loss to East Tennessee State at home, but they’re still a member of the SEC and they’ll have 2 games under their belt, thanks to a Week 0 game at Hawaii. But the Deacons are a better team and that should be enough to pull them through.

Week 3: vs. Liberty (W)

Unless Malik Willis decides to leave the Tennessee Titans and return to school for another season, the Deacons should be OK in this one.

Week 4: vs. Clemson (L)

It doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback for the Deacons. No disrespect to the defending Atlantic Division champions, but when it comes to the Clemson-Wake Forest series, the Tigers are the Harlem Globetrotters and the Deacons are the Washington Generals. The last time Wake won in this series, Tommy Bowden was fired as Clemson’s coach the next day. That was 14 years ago. Over the past 4 meetings, the Tigers have won by a combined margin of 200-46. Put this one down in Sharpie.

Week 5: at Florida State (W)

Clawson has said that Hartman will be back sooner or later, so let’s go under the assumption that he’ll be ready to return by the time the Deacons head to Tallahassee. If he’s not, this is the game that will become the litmus test as to whether it’s the system or the quarterback that makes Wake’s offense so potent.

Week 6: vs. Army (W)

Get your calculators out. Between them, the teams combined for 126 points and only one punt when they met at West Point last season. The Deacons won 70-56, arriving at their score in just 17 minutes of possession time.

Week 7: Open

Week 8: vs. Boston College (W)

This matchup produced arguably the Deacons’ most complete effort of the 2021 season and it came on the road with the division title and a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line. This promises to be a better BC team than the injury-riddled squad that was playing out the string at the end of last year. But it’s in Winston-Salem, where Wake has won 9 straight over the past 2 seasons.

Week 9: at Louisville (L)

Malik Cunningham gave the Deacons fits last season, throwing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns and running for a pair of scores. It took a clutch final drive and a game-winning field goal by Sciba to escape. Sciba is gone, Cunningham is not and the game is at Louisville. That’s not a good combination for Wake.

Week 10: at NC State (L)

The Wolfpack are another team with a score to settle against the Deacons after last year’s loss in Winston-Salem cost them a shot at the division title. Wake has won 9 of the past 10 meetings played on its home field. State has been equally dominant when the South’s longest continuous rivalry is played in Raleigh, winning 6 of the past 7 at Carter-Finley Stadium. That’s where this year’s game will be played.

Week 11: vs. North Carolina (W)

Unlike last year’s game, this one will count in the ACC standings. And unlike last year’s game, Sam Howell won’t be around to light up the Deacons’ secondary like he did in the Tar Heels’ 58-55 shootout win.

Week 12: vs. Syracuse (W)

Two of the past 3 meetings have gone to overtime, so this one could be close. But it’s to the Deacons’ advantage that the annual showdown between the Atlantic Division rivals is being played so late in the schedule. There’s a good chance the Orange will be playing for an interim coach by this time and will be eager just to get the season over with.

Week 13: at. Duke (W)

The only thing better than beating up on a cupcake at homecoming is sending your seniors out with a victory. As bad as Syracuse figures to be, Duke projects to be even worse. It should be a happy sendoff for the Deacons’ upperclassmen.

2022 projection: 9-3 (5-3), 3rd in ACC Atlantic

#GoDeacs

Predictions such as this are an iffy proposition under the best of circumstances. Injuries, bad bounces and other unforeseen variables can change the course of a season in a heartbeat … especially when they involve a quarterback. So until Hartman’s status is determined, any projection involving the Deacons is a crapshoot.

Those 9 wins described above could easily turn out to be a much smaller number if Wake’s veteran starter isn’t in the lineup for a majority of the season. Or if either of his two inexperienced backups have trouble meeting the challenge of replacing him.

Still, there’s a lot to like about this Deacons team.

There’s a talented, deep receiving corps, a pair of proven running backs and a veteran line on offense. A defense, energized by a new coordinator, that features proven playmakers in end Rondell Bothroyd, linebacker Ryan Smenda and safety Nick Anderson among its 7 returning starters.

And plenty of leadership to go around, regardless of the position.

“You look at our football team and you got a 7th-year tackle (Je’Vointe’ Nash). You got two, three 6-year guards. You got a 5th-year center. You got a 5th-year tight end. You got a 5th-year receiver,” Clawson said. “We have leadership across the board on offense.

“Sam is clearly the alpha, right? But he’s done such a great job in creating the tone and setting a standard that those guys aren’t going to let that standard fall off.”

In other words, next man up.