Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues today with Notre Dame. Next up, we’ll preview Pittsburgh.

Previously: Boston College | Clemson | Duke | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | UNC | NC State

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Marcus Freeman was a popular choice when he was named Notre Dame’s new coach less than a week after Brian Kelly left for LSU in December 2021.

His players were so excited about his hiring that they formed a celebratory mosh pit to greet him in their locker room upon the news becoming official.

Despite his lack of head coaching experience, the 36-year-old defensive coordinator was considered a rising star in his profession who was adequately prepared for the job.

But as Freeman quickly learned, no amount of grooming can possibly replicate the challenges and pressure involved with inheriting the legacy of Knute Rockne, Ara Parseghian, Lou Holtz, Kelly and others, and coaching under the Golden Dome. Kelly, after all, left as ND’s all-time winningest coach and twice had the Irish in position to win a national title.

The hard knocks Freeman took, especially after a stunning home loss to Marshall last September that dropped him to 0-2 in his debut season, have only made him more confident and better prepared for what’s to come heading into the new season.

“As you go into Year 2, now you have the experience,” he recently told ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt. “I don’t have every experience that maybe some of the people I’m going to face have gone through. But that 1 year has been so valuable for myself to lead this program.”

The Irish rallied from their slow start and an injury to starting quarterback Tyler Buchner to win 8 out of their final 10 games and 6 of the last 7, including a victory against South Carolina in the Gator Bowl.

Freeman then built on the momentum by making one of the biggest offseason splashes on the transfer portal by landing highly sought-after quarterback Sam Hartman, the ACC’s all-time leader in touchdown passes.

The addition of the former Wake Forest star, along with one of the nation’s best offensive lines and punishing running back Audric Estimé, should help offset the loss of offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to Alabama.  

Things aren’t nearly as settled on the other side of the ball, where the Irish will have to replace Isaiah Foskey and his school-record 26.5 career sacks, and both safeties while looking to improve a red-zone defense that ranked 130th out of 131 FBS teams by allowing 32 scores on 34 possessions.

Will the additions and the experience Freeman gained be enough to shake down the thunder and get Notre Dame back into the College Football Playoff for the first time since its COVID cameo in the ACC in 2020?

Let’s dive in and take a closer look.

Hartman’s big move

Sam Hartman went from one extreme on the college football spectrum to the other when he transferred from Wake Forest to Notre Dame this offseason.

Not in the caliber of play, mind you. The Deacons have been to bowl games in each of the past 7 seasons, including the 4 in which Hartman was the starting quarterback. It’s more about the stage on which he’s playing.

Wake Forest is the nation’s smallest FBS school with an enrollment of around 9,000 and a stadium capacity of 31,500. Notre Dame has a stadium that seats 77,600 fans and has millions of subway alumni all around the world.  

And that’s to say nothing about the aura of playing for the most storied brand name in the history of the sport. His move is the football equivalent of being traded from the Kansas City Royals to the New York Yankees.

“It’s been surreal,” Hartman said in a televised interview in July. “Hearing your name side-by-side with one of the most historic programs in the country is very cool but also humbling.

“You know the expectations when it comes to being a Notre Dame football player and also being a Notre Dame quarterback. A lot of excitement, a lot of nerves.”

Hartman’s 110 career touchdown passes are an ACC career record while his 12,967 passing yards rank 2nd in conference history. He holds Wake Forest career records for completions, attempts, touchdowns and total yards while ranking among the ACC’s top 3 in each category.

He is a major upgrade from last year’s Irish quarterback duo of  Buchner and Drew Pyne, both of whom have transferred.

While Freeman is counting on Hartman’s talent and experience to be the springboard to a special season for his team, the veteran quarterback is hoping the added exposure he gets – in a traditional offense rather than the Deacons’ gimmicky slow-mesh RPO attack – will increase his chances of getting to the NFL next year.

It’s better to receive

No matter how accomplished he might be, a quarterback is only as good as the receivers he’s passing to.

That’s something to keep an eye on as the season gets underway. Because while Hartman has the talent and credentials to be mentioned as a possible Heisman Trophy contender, his receiving corps at Notre Dame will be significantly less experienced – and less productive – than the group he left behind at Wake Forest.

The Irish’s top receiver in 2022 was tight end Michael Mayer, the 2nd-round draft pick of the Las Vegas Raiders. The team’s wide receivers combined for only 94 catches, 1,305 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s the school’s lowest output since 2007. 

By contrast, AT Perry had 70 receptions for 1,096 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Deacons all by himself in 2022.

With Virginia Tech transfer Kaleb Smith having retired from football for medical reasons and Lorenzo Styles having transferred to Ohio State, where he’s now a defensive back, the Irish’s top returning pass-catcher is redshirt sophomore Jayden Thomas with 25 catches for 362 yards and 3 touchdowns.

That doesn’t mean there’s a shortage of talent. According to Freeman, the lack of wide receiver production last year was a symptom of having 1 of the nation’s best tight ends in the lineup.

“In our offense, a lot was predicated on ‘Hey, if (Michael) Mayer’s 1-on-1, throw it to him,’” Freeman told SI.com. “That was tough for our wideouts. That’s a tough position, because you can do everything right and get no reward for it.”

With Mayer gone, young receivers such as Deion Colzie and Tobias Merriweather will get much more of an opportunity to show what they can do. Merriweather, in particular, is an intriguing prospect. He’s 6-4, 205 and was the nation’s No. 14 WR recruit in 2022. The sophomore’s 1 career catch, against Stanford last November, went for a 41-yard touchdown.

Freshmen Rico Flores, Jaden Greathouse, Braylon James and KK Smith will also have a shot at contributing right away.

Seeing red inside the 20

Other than replenishing a pass rush that lost a combined 35.5 career sacks, 44.5 tackles for losses and 8 forced fumbles with the departures of Foskey and fellow end Justin Ademilola, the top priority for Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden is shoring up a red-zone defense that ranked next-to-last nationally a year ago.

The Irish gave up points on 94% of their opponents’ trips inside the 20, including 27 touchdowns in 34 opportunities. 

It was a surprising performance made all the more frustrating by the fact that they surrendered only 18 touchdowns on 47 red-zone possessions the previous year with Freeman as defensive coordinator. And that their overall percentage of 78.7 ranked among the top 40 nationally.

Rather than making any major structural changes, Golden said that the key to fixing the red-zone problem is paying closer attention to small details. Specifically, making sure that everyone on the field is on the same page with the coaches in the press box.

“There’s definitely a renewed emphasis starting with me,” Golden said. “I have to do a better job calling it down there. We took some things out and put some things in. … I think we’re very good at not letting guys in the red. So we could stay there and then and then improve this, it’s really going to help us a lot.”

To Golden’s point, his defense allowed an average of only 2.6 red-zone opportunities per game – a figure that ranked 12th among FBS teams.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 0: vs. Navy at Dublin, Ireland (W)

It doesn’t matter that Notre Dame has won 10 of the past 11 from the Midshipmen. Or that Navy will be making its debut under 1st-year coach Brian Newberry. The Irish will be playing in Ireland. And wearing green. It won’t be close.

Week 1: vs. Tennessee State (W)

Notre Dame playing an FCS opponent? Yep. It’s really happening. And a good thing, too. After the long trip back to the U.S. the Irish need an opponent like the Tigers to help them recover from their jet lag. This would be a rout even if Tennessee State coach Eddie George suited up and played.

Week 2: at NC State (W)

The first real test for the Irish. NC State is no joke at home, where it has won 16 of their past 17 games. Hartman can attest to that. He lost both his starts at Carter-Finley Stadium while with Wake Forest and has thrown 6 interceptions in 3 career games against the Wolfpack. State also beat the Irish the only other time they played in Raleigh in 2016. That game was played during the worst conditions of Hurricane Matthew. Unless Mother Nature strikes again, Notre Dame should be able to squeak by.

Week 3: vs. Central Michigan (W)

Either it’s getting tougher and tougher to fill out an independent schedule these days or the Irish intentionally scheduled another breather ahead of next week’s clash with Ohio State. Probably a little of both.

Week 4: vs. Ohio State (L)

The Irish played pretty well against the Buckeyes in Columbus last year before squandering a halftime lead in a 21-10 loss. Even though this one is in South Bend, it feels like more of the same. Only with a higher score. Notre Dame will have the edge at quarterback. But Ohio State will take advantage of a suspect Irish defense.

Week 5: at Duke (W)

Skip the basketball jokes. The Blue Devils won 9 games and have a talented dual-threat quarterback in Riley Leonard surrounded by veteran playmakers. This will be a lot closer than anyone expects.

Week 6: at Louisville (W)

The Irish have won 28 straight regular-season games against ACC teams dating to 2017. Remind me again why the Irish don’t want to be a full-time member of a conference they can win every year?

Week 7: vs. Southern Cal (L) 

Caleb Williams clinched the Heisman Trophy by rushing for 3 touchdowns and throwing for another in last year’s win in LA. This time he kick starts his campaign to join Archie Griffin as a 2-time winner with another big performance in South Bend.

Week 8: Open

Week 9: vs. Pittsburgh (W)

Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers are just the kind of physical, grind-it-out team that can give Notre Dame trouble. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Pitt quarterback Phil Jurkovec started his college career with the Irish before transferring to Boston College. 

Week 10: at Clemson (L)

The Irish put together their most complete, dominant performance of the season in beating Clemson last season. The Tigers have an elite defense and should be vastly improved on offense thanks to the arrival of Garrett Riley to mentor quarterback Cade Klubnik. Clemson is also at home, where it’s lost only 1 time since 2016. Revenge game.

Week 11: Open

Week 12: vs. Wake Forest (W)

The Sam Hartman homecoming game. The grad transfer quarterback gets a shot at playing his old team. But beyond his passing ability, his most important contribution might be helping the coaches prepare a  plan to stop the Deacons’ confounding slow-mesh RPO offense.

Week 13: at Stanford (W)

The Cardinal’s last game as a member of the lame duck Pac-12 and potentially their last as a Power 5 program. Unless they get absorbed by the ACC. Either way, the Irish show no mercy.

2023 projection: 9-3

#GoIrish

Notre Dame failed to win at least 10 games for the 1st time since 2016 last year, a result that can be chalked up to rookie coach Marcus Freeman’s admitted on-the-job training and an injury that sidelined its starting quarterback for most of the season.

The experience Freeman gained through some early struggles and subsequent strong finish should help him be better prepared to manage his team in 2023.

But there are still challenges to overcome.

The addition of graduate transfer quarterback Hartman will be a major step toward helping the Irish’s offense become more balanced. But the passing game will only be as good as a young group of unproven receivers allow it to be.

And while the linebacking corps returns all 3 starters in Marist Liufau, Jack Kiser and JD Bertrand and a secondary led by Freshman All-American Benjamin Morris is solid, Freeman and Golden will have to find replacements for both disruptive edge rushers.

This is Notre Dame, so the talent to rebound and get back into double-digit victories and perhaps even sneak into the College Football Playoff is there. But because there are so many moving parts involved with this team, it’s just as likely that it falls short of those goals again.