Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series continues today with Virginia. Next up, we’ll preview Virginia Tech.

Previously: Boston College | Clemson | Duke | Florida State | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | UNC | NC State | Notre Dame | Pittsburgh | Syracuse

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Coaches in general and football coaches in particular have an obsession about being prepared for every possibility.

Controlling the controllables, they call it.

But how do you prepare for the unthinkable, a situation so unexpected and traumatic that it never comes to mind until it actually happens?

There was no playbook to help Virginia coach Tony Elliott deal with the tragedy that took the lives of wide receivers Lavel Davis Jr., and Devin Chandler, and linebacker D’Sean Perry and brought a premature end to the Cavaliers’ season last November.

Even now, Elliott and his staff are still in uncharted territory as they turn their attention back to football and return to the job of actual coaching.

“This situation is unprecedented,” the 2nd-year coach said. “There’s no preparation. Even though I experienced tragedy as a young person and throughout the course of my life, it still doesn’t prepare you for a situation like this.

“But these guys have accepted the challenge. They understand that they have a responsibility to Lavel, Devin, and D’Sean to move forward in the right way. Unfortunately for us, it’s our new normal.”

Beyond the psychological aspects of UVa’s preseason preparations is the second phase of a major rebuild on the field. 

The Cavaliers suffered through a dreadful Year 1 with their new staff by finishing 3-7, including just 1-6 in the ACC.

There’s hope that significant personnel changes on offense will help improve a unit that finished last in the league at only 17 points per game. But it’s more likely that the team again will be forced to rely on a defense — anchored by All-ACC end Chico Bennett, tackle Aaron Faumui and safety Antonio Clary — that ranked 7th in the league and kept UVa in a lot of games.

Either way, there’s still plenty of work left to do.

Loaded Muskett

Based on their credentials, it would be easy to dismiss Tony Muskett as a downgrade from Brennan Armstrong as an ACC-caliber quarterback.

Armstrong is the most prolific left-handed passer in conference history with 9,034 yards. His 4,449 passing yards, to go along with 31 touchdowns, led the league in 2021. But he turned out to be the proverbial round peg trying to fit into the square hole in the new offensive system brought in by Elliott and his offensive coordinator Des Kitchings.

So it was no surprise that Armstrong left for NC State, where he has been reunited with his former UVA mentor and play caller Robert Anae. The unexpected half of the equation came with Elliott’s choice as his replacement quarterback.

Muskett isn’t the most heralded transfer coming into the ACC this year. But he does have a proven track record with some impressive numbers – albeit at the FCS level – during his 3 seasons as a starter at Monmouth.

A 2-time All-Colonial Athletic Association selection, he threw for 5,687 yards and 51 touchdowns while completing 62% of his passes. His compatibility with Elliott’s offensive scheme will be key to whatever offensive improvement the Cavaliers might make after finishing last in the ACC at just 17 points per game in 2022.

“The thing about Tony Muskett is from Day 1, you saw his confidence,” Elliott said. “It’s not cockiness, it’s not arrogance. It’s confidence. It quickly galvanized the guys. He is a team-first guy. He is always going to promote his team and he just has that ‘it’ factor.

“It’s hard to describe. When you talk about quarterbacks, you can’t coach it. But you know it when you see it and he just has that presence about him.”

Muskett showed mobility and a strong arm during UVa’s spring game, in which he connected with JR Wilson for a 58-yard touchdown. 

It was a performance that would have likely earned him the starting job had he not won the competition by default when his main competitor, Jay Woolfolk, gave up football to concentrate on his baseball career.

Back, but not back to normal

The numbers 1, 15 and 41 were painted prominently in the end zones at Scott Stadium during UVa’s spring game in April. The players and coaches representing the Cavaliers at this summer’s ACC Kickoff media event all wore pins sporting the slogan “UVa Strong.”

Once the new season begins, there will inevitably be tributes before virtually every road game honoring the 3 players killed in the tragic shooting that shook the school’s campus last November and led to the cancellation of the season’s final 2 games.

They’ll be constant reminders that no matter how focused the returning Cavaliers might be on moving forward, things aren’t even close to returning to normal for anyone involved with the program.

“I don’t think there will ever be a sense of normalcy after something like that happens,” said running back Perris Jones, whose roommate and fellow running back Mike Hollins was severely wounded in the attack that killed Davis, Perry and Chandler. “But I think we get back to doing the best we can. When you call something normal, normal is having them here. The fact that they’ll never be here again kind of destroys that.”

Jones said it will be emotional when they return to the field for the first game back, against Tennessee in Nashville on Sept. 2. It will likely be even tougher for the 2nd game when the Cavaliers play their first home game at Scott Stadium against James Madison on Sept. 9.

“There are going to be a wide variety of emotions for sure,” Jones said. “I can imagine there will be some guys who can’t wait and some who will be sad. But I think they’ll all contribute to us playing well, because we have a point to prove. And that’s to make sure those guys are honored the right way.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Tennessee at Nashville (L)

This probably didn’t seem like a bad idea when the game was scheduled. But given the circumstances under which last season ended and the Cavaliers’ current stage of rebuilding under Elliott and his staff, UVA would have been hard-pressed to find a worse opener than playing the Vols in their home state. The only solace? Nashville’s stadium is substantially smaller than Neyland Stadium.

Week 2: vs. James Madison (W)

Emotions will be running high as the Cavaliers return to Scott Stadium for their first regular-season game since the tragedy last November. But they’ll have to stay focused on the actual task at hand against a JMU team that won 8 games last year in Year 1 as an FBS program. The most fitting tribute to Davis, Perry and Chandler will be to win the game. 

Week 3: at Maryland (L)

The Cavaliers and Terrapins haven’t met since Maryland left the ACC in 2014. Maryland won the final 2 encounters, too. But this isn’t the best time for a reunion. While UVa is struggling to find its way both on and off the field, the Terps are on the uptick in their 5th season under coach Michael Locksley. The Cavaliers will  have their hands full against 4th-year starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and his team. A Terps win would be their 3rd consecutive in the series — something the program hasn’t done since winning 16 straight from 1972-1987.

Week 4: vs. NC State (L)

It’s homecoming night in Charlottesville. Not for everyone, mind you. Just for former Cavaliers quarterback Armstrong, who returns to his former school and reminds UVa fans how explosive he and his offense can be when reunited with offensive coordinator Robert Anae.

Week 5: at Boston College (L)

The Eagles had just as difficult a season as the Cavaliers did in 2022. On the field, at least. But they’re farther along in their rebuilding process than UVa, especially with improvements they’ve made on their offensive line – a unit bolstered by the return of All-ACC guard Christian Mahogany from injury and the addition of former Cavalier Logan Taylor. 

Week 6: vs. William & Mary (W)

Elliott and his team can’t catch a break, even when they finally get an FCS team on the schedule. The Tribe are the preseason pick to win the Colonial Athletic Association this season after going 11-2 and earning a spot in the FCS playoffs in 2022. And, oh by the way, they’re led by former UVA coach Mike London. Still, it’s a rare opportunity for the Cavaliers to get a win in 2023.

Week 7: Open

Week 8: at North Carolina (L)

There’s something about “The South’s Oldest Rivalry” that always seems to produce a close game. Even when the teams appear to be mismatched. That was the case a year ago, when the Tar Heels needed an offside call on a late UVa onside kick to hold off the Cavaliers 31-28. The disparity in talent is just as large this year. But the game will probably be just as close. With a similar result.

Week 9: at Miami (L)

The Hurricanes have gone through an extreme makeover this offseason as coach Mario Cristobal retooled his roster with a large haul of veteran transfers and a top-5 national recruiting class. They’ll also get quarterback Tyler Van Dyke back from injury. Van Dyke missed last year’s meeting with UVa, an ugly contest that saw the teams go 4 full quarters and 3 overtimes before either got into the end zone. Miami won 12-9 in 4 overtimes. It won’t be nearly as close this time.

Week 10: vs. Georgia Tech (L)

Another rematch of an ugly game between offensively challenged teams. Both teams have made changes at quarterback since UVA’s 16-9 Thursday night win last season that saw the Cavaliers record 8 sacks and limit the Yellow Jackets to only 202 total yards. Tech did a better job of upgrading with the addition of Texas A&M transfer Haynes King.

Week 11: at Louisville (L)

The Cavaliers’ defense will have a hard time holding down Jeff Brohm’s Air Raid offense. Their offense will have an even more difficult time trying to score enough points to keep up with the recharged Cardinals.

Week 12: vs. Duke (L)

The Cavaliers don’t have the defense, or the offense for that matter, to keep up with the Blue Devils. Especially in Durham. Duke ended a 7-game losing streak to Virginia in blowout fashion last season. They’ll start a winning streak against the Cavs this season.

Week 13: vs. Virginia Tech (L)

The Hokies showed great sportsmanship and compassion by agreeing to cancel last year’s Commonwealth Cup  game in support of the Cavaliers during their time of mourning. The respect between the programs will continue into the future. But that might only heighten the intensity once they return to the field to resume their rivalry. It would make for a feel-good story if UVa can pull this one out and finish the season on a high note. The Hokies, however, are the better team.

2023 projection: 2-10 (0-8)

#UVAStrong

It would figure that the Cavaliers would be due for a good break or 2 after what they went through last year.

But so far, the opposite has been the case.

UVa’s best defensive player, All-ACC end Chico Bennett, suffered what has been described as a “freak” non-contact knee injury at practice. It’s still not known how serious the issue is or how long he’ll be sidelined. 

But with only 9 returning starters in total – 6 on defense – an extended absence from the lineup would be a catastrophic blow that will be difficult to overcome.

Especially against a schedule that already leaves little to no margin for error.