Drake Maye’s preseason Heisman Trophy odds have dropped somewhat during the offseason. But he remains 1 of the top handful of names mentioned as frontrunners on virtually everybody’s list for the award honoring the nation’s top college football player in 2023.

There are plenty of reasons for the buzz.

He burst onto the scene last season in his first year as a starter by completing 66% of his passes for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. He was named the ACC’s Player and Rookie of the Year while setting numerous school and conference records.

Beyond his statistics, Maye has the size, toughness, arm strength and bloodline that make him one of the most sought-after prospects in next spring’s NFL Draft. He could potentially even be the No. 1 overall pick.

No Tar Heel has ever won the Heisman. Charlie “Choo Choo” Justice came the closest by finishing 2nd in the voting in 1948 and ’49.

Maye is in a better position to end that drought than anyone in recent memory.

Here are 3 reasons he will. And 3 reasons he won’t. …

Why he will win the Heisman

Name recognition: It’s not impossible for a player to come out of nowhere and win the Heisman Trophy. Nobody was talking about Lamar Jackson at the start of the season he ended up taking home college football’s biggest prize in 2016.

But let’s face it. Voting for the Heisman is a subjective process. The human element is very much involved. So it’s a tremendous advantage to be known and mentioned prominently in the Heisman conversation right from the start of the season. Along with being hyped as a possible top overall NFL Draft pick.

That’s an advantage Maye will have after bursting into the national spotlight with his record-setting freshman season. While his 2022 success won’t have a direct affect on his chances at winning in 2023, it certainly can’t hurt.

Potential for a Heisman moment: Beyond the sheer numbers, there’s nothing that can boost a Heisman campaign faster or more effectively than a “moment” that creates a national buzz.

Think Jackson’s “Lamar Leap” against Syracuse, Desmond Howard’s punt return pose or Johnny Manziel’s “bobble touchdown” in an upset of Alabama.

It doesn’t always matter who the signature play comes against or when accomplishment happens.

But the more people that see it and tweet about it, the better. With a nationally televised season opener against South Carolina on Labor Day Saturday, a nonconference matchup against Big Ten opponent Minnesota a few weeks later and a late-season showdown with ACC rival Clemson, Maye will have several prime opportunities to create a “Heisman moment.”

Surrounded by playmakers: A quarterback can only do so much on his own. He needs a supporting cast capable of getting open, catching his passes, keeping opposing pass rushers off his back. It also helps to have a solid running game to provide some balance to his offense,

Maye should have all of those elements this season, thanks in large part to coach Mack Brown’s work on the transfer portal. 

Brown restocked a receiving corps that lost both Josh Downs and Antoine Green to the NFL with impact free agents Devontez Walker from Kent State and Nate McCollum from ACC rival Georgia Tech. The 2 have already developed a chemistry with Maye during a productive spring practice and project to be his top 2 targets.

UNC also beefed up the offensive line with the addition of Willie Lampkin from Coastal Carolina to go along with a deep, experienced running back room that should help the Tar Heels continue to put up big offensive numbers.

Why he won’t win the Heisman

Stiff competition: In order to win the award, Maye must outshine an array of high-profile candidates, including reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, who is back at Southern Cal for his junior season, at the top of the list.

Bo Nix, whose Oregon Ducks beat Maye’s Tar Heels in the Holiday Bowl last December, has also returned, along with Michael Penix Jr. of Washington and any number of SEC quarterbacks who will emerge over the course of the season. He’ll also face a challenge from his own conference with Florida State’s Jordan Travis gaining his share of preseason hype because of his team’s high expectations.

Nationally irrelevant team: It’s not necessarily a prerequisite for Heisman frontrunners to play for teams that contend for conference championships or spots in the College Football Playoff. But history tells us that most of the award’s winners play for teams ranked among the nation’s top 10. Twelve of the past 16, in fact, played on teams that finished in the top 5.

Jackson’s Louisville Cardinals, at No. 22 in 2016, are the lowest-ranked team to have a Heisman winner. You have to go all the way back to 1980 when George Rogers won on a South Carolina team that went 8-4 to find a Heisman winner who played on a team that went unranked.

So unless UNC pulls off a few surprises and finds a way to get back to the ACC Championship Game, Maye will need to put up some eye-catching numbers to even get to New York as a finalist, let alone take home the trophy.

New coordinator: Maye’s 2022 stats were impressive enough to put him into the conversation until a late drop-off took him out of contention. Putting up similar numbers this season might not be as easy. 

And it has nothing to do with the UNC star’s effectiveness.

Maye will be working with a new offensive coordinator with the arrival of Chip Lindsey from Central Florida. Unlike his predecessor Phil Longo, who ran a pass-friendly Air Raid style attack during his 4 seasons in Chapel Hill, Lindsey is a proponent of a more balanced offensive philosophy.

With more of an emphasis on running the ball and less volume in the passing game, there is a possibility Maye’s numbers will drop – giving detractors or those who look only at the numbers rather than game action fodder for questioning his viability as a Heisman contender.