Saturday Road Crystal Ball: Predicting every Wake Forest football game for 2023

Editor’s note: Saturday Road’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series concludes today with Wake Forest.

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There’s a big difference in college football between building a team and building a program.

A winning team is only as good as its players. A winning program continues to win even after those players move on. That’s why Dave Clawson isn’t as concerned as many outside his Wake Forest program about the key contributors the Deacons will be without this season.

It’s a list headed by 4-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman and star pass rusher Rondell Bothroyd, both of whom left for their final year of eligibility via the transfer portal.

“We lost 11 starters. But we’re not young,” Clawson said, “A great example is at left tackle. We lost a 7th-year player, Je’Vionte’ Nash. Well, Wake is going to be young again. No, the guy that’s starting left tackle for us now is 7th-year senior Spencer Clapp.

“We have guys that maybe haven’t played a lot, but they’ve been in our program for 3, 4, 5 years, and now they’re having their opportunity to play. There’s still a maturity of our team. We’re not as experienced, but we’ll get that experience. I think we’ll be in really good shape.”

Case in point: Hartman’s replacement, Mitch Griffis.

A redshirt sophomore who has appeared in 14 career games with 1 start, Griffis has been sufficiently groomed to run the Deacons’ slow-mesh RPO offense while patiently waiting for his time to shine.

And he’s the rule, not the exception.

Even with the high-profile departures of the record-setting Hartman and Bothroyd – and as Clawson alleges, aggressive NIL offers from other schools – Wake had the 3rd-fewest transfer portal losses among Power “5” schools and the least among ACC programs with only 10.

“I look at it as a positive,” the Deacons coach said. “Like most football teams in the country, yeah, we lost some guys in the portal. I’m more happy about all the guys that stayed. We are still attempting to run a college football program at Wake Forest.

“We have a collective and I’m sure all these guys are getting something. It’s not like we’re ignoring the new age of college football, but our program is still based on retention and graduation. If you look at the amount of players who went into the portal, I would argue that we’re managing this as well as anybody in the country right now.”

Will that pay off in continued success and an 8th straight bowl bid?

Let’s break it down and see.

Receivers aplenty

Not many teams can withstand losing their top returning pass catcher. Especially after losing their WR1 from the previous season to the NFL.

Wake is the rare exception.

The Deacons suffered a major blow when Donavon Greene suffered a non-contact knee injury in practice that required surgery and will keep him out of action for 3-to-5 months. The redshirt junior caught 37 passes for 642 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Combine that with the 81 receptions, 1,096 yards and 11 touchdowns provided by New Orleans Saints draft pick AT Perry and that’s a lot of lost production.

But there’s also a lot of proven production remaining in a crowded receivers room.

Wake’s 3 other returners at the position – Jahmal Banks, Taylor Morin and Ke’Shawn Williams – combined for 126 catches and 24 touchdowns in 2022. And if that wasn’t enough talent to go around, Clawson added former 4-star prospect Walker Merrill through the transfer portal from Tennessee to go with another 4-star talent in true freshman Micah Mays.

Even without Greene, the group is still arguably the best, deepest combination of receivers in the ACC and a major boost in helping to ease the transition of their 1st-year starting quarterback.

“I’m fortunate enough to have some awesome receivers,” Griffis said.

Slow-mesh RPO explained

Besides representing the smallest FBS school in the country, Wake’s football program is best known for its unique slow-mesh RPO offense.

But what exactly is a slow-mesh RPO offense?

It’s basically a standard run-pass option attack with one major twist that makes it a nightmare to defend. The secret sauce is a mesh point between the quarterback and running back that’s held for such a long period of time that ESPN could break for a commercial and still get back to the action before the defense figures out whether the play is a run or a pass.

“It’s the modern day triple option,” Griffis said. “I can either run it or throw it or hand it off. It’s super hard to defend because it’s a numbers game and the offense has the advantage.”

Offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero, who has been with Clawson for more than a decade, came up with the strategy shortly after arriving in Winston-Salem as a way of helping then-quarterback John Wolford survive after getting sacked 113 times from 2014-16.

The slow meshes force pass rushers to hesitate before heading into the backfield, giving the quarterback an extra split second to set up, find his receiver downfield and deliver the ball.

It has produced nearly 400 school records over the past 5 seasons, with the Deacons setting new high-water marks for points per game, offensive yards, passing yards and 1st downs. They are the only program in the country to average at least 30 points per game every year since 2017.

Turnover turnaround

The Deacons led the ACC with 29 takeaways (15 interceptions/14 fumbles) and a turnover margin of plus-9 in 2021. That production slipped to only 16 forced turnovers (9 fumbles/7 interceptions) and a minus-3 margin last season.

It’s a difference that could potentially have reversed the outcomes against Clemson, North Carolina and Duke. All 3 of those losses were decided by a field goal or less, or in double overtime.

Linebacker Chase Jones isn’t sure what caused such a significant dropoff. But he said that he and his teammates are working hard to reverse the trend back in their favor for the coming season.

“I think (defensive coordinator Brad) Lambert has done a really good job implementing drill work, punching at the football and being ball-hawks,” Jones said, “making sure if we get the opportunity to intercept the ball, we come through with it. That’s something we’ve been emphasizing over the offseason and spring ball and something we’re working at every day.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Elon (W)

Griffis got his feet wet pinch-hitting for Hartman in last year’s opener against VMI. And he showed promise. This year’s debut will also come against an FCS opponent. Only this one made the playoffs in 2022. The (slightly) higher degree of difficulty will only help Wake’s new quarterback as he eases into his starting role.

Week 2: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

The Deacons finished 10th in the ACC and tied for 86th nationally with only 16 takeaways last year. Three of those came against the Commodores in a 45-25 win in Nashville. Their offense also piled up 451 yards in the victory. This year’s game is at home. Expect more of the same.

Week 3: at Old Dominion (W)

This is a tricky one. The Monarchs aren’t very good, but they were good enough to beat Virginia Tech at home last season. As long as the Deacons stay focused and don’t get caught napping, they’ll be fine in this rescheduling of a game canceled by COVID in 2020.

Week 4: vs. Georgia Tech (W)

This isn’t a gimme by any stretch of the imagination. But a home game against a team in the early to mid stages of a rebuild isn’t the worst way to begin your conference schedule. The Deacons are 19-5 in the month of September since 2016. Add another unbeaten opening month to the ledger.

Week 5: Open

Week 6: at Clemson (L)

The Deacons had their shot last year when they extended the Tigers to double overtime before losing their 14th straight to their former Atlantic Division rival. The chances of an upset are even slimmer this year because of the location. Not only has Wake lost 11 straight at Death Valley since their 29-19 win in 1998, the average margin of those defeats is 27 points.

Week 7: at Virginia Tech (W)

In the old days, this would have been a cruel 1-2 punch, having to play back-to-back road games in Clemson and Blacksburg. But “Enter Sandman” doesn’t have the same kind of intimidation factor as it once did with a Hokies team that is only a shadow of its former self.

Week 8: vs. Pittsburgh (L)

Not much has changed since Pitt used its physical advantage to push Wake around in the 2021 league championship game. Not only that, but of the Deacons’ 8 wins last year, only 1 came when they were an underdog. The Panthers will be favored again in this one. Advantage, Pitt.

Week 9: vs. Florida State (L)

The Seminoles lead the all-time series 30-9. But the Deacons have won the past 3. This is the best FSU team they’ll have faced during that stretch. And they won’t have Hartman slinging the ball all over the yard. It could get interesting if Wake can jump ahead early and get in the Seminoles’ head again. But there’s just too much talent on the other side of the line this time.

Week 10: at Duke (L)

Riley Leonard torched the Deacons for a career-high 391 yards and 4 passing touchdowns in last year’s regular-season finale, which Duke won 34-31. Wake’s offense with Griffis, though still capable, will have a hard time matching Duke’s star quarterback pass-for-pass.

Week 11: vs. NC State (W)

Superman had his Kryptonite. The Wolfpack have Winston-Salem. They’ve only won once in their past 10 visits to the venue now known as Allegacy Stadium, with the only victory coming in 2015. By contrast, State has won 7 of the past 8 against the Deacons in Raleigh. There’s no rhyme or reason for the pattern. But it’s real. And it will continue again this year.

Week 12: at Notre Dame (L)

The Sam Hartman reunion game. The grad transfer quarterback gets a shot at playing his old team. His receivers with the Irish aren’t as good as the group he left behind in Winston-Salem. At the same time, he’ll feel a lot safer in the pocket behind a bigger, more talented offensive line.

Week 13: at Syracuse (W)

Wake’s slow mesh has given the Orange fits. Wake has averaged 40 points over the past 6 meetings with Syracuse, including a 60-burger in 2017 and 45 in their 3rd straight win in the series last year. Banks, Morin and the others will make it look like a track meet again as the Deacons clinch a winning record heading into the postseason for the 8th straight year.

2022 projection: 7-5 (4-4)

#GoDeacs

The popular narrative about this year’s Deacons is that they’re primed to take a step back because of the personnel losses they suffered. They’re picked to finish 9th in the ACC’s preseason poll.

But it would be a mistake to underestimate Clawson and a program that is enjoying an amazing run of consistency. Since 2016, Wake’s combined win total for each 2-year segment has added up to exactly 15.

They won 7 in 2016, followed by 8 in 2017, repeating the pattern again in 2018-19. Wake then followed up a 4-win season during the disrupted COVID campaign of 2020 by winning 11 times on the way to an Atlantic Division championship in 2021.

Last year’s team posted an 8-4 mark.

“I said this a few years ago that I hope we get to the point at Wake Forest that in our down years we’re still getting 7 and 8 wins and getting the bowls,” Clawson said. “Obviously 2 years ago when we had 11 wins and played for the ACC Championship, that’s always the standard we would like to get to. But the way that I approach it is that we want to maximize the ability of every team we have.”

The 2023 Deacons won’t be as talented as they’ve been in some areas. Or experienced in others. But there’s enough continuity within the program to avoid a significant dropoff. And put them in a position to exceed expectations.

As they usually do.