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Duke and North Carolina will meet in the Final Four on Saturday, and KenPom is predicting a close game.

KenPom is projecting Duke to win 79-75 and gives the Blue Devils a 64 percent chance of victory. Duke and UNC split the regular season series.

Ironically, neither regular season matchup was particularly close. Duke won 87-67 in Chapel Hill in a game that was never in doubt. Armando Bacot got into early foul trouble and UNC never recovered.

North Carolina returned the favor in Durham on March 5, winning 94-81. The was Duke’s only regular season loss that came by more than 5 points.

This will be the 258th all-time meeting between Duke and North Carolina, but the first in the NCAA Tournament. UNC leads the all-time series 101-87.

Both programs have history at stake, too. Duke is searching for its sixth National Championship under Mike Krzyzewski. North Carolina is playing in its record-breaking 21st Final Four.

Tipoff will come shortly after the conclusion of Villanova-Kansas on Saturday night.