Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues today with Pittsburgh. Next up, we’ll preview Syracuse.

Previously: Boston College | Clemson | Duke | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | UNC | Notre Dame

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Pittsburgh, Miami, Syracuse and Boston College were brought into the ACC during the first major round of conference realignment essentially to strengthen the league’s football product.

Two decades later, only the Panthers have consistently held up their end of the bargain.

They’ve been especially good since Pat Narduzzi took over as their coach in 2015. 

Not only are their 41 conference victories the 2nd-most behind only perennial champion Clemson during that stretch, but they’re also the only former Coastal Division team since 2010 to win an ACC title.

And yet, Pitt never seems to get mentioned among the league’s top teams at the start of a season.

Maybe it’s because of their old-school physical style of play. Or maybe it’s because they’re so far removed geographically from the league’s traditional base that they can easily become out of sight and out of mind.

Whatever it is, the pattern continues this year. Pitt was picked to finish in a tie for 6th in the preseason poll taken at the ACC’s preseason media event in Charlotte.

“We’ve never been picked to be 1st,” Narduzzi said. “It’s the same thing as last year. Same as the year before. So I guess we’re just right where they always put us.”

He’s not kidding.

His Panthers were picked to finish 4th in the Coastal last year. They exceeded those expectations by rallying from a rocky start to win 9 games and finish 2nd in the ACC’s final season of divisional play.

This year’s modest projections are at least somewhat understandable after losing key contributors on both sides of the ball, including conference Defensive Player of the Year Calijah Kancey and rushing leader Izzy Abanikanda.

But the remaining cupboard is anything but bare, especially on defense and one of the ACC’s best offensive lines.

And with the addition of transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec from league rival Boston College, the Panthers have the kind of offensive trigger man they lacked a year ago. 

It’s a combination that sets up Pitt to surprise again. At least, for everyone other than the always outspoken Narduzzi.

“There’s some other really good programs out there,” the 9th-year coach told the Associated Press last week. “Whether you beat them or not, (they say) ‘We’re going to be better this year. We were bad last year, but we’re going to be better this year.’ They all have excuses of why they didn’t win. We just keep plugging away.”

Let’s plug along with them.

If at first you don’t succeed

It’s taken 6 years and 2 failed attempts, but Narduzzi has finally got his man when he convinced Jurkovec to return to his hometown for his final season of college eligibility.

A 4-star recruit out of Pittsburgh’s Pine-Richland High School, Jurkovec signed with Notre Dame in 2018. He then transferred to Boston College after 2 seasons as a seldom-used backup for the Irish.

Jurkovec enjoyed some success with the Eagles, throwing for 5,183 yards and 35 touchdowns on 59% passing over 3 injury-plagued seasons. 

But after a 3-9 season in 2022, with a bachelor’s degree in economics already to his credit, he decided to seek another fresh start. One that will give him a better chance at winning and enhancing his NFL Draft chances.

This time familiarity won out. And Narduzzi’s persistence paid off.

“We worked hard at getting him the first time. And we didn’t get him the second time when he went to BC,” the Pitt coach said. “We wanted him bad. But we had a guy named Kenny Pickett. I couldn’t guarantee him being the starter with Kenny Pickett being there. Then we got lucky and we will get his last and his best season he has ever had.”

Narduzzi is hoping that Jurkovec is able to give the Panthers the kind of passing performance it got from NFL Draft pick Pickett but lacked last season with his first transfer replacement Kedon Slovis.

The fact that Jurkovec will be reunited Frank Cignetti Jr., with his former offensive coordinator at BC, is also a plus.

“It’s really an amazing opportunity looking at it,” he said. “It’s shocking how it’s been able to work out. I’m so grateful to everybody, Coach Narduzzi, all the coaches for giving me the opportunity to represent Pittsburgh.”

It’s an opportunity that comes with more than its share of pressure.

Jurkovec understands that. But he also knows that he’ll be surrounded by plenty of talent capable of helping him deliver the goods.

“I think that’s the nature of the game. You need the quarterback to play well to win games,” he said. “What I bring to the table is experience. I think I have the pieces to win, but more importantly, I have the teammates.

“We have such a good culture. The defense is so strong and tough. Then the offense, we’ve got weapons everywhere. The offensive line is very experienced. As long as I get the ball to our playmakers, we’re going to be set.”

Upholding a tradition

Defense isn’t just a foundation upon which Pitt’s football success has been built, especially during the Narduzzi era. It’s a tradition players take great pride in upholding.

And not because there’s pressure to follow in the footsteps of newly minted Hall of Famer Darrelle Revis or any number of other NFL Draft picks – including ACC Defensive Players of the Year Kancey and Aaron Donald, a future Hall of Famer.

“We never look at it as pressure,” senior cornerback MJ Devonshire said. “Where I’m from, there’s always pressure. It’s just how you look at it. Pressure can burst pipes or it can make a diamond. I’d rather be a diamond.

“So I look at it as taking pride in the fact that I get to be in Coach Dooz’s defense. That’s a special thing. A lot of people don’t get to be a part of it. You just have to make the most of your opportunities so they’ll keep you on that defense.”

With only 5 returning starters, a whole new group of players will get their shot at becoming part of the Panthers’ defensive tradition.

It would be easy to assume that Pitt will take a step back this season without Kancey, fellow linemen Habakkuk Baldonado and Deslin Alexandre, along with top linebacker SirVocea Dennis – core members of a unit that finished 2nd in the nation with 48 sacks in 2022.

But that isn’t likely to happen. Not with one of the most respected defensive minds in the college game running the show. Finding ways to compensate for the loss of those stars up front should be right in Narduzzi’s wheelhouse.

And he’ll have no shortage of candidates from which to choose. 

The deep talent pool of ends includes veteran backups Dayon Hayes and Bam Brima, and former 4-star recruit Nahki Johnson. There’s even more options at tackle with seniors Devin Danielson, David Green and Tyler Bentley all having seen significant playing time in the past. Up-and-coming sophomore Elliott Donald, Aaron Donald’s cousin, will all be in the mix.

“Everybody wants to compete,” Devonshire said. “No one wants to be part of a fallout, so you’ve just got to keep getting better.

Pinstripe Panthers

The Panthers share a home stadium with the NFL’s Pittsburgh Steelers. So they’re used to playing on a big stage. But on Nov. 11, they’ll take the field at an even grander venue, one that’s the home of another iconic professional sports franchise.

Their game against Syracuse at Yankee Stadium was scheduled to honor the 100th anniversary of the first football game ever played at the historic ballpark in the Bronx. Even though they’ll be playing at the replacement stadium that opened in 2009, not the original House that Ruth Built, Pitt’s players are looking forward to the opportunity.

“I have been a Yankees fan as far as I can remember, my dad bringing me to Yankee Stadium when I was younger and seeing Derek Jeter, A-Rod and all those guys,” said offensive lineman Matt Goncalves, a native of Long Island. “I’m very excited to step on the field and just take in the moment. My family, my friends are all going to be there and I cannot wait.”

Narduzzi is just as excited. His memories of the ballpark just aren’t as fond as those of his star left tackle.

The last time he brought a team there, it suffered a 31-24 loss to Northwestern in the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl.

“You always kind of think about Yankee Stadium and the prestige of going into that facility in New York,” he said. “It will be a fun game. As a coach, I always look back to, ‘hey, what happened last time I was there?’ We’ll make sure that doesn’t happen.”

However it turns out, there’s a good chance the game will be more compelling than the one to which Pitt and Syracuse are paying tribute. The Panthers lost that defensive struggle 3-0.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Wofford (W)

This opener is as close to an exhibition game as there is in college football and a great opportunity for Jurkovec to settle into his new surroundings. The Terriers went 3-8 last season and got blown out by a bad Virginia Tech team. 

Week 2: vs. Cincinnati (W)

Bearcats coach Scott Satterfield split a pair of games against Pitt during his tenure at Louisville, including a 24-10 win last year in a game that saw the Cardinals score 17 points in the 4th quarter. The Panthers contributed to their demise by committing 4 turnovers. As long as they don’t play giveaway again, they’ll get the better of Satterfield this time.

Week 3: at West Virginia (W)

The Panthers won last year’s Backyard Brawl in dramatic fashion on a late pick-6 by Devonshire. If this one is close, it’s only because of the rivalry. The Mountaineers return only 10 starters (5 on each side of the ball) from a 5-team that ranked 9th in the Big 12 in scoring defense in 2022.

Week 4: vs. North Carolina (W)

This game will be overshadowed by the showdown between Clemson and Florida State on the same day. But it could turn out to be just as important. The winner between the Panthers and Tar Heels will be the most likely team to sneak into the ACC Championship Game if either of the two favorites falter. UNC has the edge at quarterback. Pitt has the better defense, championship experience and is at home – where it’s beaten the Tar Heels the past 2 times they’ve visited.

 Week 5: at Virginia Tech (W)

You know Sun Bowl MVP Rodney Hammond Jr. has this game circled. His former running mate Abanikanda broke Tony Dorsett’s school record by rushing for 320 yards and scoring 6 touchdowns against the Hokies in Pittsburgh last year. No matter how much Tech’s defense has improved, there promises to be plenty of room for Hammond to run in Blacksburg.

Week 6: Open

Week 7: Louisville (W)

Same concept as the Cincinnati game. Satterfield has been replaced by Jeff Brohm, but the Panthers are the better team. And they’ll have an extra week to prepare. As long as they don’t turn it over, they should win this one handily.

Week 8: at Wake Forest (W)

Only 1 of the Deacons’ 8 wins last season came when they were an underdog. Pitt will be favored in this one. Advantage, Panthers.

Week 9: at Notre Dame (L)

Reality check time. The Panthers are physical, run the ball and play stout defense. So does Notre Dame. The Irish just do all that better. Especially in South Bend with a better transfer QB, Sam Hartman.

Week 10: vs. Florida State (L)

Reality check, Part Deaux. Pitt’s hopes of getting to the ACC title game take a major hit when Jordan Travis, Trey Benson and Johnny Wilson come rolling into town and show it what a championship-caliber team really looks like.

Week 11: vs. Syracuse at Yankee Stadium (W)

It hasn’t been a good year for New York-based teams at Yankee Stadium. The Panthers need a win to stop the bleeding and a 2-game losing streak, and they hit a home run against the Orange. 

Week 12: vs. Boston College (W)

The Phil Jurkovec redemption game. It’s not as if the transfer quarterback left BC on bad terms. Still, it’s got to be satisfying to lead your new team to a victory against your former team. In your hometown, no less.

Week 13: at Duke (L)

The Panthers have had the Blue Devils’ number since joining the ACC. They’ve won the past 7 meetings between the former Coastal Division rivals and 8-of-9 dating to 2013. But 2 of the past 3 have been decided by a field goal or less. Duke is due, especially with an opportunity to send a transformational senior class out on a high note.

2023 projection: 9-3 (6-2)

#H2P

The idea that all teams take on the personality of their coaches has become somewhat clichè. But in the case of Narduzzi’s Panthers, it’s as perfect a fit as those body-contoured uniforms the players are wearing these days.

Old-school, physical, smash-mouth and aggressive are all descriptions that apply.

And not just on their trademark defense.

“We’re from a tough city,” Narduzzi said. “We embrace that toughness. That’s who I am. We’ve got a bunch of tough dudes here. We’re going to be tough in all 3 phases of our game.

“To me, it’s what you coach every day. Our guys practice hard. They play hard. They work hard every day. It’s just part of our DNA.”

That toughness, combined with a lot of skill, has produced a sustained success that has lifted Pitt into the top tier of ACC programs. Even if few have recognized it.

It’s a pattern that despite the loss of key contributors on both sides of the ball shows no sign of changing anytime soon.