RALEIGH, NC — If you’re looking for the single biggest reason preseason No. 1 North Carolina is staring at an NIT berth — or worse — the Tar Heels provided it during back-to-back possessions late in their loss Sunday at rival NC State.

The Tar Heels had just made back-to-back 3-pointers — a rarity this season — to grab a 3-point lead when Caleb Love grabbed a long defensive rebound and raced the other way. Backcourt mate RJ Davis streaked up the sideline.

UNC had a 3-on-2 fastbreak opportunity and Love had options — all good ones. He could have stopped and popped for a dagger 3. He’s hit a few big ones, after all. He could have continued downhill and attacked the rim. Instead, he passed to a wide-open Davis, who was positioned perfectly for a corner 3.

We’ll never know whether Davis could have delivered the knockout blow. Love’s uncontested pass sailed harmlessly out of reach, out of bounds. An opportunity wasted.

NC State didn’t immediately capitalize. And, seconds later, after another NC State miss, Love again grabbed the defensive rebound and attacked. This time, embattled big Pete Nance fumbled Love’s fastbreak pass just enough to disrupt his timing on a layup attempt.

Two transition opportunities. Two chances to put away NC State for good. Zero points. Forget the fact that UNC followed Nance’s miss and eventually scored.

Previous teams would have turned those fastbreak opportunities into automatic buckets, quieting the sell-out crowd and forcing the opposite sideline into a momentum-stopping timeout. They would have done what UNC typically does opposite NC State: take care of business.

This team? This team can’t finish.

Their lack of explosiveness on offense is unthinkable, really, considering who pays for their uniforms. Clearly, it’s not the shoes.

NC State outscored UNC 25-7 in fastbreak points Sunday.

That’s not a typo and it’s not an anomaly.

UNC ranks 8th in fastbreak points this season.

Not in the nation. Not even in the ACC.

No, Michael Jordan’s program ranks 8th in their own state in getting transition buckets. They came into Sunday’s matinee averaging just 10.27 fastbreak points per game. UNC-Asheville averages more.

Forget Vinsanity. That’s insanity.

You don’t have to be a well-studied Carolina basketball historian to know how woefully uncharacteristic that number looks compared with previous teams, how different and iso-dominant and stagnant this offense looks compared to others. NC State might have invented the alley-oop from Monte Towe to David Thompson, but the Tar Heels perfected it.

It’s difficult to get through a UNC basketball highlight from the past 40 years that doesn’t include 5 fastbreak dunks.

What we’re seeing now is not “Carolina basketball.”

Numbers support and expose what everybody is seeing, too. Since the 2009-10 season, North Carolina averaged 16.8 points per game in transition, per Synergy. That’s over a 13-year stretch. Again, they scored just 7 Sunday.

It’s more than the missing buckets this year. It’s the energy transition points provide. State fueled its decisive 18-4 run Sunday with fastbreak opportunities.

Afterward, Hubert Davis and Love lamented that key stretch, when Carolina wasted its best chance to put away the Pack and sweep the season series.

Davis quickly and correctly noted that part of UNC’s offensive struggles starts on their defensive end. Turnovers create scoring opportunities, and Sunday, UNC’s defense produced just 1 steal and forced just 3 turnovers. Those aren’t winning numbers.

Love blamed execution and also credited NC State for making shots, which limited UNC’s ability to get out in transition. Maybe. The Pack shot 45% but missed 13 3-pointers, many of which provided the possibility for the Heels to get out in transition.

But there were no alley-oops, no runaway dunks, no drive-and-dish 3s. NC State delivered those highlights.

UNC’s problem goes beyond Sunday, of course. It’s systemic. When presented with opportunities, too often, UNC’s lead guard didn’t attack, the wing didn’t always look eager to release on a catch-and-shoot. They passed up good looks to set up their high ball-screen offense.

Just as they have far too often this season.

I asked Love whether the Tar Heels had the personnel to play the high-flying style that’s as much a part of Carolina basketball as the argyle piping on their uniform.

He was adamant they have the pieces.

They have 4 more games and the ACC Tournament to find out how to get them to fit.