The ACC Tournament is set to begin on Tuesday afternoon in Washington DC with a trio of first-round matchups.

There are 2 clear favorites in this event with North Carolina and Duke holding the top seeds. However, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels proved to be vulnerable at times during the regular season and that could also prove to be the case this week during the ACC Tournament.

This piece will focus on the odds for each ACC team to win the conference crown — as well as some fun North Carolina-based props mixed in. BartTorvik’s TourneyCast projection system will be used to help calculate the expected value of a potential bet.

Here’s a betting breakdown of the ACC Tournament:

The favorites tier

Duke and Carolina are easily the favorites to take home the ACC Tournament title this year. They finished with the top two records in the league this year and are also the ACC’s only representatives included in KenPom’s top 10 entering this week.

Here’s a breakdown of their odds to win the ACC title (best price listed):

BartTorvik gives UNC the slightest of edges — 33.2% to 33.1% — over Duke to win the ACC crown this season. The Tar Heels’ regular-season sweep of Duke helped them earn the No. 1 overall seed in the ACC Tournament — and perhaps that thin margin over the Blue Devils.

FanDuel is also currently offering a reasonable price (+215) on the Tar Heels and Blue Devils to meet in the title game. We can infer from BartTorvik’s model that the odds of UNC facing Duke in the ACC Championship are 32.14%. FanDuel’s price of +215 carries an implied probability of 31.75% — there’s not a ton of value there, but it’s worth considering if you really believe in Carolina and Duke as the ACC’s 2 best teams.

Other ACC Tournament props from FanDuel include whether or not any North Carolina team will win the tournament (-460) as well as the specific outcomes of North Carolina to beat Duke in the championship (+490) or Duke to beat North Carolina in the championship (+520). Saturday Road’s Brett Friedlander, who follows the league as closely as anyone, predicts UNC will beat Duke in the ACC title game on Saturday night.

The middle tier

There are several teams outside of Duke or Carolina who could pull off a shocking upset in Washington DC this week and win the league’s auto-bid. If it’s not one of the Tobacco Road rivals cutting down the nets, here’s a look at the next-most likely outcomes:

Here are the probabilities for each of those teams to win the ACC Tournament via BartTorvik’s projections:

  • Wake Forest: 7.3%
  • Clemson: 8.5%
  • Pitt: 7%
  • Virginia: 4.9%
  • Virginia Tech: 2.4%
  • Syracuse: 1.4%

Clemson has the highest chance to win the tournament, per BartTorvik’s odds. However, in comparison with the prices being offered at various sportsbooks, Pitt is actually the best-value bet of this group. A $100 wager on the Panthers carries an expected value of $12.

The long-shots tier

Most of the ACC has little-to-no chance to win the conference tournament, per the betting markets. NC State, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech and Louisville are all at least +10000 or worse to win the title.

BartTorvik’s model gives each of those teams less than a 1% chance to win the ACC Tournament. When comparing the price for those teams to win the title with BartTorvik’s projections, none of those potential wagers register as a plus-EV bet.

Day 1 of the ACC Tournament begins on Tuesday. The tournament will conclude on Saturday night with the ACC championship game.