Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues today with NC State. Next up, we’ll preview Notre Dame.

Previously: Boston College | Clemson | Duke | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | UNC

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Last year was supposed to be the year that it all came together for NC State.

Then it didn’t.

Even with an elite defense, the ACC Player of the Year at quarterback and perennial Atlantic Division nemesis Clemson looking vulnerable, the Wolfpack finished 8-5 after a bid to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

It wasn’t bad. But it wasn’t even close to the preseason projections.

That shouldn’t have surprised anyone who has followed State for any length of time. It’s common knowledge that the Wolfpack usually accomplish the least when they’re expected to do the most.

And vice versa.

Which is why it would be a mistake to overlook coach Dave Doeren’s team in 2023.

It’s not as if the expectations have cratered. State was picked to finish 4th in the ACC’s preseason poll, behind only the dynamic duo of Clemson and Florida State, and rival North Carolina.

But compared to last year, when the Pack were ranked No. 13 in the preseason and considered a legitimate contender for their first conference championship 1979, their expectations are much more modest this time around.

Given their history, that could turn out to be a blessing.

Not that 6th-year linebacker Payton Wilson or his teammates are putting much stock in the infamous Law of the Wolf theory.

“Last year was different,” said Wilson, who bounced back from 2 injury-plagued seasons to play in 11 of 12 games as part of the ACC’s best defense last year. “We did have a lot of hype or buzz going into the season. But I think that coach Doeren and those guys do a great job of letting it be known that none of that matters. 

“You have to win the games for any of this to happen. For any of that hype to become real. We just haven’t done that yet.”

Injuries are a big reason it didn’t happen last year. The most damaging came just before the halfway mark when star quarterback Devin Leary went down with a season-ending shoulder injury.

State was able to get by the rest of the way on a defense that allowed only 19 points per game.

With much of that unit back, the arrival of hired gun Brennan Armstrong to fill the void left by Leary’s transfer to Kentucky and history working in their favor, this Pack of Wolves has all the elements needed to overachieve in 2023.

Especially the element of surprise.

Armstrong and Anae, together again

They didn’t exactly come as a package deal. But it’s no accident that transfer quarterback Armstrong is back together with his former offensive coordinator at Virginia, Robert Anae.

The most prolific left-handed passer in ACC history chose State for his final year of college eligibility specifically to be reunited with Anae, his mentor and play-caller for the first 4 seasons of his ACC career.

“I think he has a good idea of how I play, kind of my thoughts,” Armstrong said. “I have a good idea how he thinks. He just allows me to play free and lets me go out there, play the game and have fun.”

They had a lot of fun together in 2021, their most recent season together. Armstrong led the ACC with 4,449 passing yards to go with 35 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions.

But things didn’t go nearly as well after UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall stepped down and Anae left for Syracuse last season.

Armstrong threw for only 2,210 yards with 7 touchdowns and 12 picks for new coach Tony Elliott and coordinator Des Kitchings in an offense that clearly didn’t fit him. Anae was subsequently hired by Doeren after his OC, Tim Beck, left to take the head coaching job at Coastal Carolina.

That gave Armstrong the opening he needed to cure last year’s struggles and keep alive his hopes of playing at the next level.

“I don’t know if you’ve looked at 2022, but I’m not going to the NFL like that,” he said. “I’ve got to get back on track.”

Armstrong isn’t the only one benefitting from his reunion with his old OC. Because he’s the only 1 in the Wolfpack’s program who’s actually played in Anae’s scheme, he became a valuable resource this spring in helping speed the process of installing the new offense.

“I like how he just came in, put his head down and went to work,” Doeren said of his new quarterback. “He proved himself and his competitive spirit … how hard he competed in spring ball. You would see him coaching guys. The way he goes about his business is where the respect for me is.”

Covering his corner

Aydan White was ranked No. 5 on Pro Football Focus’ list of the highest-rated returning cornerbacks in the ACC this summer.

With all due respect to the 4 players ranked ahead of him – Florida State’s Fentrell Cypress, North Carolina’s Alijah Huzzie, Virginia Tech’s Mansoor Delane and Pittsburgh’s Marquis Williams – and every other cover corner in college football – White has a different opinion.

“I definitely feel like I’m the best in the country at this point,” he said during the preseason ACC Kickoff media event in Charlotte. “I’m just ready to show you all and prove it this season.”

The 6-foot, 189-pound junior has already done his share of proving. His 482 coverage snaps last season were the most in the nation without allowing a touchdown. 

And he didn’t just shut down opposing receivers. He also ranked 2nd in the ACC with 4 interceptions, including an 84-yard pick-6 against Charleston Southern while teaming with Shyheim Battle to form one of the most formidable cornerback duos in the league.

His play was recognized with a first-team All-ACC selection last year while earning him mention on the watch list for the Jim Thorpe Award heading into this year. White is the first State player to make the list since David Amerson finished as a runner-up for the award honoring the nation’s top defensive back in 2012.

While the attention is nice, White isn’t buying into any added hype.

In fact, it has inspired him to work even harder than ever. 

“I’ve just been watching film on myself a lot recently, looking at my weaknesses and trying to make those my strengths,” he said. “Especially with our discipline, press man, and being more physical in the run game.” 

“I don’t want to say the expectations have changed because the coaching staff already knows what I can do. I just hope to replicate what I did last season.”

Still Payton’s place

Wilson has been at NC State so long, several of his current teammates were still in middle school when he became a member of the Wolfpack 6 years ago.

“It’s about time for me to get on, ain’t it,” he joked when reminded of how long he’s been a college football player.

He actually had an opportunity to do that after last season by joining fellow star linebackers Drake Thomas and Isaiah Moore in trying their hand at the NFL. But after missing the better part of 2 full seasons because of injuries, he felt as though he still had something more to give to his alma mater before moving on.

“One of the main things is the goals I’ve set for myself personally, as well as the team when I got here in 2018,” the 6-4, 242-pound linebacker said of his decision to return for his final season of eligibility. “We’ve been so close for so long. I just want to reach those goals. Also to have 2 healthy years put together will help put me in the best situation to get to the next level.”

When healthy, there aren’t many in the ACC who can match Wilson’s aggressiveness and tackling ability.

The problem has been staying healthy.

He redshirted his freshman year at State while rehabbing a knee injury suffered as a senior in high school. Then after leading the conference with 108 tackles and earning first-team All-ACC honors during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury that cost him all but 2 games of 2021.

Wilson returned last year to play in 11 of State’s 13 games. But he did so with a different approach.

“You’ve seen me play. It’s hair on fire all the time,” he said. “Growing up the way I did, it was like if something hurts just get over it. Over these last few years I’ve understood the importance of nutrition, of prehab and rehab and almost falling in love with that stuff more than working out just to stay healthy. It’s just figuring out what it takes to play all 12 games.”

With Thomas and Moore gone, Wilson is ready to embrace his role as the Wolfpack’s elder statesman and become more of a vocal leader than he has been in the past.

“Something has to step up in that role,” he said. “So I’m stepping out of my comfort zone and trying to lead this defense to the very end.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at UConn (W)

This is a tricky opener for the Wolfpack. The Huskies are vastly improved from the team that went 1-11 in 2021 and lost 41-10 to State in Raleigh last year. And it’s on the road. But here’s where Armstrong’s familiarity with Anae’s offense will pay an immediate dividend. His experience will help the Wolfpack avoid the usual growing pains and allow them to return home 1-0.

Week 2: vs. Notre Dame (L)

Believe it or not, the Wolfpack has a winning record all-time against the Irish. They are 2-1, including the most recent game at Carter-Finley Stadium. State won that game 10-3 in 2016 in a quagmire created by Hurricane Matthew. Unless Mother Nature gifts State with another natural disaster, the forecast for a similar State victory is cloudy at best.

Week 3: vs. VMI (W)

The Keydets are the perfect opponent after 2 challenging games to start the season and a short week coming up.

Week 4: vs. Virginia (W)

It’s homecoming night in Charlottesville. Not for everyone, mind you. Just for Armstrong, who returns to his previous school and reminds Cavaliers fans how explosive he and his offense can be when reunited with Anae.

Week 5: vs. Louisville (W)

For the 2nd week in a row, the Wolfpack will play on a Friday night. This time at home. There’s nothing like the electricity generated at Carter-Finley for a nationally televised weeknight game. It can be both intimidating to the opponent and energizing to State’s players. Lamar Jackson found that out the hard way in 2019. This new group of Cardinals is about to learn the same lesson.

Week 6: vs. Marshall (W)

The Thundering Herd are no pushover. They beat Notre Dame and went 9-4 last season. But they don’t match up well against the Wolfpack. Marshall was 7-0 in 2022 when it rushed for more than 200 yards. State ranked 2nd in the ACC in rushing defense, allowing just 100.7 yards per game. Don’t turn the ball over and this one shouldn’t be close.

Week 7: at Duke (L)

The Blue Devils will be coming off an open date and at home. This one shapes up as a classic matchup between one of the ACC’s best offenses against one of the league’s best defenses. The Blue Devils have more proven playmakers surrounding their dual-threat quarterback, Riley Leonard, than Armstrong will have around him.

Week 8: Open

Week 9: vs. Clemson (W)

For a change, the schedule works out favorably for the Wolfpack. They’ll have a week off to rest up, heal up and prepare for their Textile Bowl date with the Tigers. They’re catching Clemson in a trap game the week before facing Notre Dame. And it’s at Carter-Finley. State snapped a long losing streak to Clemson the last time Dabo Swinney brought his team to Raleigh. Doeren has the defense to rattle young Cade Klubnik and pull off the upset again.

Week 10: vs. Miami (L)

A postulate to the Law of the Wolf says that when NC State wins a game it has no business winning, it turns right around and loses a game it has no business losing. Here you go, Hurricanes.

Week 11: at Wake Forest (L)

Superman had his Kryptonite. The Wolfpack have Winston-Salem. They’ve only won once in their past 10 visits to the venue now known as Allegacy Stadium, with the only victory coming in 2015. By contrast, State has won 7 of the past 8 played in Raleigh. There’s no rhyme or reason for the pattern. But it’s real. And it will continue again this year.

Week 12: at Virginia Tech (W)

State has never played well in Blacksburg. But this Hokies team isn’t very good and Armstrong has averaged 329 yards with 3 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing scores in 2 career starts against Tech.

Week 13: vs. North Carolina (W)

Blue collar, hand-in-the-dirt Doeren has Mack Brown’s number. His team has found dramatic ways to beat its rival in each of the past 2 meetings. It’s only a matter of how the Wolfpack will break the Tar Heels’ heart again this time.

2023 projection: 8-4 (5-3)

#StrengthInThePack

Doeren got his wish when the ACC did away with its divisional format this season. But in a cruel twist of fate, the league gifted the Wolfpack with Clemson as 1 of its 3 permanent partners as part of its 3-5-5 scheduling model.

That means State will continue to have to play its former Atlantic Division nemesis on an annual basis.’

The good news for this year’s team is that the Tigers will be coming to Carter-Finley, the site of State’s only series win of the Doeren era. The Wolfpack will also play its 2 other toughest games – against Notre Dame and rival North Carolina – at home.

The Wolfpack have been remarkably consistent over the past decade, with 9 winning seasons and 8 or more wins in 5 of the past 6. With 72 victories since coming to State in 2013, Doeren is 6 away from surpassing Earle Edwards and becoming the winningest coach in school history.

“We’ve finished 2nd in the league a couple of times records-wise. Second in the league for league wins 3 years now combined and I think it’s 3rd over the 10 years that I’ve been here for league wins,” Doeren said. “So we’ve had a lot of success.”

So far though, there’s 1 thing that has eluded him and his program. It’s a goal Wolfpack coaches have been chasing for 44 years now.

“How do you get over the top? That’s a great question,” Doeren said. “I say this to the team. It’s 1 more play sometimes or 1 more player sometimes or 1 more play call. It’s a very little thing that takes place. Sometimes you have to have some luck too. 

“Staying healthy is a big thing in college football. If you look at the teams that make it to the end, that’s a factor. There’s a lot of pieces in it, and I’ve been fortunate to win championships at several of the schools I’ve been at. Those things come together at the right time.”

Could this finally be the right time for the Wolfpack?