Drake Maye threw for a North Carolina record 4,321 yards and tied a school mark with 38 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman last season.

Can he even come close to topping those marks this year?

The oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook don’t think so, at least when it comes to the yardage. They’ve set the over/under for the Tar Heels’ Heisman Trophy candidate at only 3,100.5 yards.

It’s a number that sounds incredibly low. Almost a sucker’s bet.

And then you remember that there’s a reason the house almost always wins. They know exponentially more than the average fan or know-it-all sportswriter. Their livelihood depends on it.

Maybe they’re counting on new UNC offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey putting more of an emphasis on the running game, something coach Mack Brown has repeatedly said he wants to do. Or perhaps they’re basing their assessment on the loss of favorite receivers Josh Downs and Antoine Green and the defensive adjustments that led to a significant drop in his production over the final 4 games of 2022.

Even if all those are the case, the over (at -108 odds) still seems as close to a sure thing as there is assuming Maye stays healthy for the entire season. 

The over/under on Maye’s touchdown passes, which is the same as the 38 he threw last year, is much more iffy. But definitely doable.

Maye is 1 of 6 ACC football players and 3 quarterbacks whose over/unders are included in FanDuel’s proposition bets for the 2023 season.

Which others are worth playing and which are best avoided like a head-hunting strong safety ready to lower the boom in the open field?

Here are some suggestions:

FSU QB Jordan Travis

Passing yards: 2,675.5 (-112). Passing touchdowns: 24.5 (-112)

Although the difference isn’t as significant as Maye’s, the yardage prediction for the Florida State star is also lower than his 2022 season total of 3,214.

And there doesn’t seem to be a logical reason.

Although the Seminoles’ offense is more balanced than that of UNC, coach Mike Norvell aggressively attacked the transfer portal in an effort to surround Travis with even more weapons than he had a year ago. He brought in Keon Coleman, Michigan State’s leading receiver, to be the yin to returning star Johnny Wilson’s yang on the outside while signing Jaheim Bell from South Carolina to bulk up at tight end.

Travis could also have the benefit of extra games to bulk up his stats should FSU live up to its preseason hype and play for the ACC championship. Or makes it into the College Football Playoff.

Bottom line: Take the over on the passing yards. Take a pass on the touchdowns.

Clemson QB Cade Klubnik

Passing yards: 2,850.5 (-112). Passing touchdowns: 22.5 (-120).

Speculating on Klubnik’s performance is a much more risky proposition than the ACC’s 2 established star quarterbacks. His body of work is nowhere near as established as Maye and Travis. It consists of only 2 extended performances, one good against a bad UNC defense and another that wasn’t quite as good against a much more formidable Tennessee squad in the Orange Bowl.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that he’ll be working with a new offensive coordinator.

That new coordinator, however, is Garrett Riley, the man responsible for turning TCU’s Max Duggan into a Heisman finalist last season. That’s definitely a positive. So is the fact that in order to reach the target of 2,851 yards, Klubnik needs only to average 219 yards over 13 games.

Even with a strong running game behind him, both the yardage and the touchdowns are well within reach.

Bottom line: Go with the over on both.

Clemson RB Will Shipley

Rushing yards: 1,050.5 (-112). Rushing touchdowns: 11.5 (-118).

Shipley rushed for 1,182 yards and 15 touchdowns last season while averaging better than 6 yards on his 210 carries. And yet he still thought that he should have gotten more touches, especially after a bitter loss to rival South Carolina and likely kept the Tigers out of the Playoff.

There’s a good chance the talented junior will get his wish this year with the arrival of Riley. But because of the up-tempo, Air Raid style offense the new coordinator favors, a bulk of his extra touches are likely to come in the passing game as a receiver out of the backfield.

Shipley, who Garrett has referred to as “a rock star,” will still have plenty of opportunities to run and gain big yards against defenses geared to stop the pass. Especially with Kobe Pace having transferred to Virginia. But the new offense might not give him as many chances to get into the end zone.

Bottom line. Take the over on the yards, the under on the TDs.

FSU RB Trey Benson

Rushing yards: 1,025.5 (-112). Rushing touchdowns: 9.5 (-108)

Benson came agonizingly close to reaching the 1,000-yard mark last season as part of the Seminoles’ productive 3-man running back rotation. After finishing with 990, he’s made no secret of his desire to go the distance and become FSU’s 1st 1,000-yard rusher since Cam Akers in 2019.

A potential obstacle could be the previously mentioned addition of Coleman and Bell to the passing game. But with a balanced offensive philosophy and 1 fewer mouth to feed in the backfield after Treshaun Ward’s departure through the transfer portal, Benson should have ample opportunity to accomplish the goal.

Bottom line: Go with the over on both.

FSU WR Johnny Wilson

Receiving yards: 990 (-112). Receiving touchdowns: 9 (-108)

This is a tricky one. Wilson had a breakout game against Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl, when he caught 8 passes for 202 yards. He is a legitimate deep threat who ranked 3rd nationally with an average of 20.9 yards per reception.

The problem is that while he accounted for 897 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2022, he did it only 43 catches. It’s a big ask for him to put up that kind of number again without significantly increasing his number of targets. And there’s no guarantee that will happen considering the upgrades the Seminoles have made at wide receiver and tight end.

Bottom line: Take the under on both the yardage and the touchdowns.