The preseason men’s basketball AP Top 25 dropped on Monday, giving us a full 3 weeks to debate the matter before games tip off. Kansas begins the season with the No. 1 ranking.

There is but 1 guarantee with the preseason Top 25: It won’t look this way come March. Though perhaps voters won’t whiff as badly as they did last year.

Eventual national champion UConn wasn’t even ranked to start the season. And preseason No. 1 North Carolina failed to even reach the NCAA Tournament. The embarrassing Tar Heels made history as the first-ever preseason No. 1 to miss the tourney since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

But they weren’t alone in failing to meet expectations. In all, 6 teams that were ranked to start the season didn’t even reach the field of 68.

Who should we expect to rise and fall in this year’s rankings?

Keep an eye on these 9 programs.

3 teams that are overrated

No. 4 Michigan State

Don’t get me wrong — with the veteran backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard running it back, the Spartans have a lot going for them. Add the potential impact of 6-10 freshman post Xavier Booker, and Michigan State has a shot at its first Final Four since 2019 — which doubles as the most recent Final Four appearance for any Big Ten program.

However, Michigan State has been an uncharacteristic mess defensively the past 3 years. In 2020, the Spartans allowed opponents to shoot 43.4% from 2-point range, which ranked 10th nationally. Since then, Michigan State has ranked 108th, 128th and 102nd in the category.

That must change for this to actually be a top-5 team. And it certainly could happen. But it’s bold to expect it with no evidence.

No. 5 Marquette

Like Michigan State, Marquette has several key pieces returning from last season. Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, Oso Ighodaro and David Joplin are a solid nucleus.

But Olivier Maxence-Prosper is not back after being drafted 24th overall by the Dallas Mavericks. Though he wasn’t the leader of this team, it’s safe to say he was poised for a breakthrough season. And now the Golden Eagles lack a similar frontcourt presence to play along with Ighodaro.

This is a lofty ranking for a team that will be good but perhaps only No. 4 in its own conference behind UConn, Creighton and a Villanova team that should rebound from last season in a big way. And that’s to say nothing of the potential X-factor that is Rick Pitino at St. John’s.

No. 13 Miami

The Hurricanes got hot last March, charging all the way to the Final Four as a No. 5 seed. And it seems pollsters are more focused on Miami’s postseason run rather than the regular season that preceded it.

As with the humans, the computers aren’t always right. But KenPom.com has the Hurricanes slotted at No. 45 in the country. Fellow analytics guru Bart Torvik’s initial NCAA Tournament projection places Miami in the First Four Out.

The truth will probably find the Hurricanes somewhere between 13th and 45th. But that still projects as quite overrated.

3 teams that are underrated

No. 9 Tennessee

Obviously you can’t be that  underrated if you’re still ranked in the top 10. But the Volunteers look more deserving of that No. 5 spot than Marquette.

Tennessee ranked No. 3 nationally on defense in effective field goal percentage and has the players returning to match or even improve on that number this year. Getting point guard Zakai Zeigler back from the ACL tear he sustained on Feb. 28 will be a huge boost for this team even if he isn’t back up to full speed until the start of conference play.

Tennessee’s problem is the opposite of Michigan State’s — the Vols struggled to score at times last year. If Tennessee shoots 3-pointers like it did in 2022 — 36% as opposed to last year’s 32.9% — it will be a top-2 NCAA Tournament seed.

No. 10 Florida Atlantic

If Florida Atlantic was a bigger brand name, the Owls would be flying up around the same area where we find Michigan State and Marquette.

Coach Dusty May is back, and so is the entire crew that finished 35-4 last season after losing to San Diego State on a buzzer-beater in the national semifinal. Like, all of them.

FAU is treading in the same waters that Gonzaga once did before proving it had staying power, then angered people by being “overrated” every year.

No. 21 USC

Andy Enfield’s team isn’t egregiously underrated by any stretch. But the Trojans do have top-10 potential. Especially if the final year of Pac-12 basketball proves to be comparably competitive as the final year of Pac-12 football.

USC’s roster is an interesting mix of newcomers and experience. Senior guard Boogie Ellis is the leader. Washington State transfer DJ Rodman, a 5th-year senior, is a veteran providing a new fit at wing.

But the Trojans will go as far as freshman point guard Isaiah Collier — the No. 1 recruit in the country and McDonald’s All-American Game MVP — can lift them.

In theory, that could be Carmelo Anthony far.

3 unranked sleepers to watch

TCU

It was mildly surprising to see the Horned Frogs eschewed from the rankings in favor of, say, No. 25 Illinois. Transfers Avery Anderson III (Oklahoma State) and Jameer Nelson Jr. (Delaware) are nice additions to an already solid lineup for Jamie Dixon.

Torvik’s ratings project TCU to be one of the nation’s most balanced teams — 24th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency.

Matchups always matter in March, but I’d bet on the Horned Frogs reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1968.

Auburn

Different set of computer projections, but the same idea.

KenPom puts the Tigers at a near-perfect balance of 16th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency heading into the season. That means Auburn would have to show significant improvement over last year, when it was 46th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency.

The returning frontcourt of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams gives Auburn a chance to make that leap. But it’s imperative that the Tigers shoot better for it to happen. The Tigers were just 309th in 3-point shooting and 269th at the free-throw line last year.

Maryland

If the Terps can master the art of winning games outside of Maryland, they’re a viable candidate to win the Big Ten.

Maryland’s home-road split in Big Ten play was amazing — 10-0 at home and 1-9 on the road. The only win was at a woeful Minnesota program.

Point guard Jahmir Young’s decision to exercise his 5th year of eligibility could have huge ramifications for the Terrapins. Forwards Julian Reese and Donta Scott are also back, and Indiana transfer Jordan Geronimo is an intriguing fit in Kevin Willard’s system.