Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues today with Duke. Next, we’ll preview Florida State.

Previously: Boston College | Clemson.

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Great job, Duke.

Now what can you do for an encore?

The Blue Devils became the ACC’s feel-good story last year by coming out of nowhere to win 9 games in new coach Mike Elko’s rookie season.

But despite returning nearly all their best players, including breakout star quarterback Riley Leonard, and beginning the new season with significantly more confidence and experience, they’re rarely mentioned as one of the ACC’s top teams in 2023.

ESPN Analytics, for example, gives them only a 1% chance of getting to the conference championship game, ranking them above only expected bottom feeders Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Virginia Tech. 

And they received only 4 points in the Associated Press preseason Top 25, the fewest among any team that won 9 or more games a year ago.

Why such little faith?

It’s all about the schedule.

In contrast to last year’s team, which needed to beat only 2 FBS opponents with winning records to reach the 9-win mark – 8-4 Wake Forest and 9-4 UCF in the Military Bowl – this year’s Blue Devils face a much more challenging slate in Year 2 under Elko.

And the gauntlet will start right away.

In their opening game, on Labor Day in prime time with national television coverage, they’ll be staring across the line of scrimmage against defending ACC champion Clemson. The preseason pick to win the league again.

“Everything this offseason has just been about elevation,” Elko said. “We didn’t come in to have 1 good season, we didn’t come in to have one positive moment and then kind of let it all go away. We wanted to build a program. That goes over time. 

“We know for us to be the program we want and to get the respect that we really want, this is something that has to happen year in and year out. We’ve got to be successful year in and year out. I don’t think we’re there yet. We’re really excited for fall camp and look forward to go out there this fall and showing that hopefully we’re a program that can sustain this level of success.”

Win or lose in the opener , things won’t get any easier as Duke moves forward from its high-profile opener.

In Week 5, Notre Dame visits Wallace Wade Stadium for only the 3rd time, and Duke’s remaining conference schedule features tests against all 5 teams picked to finish above them in the ACC’s preseason poll.

In order for the sequel to be as good as the original, Elko and his team will have to be even better than they were a year ago.

The odds aren’t in their favor. Then again, they weren’t last year, either.

He doesn’t really suck

Leonard wears a wristband with the words “YOU SUCK” scribbled on it. But the sophomore quarterback doesn’t do it because of low self-esteem. 

In fact, it’s the exact opposite.

It’s a reminder to stay humble and keep working hard no matter how much praise is heaped upon him. And he’s gotten more than his share of pats on the back, both literally and figuratively, since beating out teammate Jordan Moore for the starting job during preseason camp last fall.

“My whole life, I’ve kind of gotten a lot of praise. So I went to my mom one day and said, ‘hey, someone has to bash me and tell me I suck to give me motivation.’ She’s like, ‘shoot, I’ll do it.’” Leonard said last month at the ACC’s Football Kickoff preseason media event. “Ever since then before every game she calls me. It just gives me some motivation.

“People are just now starting to learn about that. But it’s been happening for a long time, ever since high school. It’s a pretty funny tradition we have going.”

Leonard’s passing, running and leadership have been major factors in the Blue Devils’ rapid rise up the ACC standings. 

He completed 63.7% of his passes for 2,967 yards and 20 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions and was just as much of a threat running the ball. He led the team with 699 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

And his coach believes he’s only scratched the surface of what he can accomplish.

“I’m looking forward to seeing him as an established starter going into Year 2, as a kid who is a lot more comfortable in our system going into Year 2. A stronger kid going into Year 2,” Elko said. “I think his game can even take another step.”

‘Experience matters’

Duke returns 17 starters, 8 on defense and 9 on offense. They return 71% of overall production, which ranks 4th in the ACC, behind only Florida State, Boston College and Syracuse.

No one in the league, however, boasts more returning production on offense. The Blue Devils rank No. 1 in the ACC and in the top 10 nationally at 82%. And that experience goes much deeper than just the starting lineup from a unit that averaged 32.8 points per game and ranked among the ACC’s top 5 in scoring, total yardage and rushing yardage.

The team’s top 4 receivers from 2023 – Jalon Calhoun, converted quarterback Jordan Moore, Sahmir Hagans and Eli Pancol (who is recovering from surgery) – and 3 most productive running backs – Jordan Waters, Jaquez Moore and Jaylen Coleman – are all still around.

As is a veteran offensive line anchored by All-ACC tackle Graham Barton and 5th-year guard Jacob Monk.

Not to mention Leonard.

“Experience matters,” Elko said. “We’re going to play a lot of really close football games this year. We know that the schedule is elevated. We know that we are going to play some really talented teams. So we’re going to get into some big moments in the 4th quarter where we’re going to have to execute at a really high level. And experience is going to matter.”

Turning over a new leaf

For all the headlines Duke’s offense made in 2022, its biggest improvement came on defense.

The Blue Devils went from allowing 39.8 points per game in David Cutcliffe’s final season, a figure that ranked dead last in the ACC, to just 22.1 points – 5th-best in the league – last year.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise considering that Elko was a highly-acclaimed defensive coordinator at Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Texas A&M before taking his 1st head coaching job with the Blue Devils.

While there were plenty of personnel and schematic changes, the biggest contributing factor to the dramatic turnaround came in the area of turnovers.

Duke’s 26 takeaways (16 fumbles gained and 10 interceptions) were 12 more than the previous season. Its plus-16 were the 2nd-most nationally behind only USC.

“We had gone from one of the worst turnover teams in the country to the 2nd-best turnover margin in the nation and we did a really good job of forcing them,” Elko said. “When you look at how you flip wins and losses, the biggest indicator of success is how you do in the turnover margin.”

Despite having those 8 starters back, the Blue Devils will have to replace their top 2 tacklers in safety Darius Joiner and linebacker Shaka Heyward. But senior tackle DeWayne Carter isn’t worried about the unit experiencing much of a drop-off.

If any at all.

“We have to build that same foundation that we built last year and obviously an even better one to take that next step,” said Carter, whose 5.5 sacks and 11.0 TFLs were the most on the team last year. “The coolest part about it is our coaches do not let us get complacent. We don’t really reference last year. That’s in the past. We’re focused on Week 1.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: Clemson (L)

The Blue Devils have a lot going for them in this measuring stick opener. They have an opportunity to make a loud statement. They’re catching the Tigers early enough to take advantage of their edge in experience. Especially at quarterback. And while there will be a lot of orange in the stands, they won’t have to deal with a hostile atmosphere at Death Valley. They’ve come a long way under Elko. Just not far enough, at least yet, to knock off the defending ACC champions.

Week 2: Lafayette (W)

A well-deserved breather with a short week following a physical, emotional opener.

Week 3: Northwestern (W)

The Wildcats are a mess. They’re coming off a 1-win season and they’re playing this year under an interim staff after former coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in the wake of an ugly hazing scandal. Duke has won the past 2 meetings, both by a touchdown. This one won’t be anywhere near as close.  

Week 4: at UConn (W)

This could be a lot better matchup than it looks on paper. The Huskies are improved and it is Duke’s 1st road test. It’s a shame this is a football game, not an early season Final Four preview. Now that would be epic.

Week 5: Notre Dame (L)

Another opportunity to make a statement. Another close call. The Blue Devils will be right there for 3 quarters. But the Irish are just too physical and will pull away and win it late.

Week 6: Open

Week 7: NC State (W)

A classic matchup between one of the ACC’s best offenses against one of the league’s best defenses. Give the edge to the home team and the quarterback with more proven playmakers surrounding him. 

Week 8: at Florida State (L)

The Blue Devils have never beaten the Seminoles. Never. They’re 0-21 all-time. And few of those previous meetings have been close. The average score in the series is 50-17. This is admittedly a different Duke team than those others. While the margin will be much different, the result won’t be. The Seminoles will be in desperation mode after a couple of early stumbles and they’re not going to let another one get away.

Week 9: at Louisville (W)

Duke is also winless all-time against Louisville, albeit with a smaller sample size with only 3 previous meetings. It’s also on the road. This one, however, is much more in the Blue Devils’ wheelhouse than the previous week’s game in Tallahassee. A rejuvenated Cardinals offense under new coach Jeff Brohm will provide a stern test for Elko’s defense. But Louisville will have even more trouble stopping Leonard and his high-powered attack. 

Week 10: vs. Wake Forest (W)

Leonard torched the Deacons for a career-high 391 yards and 4 passing touchdowns, including the game-winner to Hagans with just over 2 minutes remaining in last year’s regular-season finale in Winston-Salem. This one is in Durham and Sam Hartman won’t be there to match the Duke star pass-for-pass.

Week 11: at North Carolina (L)

Leonard is good enough to outduel a lot of opposing quarterbacks. Drake Maye isn’t among them. The Victory Bell stays in Chapel Hill for the 5th consecutive year.

Week 12: Virginia (W)

The Cavaliers don’t have the defense, or the offense for that matter, to keep up with the Blue Devils. Especially in Durham.

Week 13: Pittsburgh (W)

The Panthers have had the Blue Devils’ number since joining the ACC. They’ve won the past 7 meetings between the former Coastal Division rivals and 8-of-9 dating back to 2013. But 2 of the past 3 have been decided by a field goal or less. Duke is due, especially with an opportunity to send a transformational senior class out on a high note.

2023 projection: 8-4 (5-3)

#GoDuke

There’s a very real possibility that the Blue Devils will be better than last season and still not have as many wins. Then again, with so many challenging games, including several against nationally relevant opponents, they have just as much of an opportunity to prove that last year was a stepping stone, rather than the product of a weak schedule.

In order to take the next step, Leonard and his offense will have to be as productive as it was a year ago while the defense will have to continue turning the ball, especially if it continues to be as vulnerable against the pass as it was in 2022 when it ranked 12th in the ACC at 257.3 yards per game allowed through the air.

If nothing else, the Blue Devils shouldn’t get complacent as a result of their unexpected success last season. The lack of love they’re getting heading into the new season will allow them to maintain a healthy chip on their collective shoulder.

“This whole offseason and last offseason we’ve been embracing the underdog role,” graduate offensive guard Monk said. “We’re not here to fight it out, we’re not here to stay the course, we’re here to win. We’re not here for praise or anything like that, we’re here to play ball.”

Just as they did a year ago.