ACC insider outlines 5 options for conference as it grapples with uncertain future
The ACC is at a crossroads with an uncertain future, and there are several ways it could unfold.
ACC insider David Hale of ESPN outlined several of the possibilities in a Twitter thread, but also was resigned to the fact that “there is no easy answer.”
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court
The first option speaks to the idea that outrage of the “Magnificent 7” was largely by design, Hale wrote, but why is being $500 million behind the SEC by 2036 “untenable.”
“Hasn’t the ACC always made less than the SEC and B1G and still won champs? Yes! And in all likelihood, if this was 2018 and the gap stayed around $15-20M, it’d be OK. But there are 2 bigger issues at play now.”
What the ACC is preparing for is the seemingly inevitable development that players will be paid. Hale wrote that the courts could soon erase the middle man, and rule that athletes are employees with salaries from schools.
Another issue is the growing recruiting perception of the “Big 2” between the SEC and B1G.
Notre Dame going to the ACC has always been unlikely, and while it was given lip service, it won’t be taken seriously. Other expansion ideas to bring in the likes of Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia would not bring enough money, but some athletics directors are frustrated that the league isn’t at least pursuing expansion aggressively.
So, what can be done about it?
Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in courtLet’s look at each in more detail… 5/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
The past week has been filled with a lot of speculation on the future of the ACC, so I figured I’d put together a little thread to clarify some of the issues and options the league has.
This may be long but the TL;DR is this: THERE IS NO EASY ANSWER. (1/๐งต)
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
Now, let’s take stock of where the ACC stands. … While financials for 2021-22 aren’t available yet, expectation is a distribution of about $43M/school — ahead by a bit of what we expect from the Big 12 and $30-40M/year behind where B1G & SEC will be w/new TV deals. 3/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
So, what can be done about it?
Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in courtLet’s look at each in more detail… 5/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
Untenable why though? Hasn’t the ACC always made less than the SEC and B1G and still won champs? Yes! And in all likelihood, if this was 2018 and the gap stayed around $15-20M, it’d be OK. But there are 2 bigger issues at play now… 7/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
More importantly, the courts could soon erase the middle man & determine athletes are employees w/salaries from schools. That’d be the end for the ACC, which is why Phillips was in DC lobbying Congress to nix employee convo & halt future litigation. That’s not likely though. 9/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
Option 2: The ACC adds ND to get a new TV deal bridging the $ gap. Not happening. The notion the Irish would join the ACC was always unlikely… but it at least got lip service. Not now. Swarbrick wasn’t in Amelia Island & no one I’ve talked to even has it on their radar. 11/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn’t considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I’ve heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should’ve happened years ago. 13/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
In the short term, ACC hired Fish Bait to look into ways to work with ESPN on “new revenue streams.” I’m a bit dubious this will amount to much that really moves the needle. Ex. ACC wants to give schools more control over local ads but again, what’s in it for ESPN? Not much. 15/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
I do think ACC has real value to ESPN that it does not want to a) lose to FOX/B1G or b) have to pay tons more for in a new SEC agreement in a few years and 3) devalue a network it’s 50/50 partners on. But even if ESPN opened the coffers, ACC isn’t getting close to SEC $. 16/
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023