ESPN’s Stanford Steve has a strong lean in the Florida State-Miami rivalry game this week.

Steve makes his picks in a weekly column with Chris “The Bear” Fallica. This week, he’s going with the Noles -7.5 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Here’s his analysis on the game:

I know you’re not supposed to give ample points in rivalry games but I have to in this one. Miami has looked abysmal most of the season and that includes a game last week where they won at Virginia in 4 OTs and didn’t score a touchdown. Florida State has had some chances to pull off some big conference wins this year against Clemson and Wake Forest but didn’t play well in those games. The Seminoles offense, led by QB Jordan Travis, will be too much for the ‘Canes. We’ll take the road team and lay the points.

As Steve alluded to, Florida State and Miami seem to be headed in opposite directions. FSU is coming off of a dominant win over Georgia Tech last weekend.

Perhaps more importantly, the Seminoles have played well against unranked opposition all season long. Even against ranked teams — which are responsible for all three of FSU’s losses — the Noles losses have come by a combined 18 points.

Miami, meanwhile, is coming off of a game where it did not score a touchdown in regulation or in four overtime periods against Virginia. The Canes are 4-4 on the season. Their only wins are against Bethune-Cookman, Southern Miss, Virginia Tech and Virginia.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night.