For most of the past quarter century, Clemson’s men’s basketball program has been effectively dormant in March.

The Tigers have rarely made the NCAA Tournament during that span (just 7 times) and even more scarcely have they reached the second weekend (just twice). Remarkably, this week, Clemson will have the opportunity to do something it has never done before in program history — reach the Final Four.

Clemson will need to pull off 2 more upsets in order to reach the Final Four, beginning with Arizona on Thursday. Clemson only has one previous appearance in the Elite Eight, which came back in 1980. If the Tigers can get past the ‘Cats, they’ll face either Alabama or North Carolina in the Elite Eight. It’s worth noting Clemson already has road wins in Tuscaloosa and Chapel Hill on its résumé this season.

Let’s take a look at how Clemson got to the Sweet 16 — and if the numbers point to further upsets being possible for the Tigers:

How Clemson reached the Sweet 16

Clemson’s big moment comes at an unlikely time — the Tigers lost 3 of their final 4 games prior to Selection Sunday and appeared to be heading in the wrong direction heading into March Madness.

“We obviously had a hot start to the year. Like most teams, had a couple of bumps in the road, but these guys never doubted it,” Brad Brownell said after the Baylor win. “We never quit. We just kept working. And we came into this tournament pretty determined and pretty confident. Just glad to see it paid off.”

Despite being a No. 6 seed, the Tigers were underdogs to No. 11-seeded New Mexico in the first round last week. However, Clemson earned a dominant 76-55 win over the Lobos.

Clemson’s offense had a good, but not great day against New Mexico. The Tigers posted an opponent-adjusted offensive rating of 120.1 against UNM, per BartTorvik. For context, Clemson’s season-long average in that category is 117.1.

Where Clemson took a big step forward is on defense. In holding New Mexico to just 55 points, it posted an opponent-adjusted defensive rating of 72.3 — its lowest output in any game all season long.

The Baylor game showed a similar pattern. Clemson was solid offensively, but put in an elite effort on the defensive end of the floor. It held the Bears to an opponent-adjusted defensive rating of 82.4 — its second-lowest total in any game this season. That performance led to a 72-64 win over Baylor that was closer than the final score may lead you to believe.

Is Clemson’s success sustainable?

There is a big — and potentially troubling — reason for Clemson’s statistical defensive improvement: 3-point shooting. New Mexico and Baylor shot the ball incredibly poorly against Clemson. They combined to make just 9-of-47 3-point attempts (19%). UNM was a poor 3-point shooting team (32.7%) for most of the season, but the Bears made over 39% of their long-range attempts this year. Clemson’s 3-point defense ranked 11th in the ACC in 2023-24, so it hasn’t been particularly special prior to the NCAA Tournament.

Both New Mexico and Baylor struggling from 3-point range as much as they did vs. Clemson could be a red flag if you’re looking to back the Tigers for the rest of this Tournament. ShotQuality’s numbers suggest Clemson was lucky in both of its wins. Its model, which assigns a value to every shot attempt in a game, said New Mexico underachieved its expected total by 22.4 points. The model also said Baylor underachieved its expected point total by 14.8 points.

How much of Clemson’s 3-point defense can be attributed to variance rather than improved defensive schemes or effort? A little bit of both, perhaps. After the Baylor win, Brownell acknowledged that Clemson may have benefitted from a bit of shooting luck in addition to “mixing” up coverages.

“Number one, limit 3s. I thought we did as good a job as you can,” Brownell said of Clemson’s game plan. “They’re an elite offensive team with good players and great coaching, and we just really challenged our guys this week. I do think we mixed a couple of things up that was good within our coverages, and I’m sure they missed a few that they normally make.”

Offensively, Clemson does have a bit of upside going into the Sweet 16. Clemson went 13-of-38 from 3-point range in its first 2 games of this Tournament, which is good for 34.2%. That’s not a bad number by any means — but it is slightly below Clemson’s season average (35.3%). It wouldn’t be stunning to see Clemson have more success from long range against Arizona in the Sweet 16.

PJ Hall, the Tigers’ best player, has not played particularly well through 2 NCAA Tournament games. He has 25 points on 20 shots to go with 4 turnovers and 9 fouls (he fouled out late in the Baylor game) across both contests. Hall averaged 18.5 points per game this season on efficient percentages, and Clemson will need him to get back to that level if it wants to pull off the upset against Arizona.

How Clemson matches up with Arizona

Arizona has been a tough matchup for teams all season long, although the Wildcats did have some trouble in Pac-12 play late in the year. The Wildcats advanced to the Sweet 16 after earning double-digit victories over Long Beach State and Dayton last weekend.

Arizona’s 3-point shooting is a concern for Clemson if you believe regression could be coming for the Tigers. The Wildcats made 37.3% of their attempts from long-range this season, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. Caleb Love is a proven scorer in the NCAA Tournament and leads Arizona with 92 made 3-pointers this season. Kylan Boswell has also been good from deep, making 38.5% of his 3-point tries this year. Arizona is more than capable of hurting C

There isn’t yet a consensus on the betting line for this game. DraftKings is currently offering Clemson +7.5 if you’re interested in backing the Tigers. FanDuel has the best price on Arizona, making the Wildcats at 6.5-point favorite (-118). On the money line, DraftKings is offering Clemson +260 (implied odds of 27.78%). EvanMiya’s model gives Clemson a 29% chance to win outright, which indicates there may be a bit of value on the Tigers’ money line.

Clemson and Arizona will tip-off at 7:09 p.m. ET on Thursday night.