NC State is on the run of a lifetime.

The 11th-seeded Wolfpack have won 9 games in a row, including several against elite competition. If they had lost any one of those contests — they were underdogs in Vegas in 7 of them — their season would be over.

Instead, NC State finds itself in the Final Four for the first time since 1983.

Here’s a breakdown of how the Wolfpack got here and how their run compares to other double-digit seeds throughout history:

The biggest factor in NC State’s Final Four run

Before we dig into the history, it’s worth examining how NC State got here in the first place.

This is a team that went 17-14 overall and 9-11 in ACC play. The Wolfpack have losses to Ole Miss, Syracuse (twice) and Florida State. They lost to Virginia Tech at home. They had zero notable nonconference victories during the regular season.

Simply put, the team who has shown up for these last 9 games is not the same squad who played the first 31.

From the beginning of the season through March 9, NC State ranked 73rd nationally according to BartTorvik’s efficiency ratings. Since March 10, NC State is 9-0 and is 12th in that category.

NC State’s defense is what has made the major difference during this period, although the offense has also improved. Specifically, NC State’s 3-point defense has gone from below-average to unbelievably good in a matter of weeks.

During ACC play, NC State allowed opponents to shoot 36.2% from 3-point range. That ranked 9th in the ACC and would have been outside of the top-300 nationally if extrapolated over the course of the full season. And if NC State had continued to allow opponents to hit 3-pointers at that rate, it would have been watching the Final Four at home.

But over the course of its 9-game winning streak, NC State opponents have hit just 66 of 232 attempts — good enough for just over 28%. In the NCAA Tournament alone, the Wolfpack have held opponents to just 23.9% shooting from beyond the arc.

NC State accomplished this feat not just against other high-major teams (for the most part,  but in some cases against teams with elite shot-making profiles. Duke is in the top-15 nationally in 3-point percentage, and the Wolfpack beat the Blue Devils twice during this run. North Carolina, Virginia and Texas Tech are in the top-75 nationally in that category, too.

Is this shooting luck on NC State’s part? Theres probably some elements of that, yes. But the sample size of NC State’s 3-point defense being elite is growing and the Wolfpack do deserve some credit for their improvements on that end of the floor.

How have other teams with NC State’s profile performed in the NCAA Tournament?

Using BartTorvik’s profile similarity tool, we can examine other teams throughout history (since 2008) with similar efficiency profiles to NC State and compare their NCAA Tournament performances to what the Wolfpack have done in 2024.

Here are NC State’s opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and tempo ratings per BartTorvik:

  • Offense: 115.2 (36th)
  • Defense: 99.7 (67th)
  • Tempo: 67.8 possessions per game (157th)

According to the model, the 10 teams with the most-similar efficiency profiles (using pre-NCAA Tournament data) to this NC State team averaged a total of 1.4 wins during the NCAA Tournament.

Given that NC State ranked 73rd nationally in BartTorvik’s efficiency rating through March 9, these results probably shouldn’t be too surprising.

The list does include one team who reached the Final Four: 2011 Virginia Commonwealth.

That VCU team went from the First Four to the Final Four and put then-head coach Shaka Smart on the map. Ironically, NC State’s run to this year’s Final Four included a triumph over Smart and Marquette in the Sweet 16.

Other double-digit seeds to make the Final Four

NC State’s run to the Final Four has been unique and unexpected, but the Wolfpack are far from the first double-digit seed to make it this far.

They are now 1 of 7 double-digit seeds to reach the Final Four in NCAA Tournament history. Six of the 7 were also No. 11 seeds, with 10th-seeded Syracuse in 2016 being the only exception.

Here’s the full list:

  • No. 11-seeded LSU in 1986
  • No. 11-seeded George Mason in 2006
  • No. 11-seeded VCU in 2011
  • No. 10-seeded Syracuse in 2016
  • No. 11-seeded Loyola Chicago in 2018
  • No. 11-seeded UCLA in 2021
  • No. 11-seeded NC State in 2024

Of these 7 teams, only NC State and Loyola Chicago made the NCAA Tournament via an automatic bid. That means NC State is the first-ever high-major to reach the Final Four as a double-digit seed while relying on an automatic bid to reach the Big Dance.

Most of the double-digit seeds who have reached the Final Four were simply just under-seeded by the selection committee for one reason or another. Four of the 7 teams listed above were ranked in KenPom’s top-30 at the end of their respective seasons. The lone exceptions are LSU (KenPom didn’t exist until 1997), VCU (53rd) and NC State (43rd)

The previous 6 double-digit seeds to accomplish this feat all have one thing in common: they lost in the semifinals. UCLA came the closest to advancing to the title game, but lost to Gonzaga 93-90 in overtime. No seed lower than a No. 8 has ever reach the national championship game.

Can NC State reverse that trend? The odds are not in its favor. According to the latest lines from ESPN BET, the Wolfpack are 8.5-point underdogs to Purdue on Saturday night.

The Boilermakers are led by 7-foot-4 phenom Zach Edey, who will be the most physically-imposing force that DJ Burns and NC State have faced all season. The Boilermakers also have a bevy of strong 3-point shooters (they rank 2nd nationally in 3-point percentage), so NC State will need to continue to have an elite perimeter defense if it hopes to pull off the upset.

Tipoff is at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday evening.