The college football landscape was once again flipped on its head on Thursday afternoon, with the bombshell report that USC and UCLA will be joining the Big Ten in 2024.

It didn’t take long for the questions to start flowing.

What does this mean for the rest of the Pac-12? Is college football consolidating into a super league? Will Notre Dame finally join a conference?

Will the ACC’s powers begin to look elsewhere?

Indeed, programs like Clemson, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina will likely have options. The SEC and Big Ten will soon be at 16 teams, but the consensus is that both of those leagues would be comfortable growing to 20+ in future years.

That quartet of ACC powers could be attractive to another league, likely the SEC. Given ESPN’s relationship with the ACC and its programs, it seems unlikely they would cross over to the Big Ten and FOX.

The primary sticking point is the ACC’s ironclad Grant of Rights agreement. That deal runs through 2036, and prevents programs from leaving the conference before then unless it pays a significant exit fee.

The specific details of that exit fee are unknown, but it’s believed to be north of $100 million and declining in value each year until the contract expires.

That’s a preposterous amount of money to pay, even for an industry that frequently hands out 8-figure settlement checks to fired head coaches. However, it’s possible the move could pay for itself.

Revenue distributions

Earlier this year, the SEC distributed $54.6 million to each of its 14 member institutions. That covered a 1-year period that ended Aug. 31, 2021. The Big Ten is reportedly expected to distribute nearly $60 million to each of its programs in 2022.

Consider that both of those figures are expected to rise considerably in the coming years with the respective additions of Oklahoma, Texas, USC and UCLA. Then compare it to the ACC’s distribution for 2021, which reportedly came in at $36.1 million for the 2020-21 fiscal year.

The math starts to create some pretty interesting scenarios for some of the ACC’s most attractive programs.

Clemson

Clemson has developed into one of the nation’s most dominant football programs. The Tigers have won 2 National Championships in recent years and have been a near-annual contender in the College Football Playoff. However, 2022 will be a pivotal year for the Tigers, as they look to rebound from a 3-loss season a year ago and the departures of some key assistants over the offseason.

Florida State

Florida State is certainly in a valley, having not won 10+ games since 2016. But the Seminoles aren’t that far away from their peak — going 26-2 with a National Championship and a CFP appearance from 2012-13. Despite recent struggles, FSU still has the history, fan support and resources to be a real asset for a conference.

Miami

Miami is somehow balancing both “old money” and “new money” identities as it evaluates its options. The Hurricanes’ national title hopes have been dormant for 20 years, but their geographical placement is highly favorable. They’re located within arguably the most talent-rich area of the entire country. Financially, Miami seems committed to rebuilding its program into what it was in the 1980s and 1990s. Very few programs could have lured away talent like Mario Cristobal and Dan Radakovich this past offseason — but Miami did. That upside still exists for the Canes.

North Carolina

North Carolina holds a unique place in the ACC. A lot of its value comes from the basketball side, which shouldn’t be completely overlooked. But the Tar Heels aren’t Kansas — they’re more than competitive enough on the gridiron to make themselves attractive in any realignment setting. They’re also close enough to Charlotte to give a new league access to that growing television market.

Other programs

If things fall apart at the top, other ACC programs will likely look to secure their longterm futures. NC State — which could be politically tied to UNC — is an option. Louisville and Virginia have leaned more into being basketball programs, but they’ve also remained competitive in football.

Virginia Tech is a program with tremendous fan support and history, but it has struggled in recent years and doesn’t grant access to a massive TV market. If the ACC does break up, how big the B1G and SEC are willing to get will likely determine whether or not the Hokies have a spot.

Duke is a bit of an outlier, given its status as a basketball blue blood and a football doormat. Duke is also a private school, which could complicate things, too. However, the Blue Devils’ historic basketball program will ensure it has a home somewhere.

One lever to pull

If things keep trending toward SEC and Big Ten super conferences, there is one lever the ACC could pull in an attempt to keep its most profitable members: unbalanced revenue sharing.

As it stands today, each of the ACC’s 14 member institutions receive equal revenue distribution payouts each year. In other words, Florida State and Wake Forest both make the same amount of money from its ACC affiliation.

Perhaps smaller programs like Wake Forest and Boston College would be willing to take a smaller piece of the revenue pie in order to keep profit-drivers like Clemson, FSU and Miami in the fold. That sort of arrangement could keep the ACC’s blue bloods competitive financially with the Big Ten and SEC powers.

And for the less-profitable programs, a smaller ACC revenue output would still likely be larger than what they could get negotiating a separate TV deal without the leverage of having premium brands on their side.