I was born in New York, grew up in Georgia and spent the majority of my adult life living in Maryland and North Carolina.

But when it comes to preseason predictions, my philosophy is more in line with a state I’ve only visited a handful of times.

Missouri.

The Show Me State.

So while Florida State is getting a lot of love heading into the upcoming ACC football season, the Seminoles are going to have to show me they’re worthy of it before I take that leap of faith onto the bandwagon.

It won’t take long for us to find out all we need to know about Mike Norvell’s team. The Noles play LSU in Orlando on Labor Day Sunday and travel to Death Valley for a showdown with Clemson 3 weeks later.

Maybe the Noles really are that good. Maybe they’re not.

Until then, the defending ACC champions are still the team to beat.

Clemson will be No. 1 and FSU No. 2 on the ballot I will submit at the league’s preseason kickoff media event coming up this week in Charlotte. 

Here’s a look at how the rest of my picks will look:

Clemson: There are questions, to be sure. But Dabo’s defense is always going to be elite and with Will Shipley running the ball and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to serve as a mentor for young quarterback Cade Klubnik, the Tigers are ready to roar again.

Florida State: The Seminoles have virtually everyone back from their 10-win season in 2022, including quarterback Travis Jordan and star pass rusher Jared Verse, and brought in one of the nation’s best transfer classes. But those 6 straight wins to end last season came against 5 teams with losing records and 7-6 Syracuse. FSU is going to be good. Maybe very good. But it still has something to prove.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels experienced some turnover from the team that won the dearly departed Coastal Division and played for the conference championship last season. But they still have Drake Maye. And it won’t take much for them to be better on defense, especially with the addition of several key transfers up front and on the back end.

NC State: The Wolfpack had a championship caliber defense last season, but was held back by a lackluster offense and some spotty quarterback play. Even before Devin Leary’s season-ending injury. Coach Dave Doeren addressed that problem by hiring Robert Anae as his new OC and reuniting him with grad transfer quarterback Brennan Armstrong. State is always better when the expectations are lower. And this year, they are.

Pittsburgh: Similar to NC State, the Panthers struggled at the most important position on the field last year. They still won 9 games, thanks to their defense, the ground game and a massive offensive line. Coach Pat Narduzzi’s team still has those 3 elements going for them again this year. And they may have addressed the quarterback issue – as long as transfer Phil Jurkovec from Boston College can stay healthy.

Duke: The Blue Devils return most of their key pieces on both sides of the ball from last year’s surprise 9-win team, including quarterback star Riley Leonard. They might just be the third-most talented team in the league behind Clemson and Florida State. But because they play a brutal schedule, it probably won’t be reflected in their record.

Louisville: The arrival of a new coach and staff usually means that the program is in for a complete rebuild. That’s not the case with Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals. He inherited a bowl team that brings back a solid defense and has added a large haul of transfers to restock the offense. 

Miami: The Hurricanes are always picked to finish higher than they should be picked in these preseason polls. It’s an annual rite of summer in the ACC. Does that mean they can’t finally break through and live up to their expectations? Of course not. But going back to the original premise of this piece, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Wake Forest: The Deacons are the antithesis of Miami. They’re always underestimated this time of year. And they always end up overachieving. There’s a good chance that will happen again in 2023. Mitch Griffis will be fine as Sam Hartman’s replacement, especially with the best collection of receivers in the ACC and an experienced line in front of him.

Syracuse: Dino Babers saved his job by going 7-6 and getting to a bowl last year. But the heat is still on. The Orange better get off to a 4-0 start, because after that, wins won’t be easy to come by.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets finally showed some signs of life after Brent Key replaced Geoff Collins 4 games into last season. Enough, so that Key was rewarded with a contract to remain on as their full-time coach. Tech has some talent on defense, but a difficult schedule and a potential quarterback controversy could conspire to halt the momentum.

Virginia Tech: Rome wasn’t built in a day. Likewise, rebuilding the Hokies once proud program in Blacksburg isn’t going to happen overnight. Beamer Ball is a distant memory after 3 straight losing seasons, including last year’s 3-8 disaster, in which the Hokies went 1-7 in the ACC. Needless to say, 2nd year coach Brent Pry has a big job ahead of him.

Boston College: The Eagles will be better than they were a year ago when they finished in the cellar of the Atlantic Division, even with a 1st round NFL draft pick in the lineup. Will they be good enough to get coach Jeff Hafley off the hot seat? 

Virginia: It’s a victory for the Cavaliers just to be back on the field after the way last season ended. But after ranking last in the ACC in scoring offense and winning only 3 times, that’s probably the most meaningful win coach Tony Elliott’s team is going to get to celebrate this year.

Preseason All-ACC picks

Offense

QB: Drake Maye, UNC

RB: Will Shipley, Clemson; Trey Benson, FSU

WR: Johnny Wilson, FSU; Jahmal Banks, Wake Forest; Devontez Walker, UNC

TE: Oronde Gadsden II, Syracuse

C: Bryan Hudson, Louisville

OG: Christian Mahogany, BC;  D’Mitri Emmanuel, FSU

OT: Graham Barton, Duke; Zion Nelson, Miami

Offensive Player of the Year: Maye

Defense

DE: Jared Verse, FSU; Donovan Ezeiruaku, BC

DT: DeWayne Carter, Duke; Leonard Taylor, Miami

LB: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson; Barrett Carter, Clemson; Cedric Gray, UNC

CB: Fentrell Cypress, FSU; Aydan White, NC State

S: Kamren Kinchens, Miami; Andrew Mukaba, Clemson

Defensive Player of the Year: Verse

Special Teams

PK: Ben Sauls, Pittsburgh

P: Ben Kiernan, UNC

KR: Shipley

PR: MJ Devonshire, Pittsburgh