Florida State is looking for a big season in Year 3 under coach Mike Norvell, but ESPN’s Football Power Index isn’t projecting a significant leap for the Seminoles.

FPI is projecting Florida State to win 6.8 games this season, which would be FSU’s 6th straight season to fall short of at least 8 wins. FPI gives the Noles a 80.2% chance of reaching bowl eligibility and a 5.1% chance of winning the Atlantic.

Here’s FPI’s game-by-game projections, along with the model’s percentage chance of FSU winning each game:

• Aug. 27: vs. Duquesne — 99.5%
• Sept. 4: vs. LSU (in New Orleans) — 29%
• Sept. 16: at Louisville — 47.6%
• Sept. 24: vs. Boston College — 79%
• Oct. 1: vs. Wake Forest — 57.1%
• Oct. 8: at NC State — 38%
• Oct. 15: vs. Clemson — 19.9%
• Oct. 29: vs. Georgia Tech — 82.1%
• Nov. 5: at Miami — 25.5%
• Nov. 12: at Syracuse — 61%
• Nov. 19: vs. Louisiana — 82.4%
• Nov. 26: vs. Florida — 55.7%

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hat’s a difficult state of games that includes 10 contests vs. Power 5 opposition and 2 games vs. SEC teams. Florida State is favored to win 4 ACC games, per FPI: vs. Boston College, vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse and vs. Georgia Tech.

The toughest part of the schedule is the first 7 games of the season. Florida State is underdogs vs. LSU, Louisville, NC State and Clemson in the first part of the season. FSU is only an underdog to one opponent — Miami — in the month of November.

Florida State is looking for its first bowl-eligible season since 2019.