Florida State went from one of the feel-good stories of the 2023 season to a heartbreaking story with Jordan Travis’ injury and Playoff snub. Now, Mike Norvell is trying to reload his program for 2024 and an expanded 12-team field in the College Football Playoff.

Unfortunately, FSU has some major pieces to replace entering the 2024 season. In fact, the returning production percentage for the program is below 60% (58% to be exact), putting the Seminoles at 83rd in the country in Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings for ESPN.

Connelly’s formula accounts for transfers and even assigns different weights for different portions of production. For example, returning QB passing yards make up 24% of the offensive formula while returning receiving yards account for 23.5% of the overall number.

Defensively, returning tackles account for 69.5% of the overall formula while returning sacks make up just 8% of the formula. In terms of positions, linebackers account for around 44% of the formula while the defensive line is about 14% of the formula.

While there’s no point revisiting the pain of 2023, here is what Connelly had to say about FSU as a likely regression candidate in 2024:

Coach Mike Norvell has done a nice job of reloading in the transfer portal — he’s been one of the most consistently strong portal recruiters in the country in recent years — and it’s a bit of a victory that the Noles rank in the 80s in returning production. But 2024 will still be a bit of a reloading year.

The good news is Norvell has a strong foundation in place after back-to-back seasons of double-digit wins, and the Seminoles have a great shot to still compete in a once again very winnable ACC. Fans can use Saturday Road’s DraftKings links to stay up to date on the latest odds and trends for the ACC title entering the 2024 season.

Still, a shot at another undefeated regular season seems unlikely as Florida State prepares to replace some veteran leaders from the 2023 squad.