Tennessee is gunning for a shot to be the final No. 1 seed in March Madness, but the Vols have some company from North Carolina entering conference tournaments.

In Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology for ESPN, the Vols occupy the final No. 1 seed with Purdue earning the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. UConn and Houston also occupy the top line as 1-seeds.

Meanwhile, UNC is the first No. 2 seed for Lunardi as the No. 5 overall team in the tournament. The Tar Heels ended their regular season with a win over Duke to secure the outright ACC title heading into the ACC Tournament.

Can the line for the final No. 1 seed flip during the conference tournaments? That’s up for debate, but the latest AP Poll sheds some interesting light.

On Monday, the Tar Heels jumped ahead of the Vols to No. 4 overall, flying up 3 spots after the win over Duke. Meanwhile, Tennessee fell to No. 5 after losing at home to Kentucky in the final game of the regular season.

Implications for the week ahead

To be clear, the AP Poll does not dictate overall seeding in the NCAA Tournament. For example, Houston remains the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, but Purdue is projected as the top overall seed by Lunardi.

So, let’s look at the numbers as the Vols embark on the SEC Tournament where they are +130 at DraftKings to cut down the nets in Nashville.

On the surface, UNC holds a better record against teams ranked in the AP Top 25. In that regard, the Tar Heels are 6-2 while the Vols are 6-4.

The teams also carry similar profiles when it comes to their KenPom numbers. The Vols rank 5th in adjusted efficiency margin while the Tar Heels check in at No. 8 in the country.

The two are separated by the slimmest of margins in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tennessee ranks 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. North Carolina ranks 5th in that regard.

The current edge likely boils down to strength of schedule where Tennessee went 14-4 in the deep SEC. Meanwhile, UNC went 17-3 in ACC play, but that conference is currently expected to send just 4 teams to the Big Dance.

Per KenPom’s strength of schedule, Tennesse has faced the 7th strongest schedule in the country. Purdue (5th in strength of schedule) is the only other top-10 team in KenPom efficiency to also face a top-10 schedule. UNC’s strength of schedule is rated 20th.

Now, those numbers are all tied to past performance. As things currently stand, it’s the Vols for the final No. 1 seed, and that picture is clear.

This week, things could conceivably change, but it would take a wild swing in the respective tournaments.