Louisville and NC State will battle in the first round of the ACC Tournament on Tuesday afternoon.

Neither the Cardinals nor the Wolfpack appear to be in position to earn an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, which means they would need to run the table in Washington DC in order to make the field of 68 this year. That quest for both teams starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday afternoon.

These teams met once during the regular season. NC State defeated Louisville 89-83 on the road back in January.

Let’s break down this matchup:

Louisville vs. NC State Betting Odds

Spread: NC State -8.5 (FanDuel) 

Total: Over/Under 149.5 points (FanDuel)

Betting trends to know for Louisville

Louisville is…

  • 12-18-1 against the spread
  • 9-12-1 against the spread as an underdog
  • 8-11-1 against the spread in ACC games

Betting trends to know for NC State 

NC State  is…

  • 13-17-1 against the spread
  • 8-11 against the spread as a favorite
  • 8-11-1 against the spread in ACC games

3 notes for the game

NC State has a good track record against teams of Louisville’s caliber 

NC State doesn’t have many good wins this season, but the Wolfpack have taken care of business against bad teams all year. Louisville, who enters Tuesday ranked 197th nationally in KenPom, certainly qualifies as a bad team. 

NC State’s “worst” loss of the season so far, per KenPom ratings, came against No. 83 Ole Miss way back in November. Against teams ranked above that threshold, NC State is a perfect 13-0 straight up this season. That includes an 89-83 road win over the Cardinals back in January.

NC State is undefeated straight up this season when favored by 7 points or more. However, the Wolfpack have covered the spread in just 4 of 10 such games so far this season.

Louisville has a thin path to victory

Louisville’s offense was — and is — putrid this season. The Cardinals rank 206th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and are dead last amongst ACC teams in that category. However, they do appear to hold one potentially-important advantage in this matchup: free throw rate.

Louisville posted a free throw rate of 39.5% this season, which ranks in the top-30 nationally per KenPom (it’s just about the only offensive efficiency stat where Louisville is above-average, let alone this highly-ranked). NC State’s free throw rate defense, on the other hand, has been poor this season. The Wolfpack rank outside of the top-200 nationally in that category.

The Cardinals score over 23% of their points at the foul line, which ranks 14th nationally. Making NC State pay at the free throw line — and playing better-than-expected defense — is perhaps Louisville’s best shot at pulling off the upset in this matchup.

Both coaches on the hot seat

It’s no secret that both coaches are on the hot seat entering this game. Louisville is widely-expected to part ways with Kenny Payne after the Cardinals’ season officially ends — they’ve won just 12 combined games over the past 2 seasons of Payne’s tenure. They finished in last place in the ACC this season with a 2-18 record and have also lost 18 of their last 20 games overall.

NC State’s Kevin Keatts is also perceived to be on the hot seat after 7 years in Raleigh. Keatts has made the NCAA Tournament just twice during his tenure with the Wolfpack. NC State is also under .500 in ACC play during Keatts’ time at the helm. This season, the Wolfpack have struggled down the stretch by losing 7 of their last 9 games. If NC State doesn’t make a run to the ACC Tournament title and earn a NCAA Tournament berth, it’s possible the program will move on from Keatts.

It will be interesting to see how the coaching dynamics will impact this game — if at all. Specifically, if either team rallies around its coach to begin the postseason.

1 pick for this game

NC State -8.5. Louisville has not won a game away from home this year since Jan. 10. It hasn’t lost a game away from home by single-digits since Feb. 7. The Cardinals have lost 18 of their last 20 games and have been largely non-competitive this season once again, particularly against power-conference competition. If either of these teams are going to rally around their struggling head coach, I expect it to be NC State.