Clemson will try to win its 8th ACC championship under Dabo Swinney when the Tigers take on North Carolina at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte at 8:15 ET Saturday night (ABC).

The Tigers, ranked No. 10, are double-digit favorites to win the game, though there are questions about their motivation. Swinney’s program is accustomed to playing in the College Football Playoff, and win or lose, there will be no playoff invite in 2022. Will that impact Clemson’s desire to win Saturday? It shouldn’t. After all, winning a conference championship and receiving an Orange Bowl bid still is a bid deal. But it is fair to wonder how Clemson will respond to the lack of any incentive beyond a conference championship, considering that until this past Saturday’s stunning home loss to South Carolina, the Tigers remained in the thick of the playoff conversation.

To win an 8th ACC championship in 15 seasons under Swinney, the Tigers will need to fell 24th-ranked North Carolina, which will be plenty motivated and playing for its 1st ACC title since Dick Crum’s Tar Heels accomplished the feat during 1980. Neither team comes into the game playing great football, as Clemson fell to rival South Carolina last week and North Carolina lost its final 2 games of the regular season.

Which team rights the ship and lifts the trophy Saturday night? Here are 5 reasons that team will be Clemson.

North Carolina’s offense was the team’s strength — and now it’s a mess

Three weeks ago, when North Carolina was 9-1 and had a 2-game homestand against a Georgia Tech team under an interim coach and an NC State team playing its 3rd-string quarterback, it looked like the Tar Heels would arrive in Charlotte 11-1 with an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff with a victory over Clemson. The 2 weeks since have not been kind to North Carolina. The Tar Heels dropped both games at home, first coughing up a 17-0 lead against Georgia Tech and later falling 30-27 to rival NC State in double overtime.

The biggest culprit in Carolina’s losing streak hasn’t been the team’s defense, which has ranged from leaky to liability all season. Instead, North Carolina has been haunted by the sudden regression of its offense. Prolific through 10 games, the Tar Heels have managed just 44 points over their past 8 quarters of football (6 quarters, 2 overtimes) and have averaged just 4.6 yards per play, almost 2.4 yards lower than than the 6.9 yards per play they averaged over the season’s first 10 games.

Drake Maye, a Heisman candidate until the season’s final 2 contests bumped him out of the conversation, has struggled to adjust to schematic changes by opposing defenses, especially the decision by Georgia Tech and NC State to drop 7 or 8 into coverage on nearly every snap and dare the Tar Heels to run the football. As a result, Maye’s production — and the Carolina offense — have stagnated. That seems unlikely to resolve itself in the ACC Championship Game, against the best defense North Carolina has played since the Notre Dame game nearly 2 months ago.

Clemson’s secondary is due for a bounce back game

Dropping 7 or 8 into coverage might be essential for Clemson, considering the way South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler dissected the Tigers last weekend at Death Valley. Rattler threw for 360 yards and had 6 passes of 20 yards or more yards during the 31-30 Gamecocks win. Maye is as capable, if not more capable, than Rattler. Clemson also initially will be playing without starting safety RJ Mickens, who is out for the opening half after being ejected for targeting late in the South Carolina game.

But this Clemson secondary is a proud unit, and while the Tigers rank 74th in the country against the pass this season, they have yet to play poorly in back-to-back games. Take the Wake Forest and NC State games, for example. Against Sam Hartman and Wake Forest, the Tigers couldn’t get off the field, as Hartman looked like a Heisman candidate throwing for 337 yards and 6 touchdowns. A week later, against ACC Preseason Player of the Year Devin Leary, the Wolfpack managed just 5.1 yards per attempt through the air, with Leary throwing only 1 touchdown pass and tossing an interception. The Tigers tend to bounce back after poor performances, and they’ll do the same Saturday night.

Will Shipley will be the best player on the field

Clemson is more talented than North Carolina. This is hardly breaking news.

But the Tigers don’t just have more blue-chip talent than their opponent, they also have the best football player on either team in sophomore running back Will Shipley. Shipley is ready for his championship moment,  and a week after failing to get him the football enough late in the game against South Carolina, Swinney and offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter will ride their 1,000-yard rusher Saturday night. Playing very near his hometown, Shipley will respond, and deliver Clemson a conference title in the process.

Myles Murphy will make a huge, game-changing play

This hasn’t been the dominant Clemson front 7 we’ve grown accustomed to over the past decade. After leading college football in quarterback hurries and pressure from 2015 through ’20, the Tigers have dropped off, 1st to 8th in pressures and 9th in hurries in 2021 to 21st in pressures and 17th in hurries in 2022, per Stats Solutions. The Tigers still rank 12th in the country in sacks, but after finishing 1st or 2nd in that category for 4 consecutive seasons in 2016-19, even that lofty ranking is a drop in production.

In Myles Murphy, Clemson still has a dominant pass rusher, as in years past. Murphy’s 6.5 sacks and 42 pressures lead the Tigers, and while he hasn’t had the consensus All-American season many expected, he’s still an All-ACC-caliber player who can change the game with a big hit. He’ll make at least 1 play Saturday night that will help change the game, winning his 2nd ACC championship in the process.

A year after not playing in this game, it will matter immensely to Clemson

Most of the chatter about Clemson’s motivation Saturday night centers around the perception that the Tigers might not care much about winning the ACC title since there will be no pot of College Football Playoff gold at the end of that rainbow.

Forgotten in that narrative? Clemson lost its grip on the ACC crown a season ago, failing to reach the conference championship game for the first time 7 seasons. Plenty of Clemson’s players, including embattled quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, remember that and will take the field Saturday night seeking redemption for that failure. That will matter, as will the opportunity to play in the Orange Bowl, which, outside of the Rose Bowl, is the oldest and most prestigious bowl game in the sport.

A motivated Clemson team still is among the most dangerous things in this sport, and the Tigers will look the part of a champion Saturday night.