Duke and NC State will face off in the Elite Eight on Sunday afternoon.

Duke is trying to make it back to the Final Four for the second time in the last 3 seasons. NC State, on the other hand, has not reached the Final Four since 1983 when the Wolfpack won the national title.

As ACC foes, these teams have already met twice this season. Duke won by 15 points in Raleigh at the beginning of March during one of the final regular season games for either team. NC State got its revenge in the ACC Tournament with a big upset victory as a double-digit underdog.

The rubber match will decide who gets to go to the Final Four. Here’s a breakdown:

4 Duke vs. 11 NC State betting info

Duke has beaten the number in 12 of its last 16 games overall, including in all 3 of its NCAA Tournament games so far this year. NC State has won 8 straight games overall, including 6 consecutive contests outright as an underdog.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

  • Duke: 122.4 (7th)
  • NC State: 114.9 (43rd)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

  • Duke: 94.8 (14th)
  • NC State: 99.6 (57th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

  • Duke: 66.3 possessions per game (254th)
  • NC State: 68 possessions per game (148th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Jeremy Roach over 13.5 points (-135 at ESPN BET)

Jeremy Roach has cleared this number (albeit only slightly) in all 3 of Duke’s NCAA Tournament games so far. Jared McCain and Kyle Filipowski get a lot of the shine on this Duke offense, but the offense often goes through Roach down the stretch. The veteran guard averaged 14.5 points per game during ACC play and he comfortably cleared this line with 21 points in Duke’s win over NC State in Raleigh earlier this month. NC State’s 3-point defense has been very fortunate so far this postseason, but the Wolfpack could be due for some regression in that department. Roach hit 43% of his 3-pointers this season and is more than capable of hurting the Wolfpack from long range.

Kyle Filipowski over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at ESPN BET)

Kyle Filipowski was excellent in Duke’s ACC Tournament loss to the Wolfpack a couple of weeks ago. He had 28 points, 14 rebounds and 1 assist in a losing effort. The 7-footer has been playing with an increased intensity in the NCAA Tournament and I expect that to continue on Sunday against a NC State team that he is very familiar with. DJ Burns provides a unique challenge, but Filipowski has a level of quickness that most players his size don’t have. It serves him well both as a scorer and rebounder. His passing has also shown up during the NCAA Tournament with 10 assists across 3 games. I like this matchup for Filipowski.

DJ Horne under 15.5 points (-110 at ESPN BET)

DJ Horne has been NC State’s best perimeter scorer this season, but I think the Blue Devils will find a way to slow him down in this spot. Horne scored just 8 points against the Blue Devils in Raleigh earlier this month. Then, in the ACC Tournament, he came off the bench as he was nursing an injury and scored 18 points in an upset victory over Duke. I think Duke will have a better plan for Horne in this spot, especially given how important he is to NC State’s offense. Horne is averaging 15.3 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, but his efficiency has been waning. He’s shooting just 38.5% from the field during the Big Dance and has been getting to the foul line at about half the rate that he did during the regular season. I think Horne’s lack of efficiency will catch up to him in this matchup.