Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has Louisville handing USC one final loss before the 2023 season officially concludes.

The Trojans, losers of five of their last six games, will meet the 15th-ranked Cardinals in the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday night. Louisville (10-3) played in the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 2 while USC (7-5) hasn’t played since a Nov. 18 loss to UCLA at home.

In the month-plus since that game, USC has hired three new assistants to Lincoln Riley’s staff, seen several young players opt for the transfer portal, and received word that Caleb Williams will not play in the bowl game. The Trojans will look different on the field, but Connelly’s predictive model has USC losing the game without factoring all of the change into the equation.

SP+ has Louisville winning 33-30. It gives the Cards a 57% chance of emerging with the victory.

Louisville went into the final week of the season at 10-1. But a 38-31 loss to Kentucky dampened spirits and then a 16-6 loss to Florida State in the ACC title game left fans feeling deflated.

Still, it has been a strong debut for Jeff Brohm, and the Cards will have a chance to cap it with a second consecutive bowl win.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.